Dallas Devries - The Mets Runway & Math Reality

 

Billy Eppler addressed the media on Tuesday.  The thing that stood out to me the most were his thoughts on the trade deadline.

"We've got a decent amount of runway before the deadline. We hope that we can change the story. If we can, then we can add. If it doesn't, then we'll just have to create other opportunities and see what else exists out there" – Billy Eppler

Now I’m an optimistic person by nature.  I want the Mets to win just as much as everyone else. However the math simply doesn’t support this comment.  I decided to break down what the Mets need to do to sneak into the last Wild Card position.  

The key is the performance of the last WC spot which is currently the Dodgers. They are on pace to win over 91 games as of Wednesday afternoon. The Mets need a staggering 56 wins over their next 83 games (.675) to exceed this total.  I don’t need to tell you that this is an improbable task.  The red hot Rays who sport the best record in baseball at the moment have only won at a .659 rate.  This would mean winning every single series from now until the end of the year.

3rd WC win % (Dodgers)	0.564
3rd WC 162 game pace	91.368
Mets Wins	36
Remaining games	83
Games need to get to 3WC	56
Winning % of remaining games for WC	0.675
Winning % of top team in MLB (Rays)	0.659

Even the most optimistic fan would have a hard time arguing this roster has this kind of streak in them.

Alternatively you could argue that the top WC spots go on a sustained losing streak.  Let’s look at this possibility.

Marlins	0.575
Giants	0.570
Dodgers	0.564
Phillies	0.526
Brewers	0.519

If one of the Marlins, Giants, Dodgers performs very poorly during the 2nd half and the Phillies & Brewers don’t surpass the .526 win rate they are at now let's redo the math.

3rd WC win % (Dodgers)	0.526
3rd WC 162 game pace	85.212
Mets Wins	36
Remaining games	83
Games need to get to 3WC	50
Winning % of remaining games for WC	0.602

Even in this new contrived & very unlikely scenario where the third Wild Card drops to a .526 winning percentage (85 wins)  the Mets would still need to win at a .600 clip to surpass this.  

This would be their best path into the dance but would basically require at least 3 of the top 5 other contending teams to play terribly in the 2nd half.  You could argue the Phillies (-12) / Brewers (-25) / Marlins(-6) all have negative run differentials and have outplayed their current win rates but the Mets also have a -14 run differential themselves.  This brings the Cubs (+28) and Padres (+26) into the conversation as well.  They have underperformed their differential and a strong run by them is another barrier to the Mets chances.

This brings me back to Eppler's observations and the harsh reality: The Mets simply cannot afford to buy at the deadline, given these low probabilities. Yet, maintaining the status quo isn't an option either.  Unless they pull off an unprecedented winning streak over the next four weeks, their best strategy is to sell.  By doing so, they can maximize the value of the players that won’t feature in their 2024 plans. Furthermore, this strategy also provides an opportunity to give the “baby” Mets ample playing time, allowing them to adapt and prepare for the upcoming year.