Tom Brennan - Puzzling Mets Prospect Rankings; and So Much More!

Ronny Mauricio

I get easily puzzled.  How about you?

When I go to the store and compare the same product, but the 28 ounce one is more expensive than the 40 ounce one, I get puzzled. Stuff like that. The puzzle,ent of an amateur statistician.

Anyway, afoer all, I'm seeing what 22 year old Ronny Mauricio is doing this year in AAA, aren't you?

.325, with 36 extra base hits, 43 runs, 41 RBIs, and 11 steals in 65 games (thru Sunday, June 18).  Just 47 Ks.

And prior to that, in AA, in 540 at bats, 27 doubles, 27 HRs, 90 RBIs.

And the other night, batting lefty, he crushed two majestic, towering HRs to left center, 441 and 431 feet.  Entirely reminiscent of Darryl Strawberry.

Outstanding, right?...but...

Ranked # 4 on the Mets' site top 30 prospects list.

We fans and prognosticators all root for OF Alex Ramirez, but Alex, who is 21 months younger than Mauricio, is two rungs lower at High A Brooklyn.

There, in 56 games, .240 with 14 extra base hits, 28 runs and 30 RBIs.

And, 53 Ks in 56 games.

Ranked # 2. 

I'm puzzled.

Next...

Matt Allan, who has 10 innings since 2019,  

Ranked 20th.

Christian Scott, who this year in A and AA, in 32 innings, has 39 Ks, a 0.78 WHIP, 2.56 ERA and 2-1 record.  

Ranked 27th.

I'm puzzled.

Next...

William Lugo, age 21 IF, in Brooklyn, hitting .190/.267/.301 in 153 at bats, and 11 career steals in 243 games. 

Ranked 23rd.

Jose Peroza, just a 18 months older IF than William, is in AA, and in 38 games, has 31 RBIs and .298/.389/.545, and 22 steals in 404 pro games, and his season totals would be greater, most likely, had he not missed a few weeks. And he hit .337 from July to season’s end in 2022. But...

Not even ranked in the Mets top 30? Really?

I'm puzzled.

Next...

Jett Williams, 5’6”, age 19 IF, in St Lucie, is hitting .222/.416/.361 in 50 games, and 19 steals. 

Ranked 3rd. Deservedly. Expect big things from the Golden Jett.

Matt Rudick, yes, he is 24, 5 years older older than Jett, but is also 5’6”. He leads the Eastern League by far in on base % and is at .294/.440/.487, 11 steals, and on base 175 time in his last 93 games, but...

Not even ranked in the Mets top 30? Really?

I'm puzzled.

I could go on - but you probably get the point, unless I’ve puzzled you.

That being...

Potential - and production - need to have a serious handshake when ranking prospects.

Don’t ignore the performance of the likes of Peroza and Rudick. They’re indisputably Top 30. (Heck, I had both in my top 25 this past off season, and nothing in 2023 has changed my mind about them being ranked.)

And prospect re-rankings should be monthly.

For instance, Jesus Baez (# 10; .143), Willie Fanas (# 24; .158)) and Simon Juan (# 25; .200) are all now in the Florida Complex League.  Heading into Wednesday's action, the trio are 16 for 96 (.167), with a HR apiece.  And then went 1 for 11 on Wednesday.  

Career-wise, the trio are hitting .230, .216, and .229, respectively, against DSL and FCL competition.

I'd move them down, and get Peroza and Rudick in there, along with unranked lefty Daniel Juarez, who in his career is 9-4, 199 Ks in 140 IP, and a 2.19 ERA. and 0.86 in 17 games this year.  Juarez has been crushing it, yet can't even sneak in at # 30?  

When that bonus baby Baez-Fanas-Juan trio ignites for a stretch, move them back up higher.

I would also remove any player who will miss all of the season, which includes Matt Allan and Bryce Montes de Oca.  

Put them instead in a footnote ("would have been ranked in the Top 30, but missing the entire season due to injury").

Add them back when healthy.  That would add a few players to the Top 30 list, which no doubt would thrill and encourage them.

AMAZING METS MINORS EVENT OF THE NIGHT:

Jace Beck, who incredibly walked 21 and fanned 35 in his first 16 innings this year, threw 2 hitless innings last night, walking none and fanning none. What an amazing game considering his prior season stats.

Team-wise, St Lucie lost 17-0 in a 6 inning game. It’s just one game, they say. They actually played two, losing the other by a score of 3-2.

METS?

Mets lost.  It’s what they do. 

Now 20-33 in last 53 games, shades of the 1967 Mets.

Losers lose. Winners win. Somewhere, Edwin Diaz is rehabbing.

Bill Clinton quote: “It’s the pitching, STUPID!”

The Mets have won 34 games. In games won, they have the 10th best team ERA…2.38. 

Cubs, surprisingly, are best at a superlative 1.61 in their wins. 

(In the Year of the Pitcher, in 1968, the Mets’ ERA in their 73 wins? An insane 1.38, with the Braves best at 1.21).

In the Mets’ 40 losses, they have the 26th worst team ERA, 6.82. Teams 27 thru 29 are only slightly worse in ERA in losses.  

(In the Year of the Pitcher, in 1968, the Mets’ ERA in their 89 losses? Exactly 3 runs per game better than this year, at 3.82.)

Worst team in losses in 2023, shockingly? 

The Dodgers, who in their 33 losses sport a whopping 7.67 ERA.

The best in 2023 team ERA in losses, at 4.91? 

Go ahead. Be Brave, take a guess.

SEE THE BALL, SWING, HIT THE BALL

The man of seemingly nothing but walks and Ks, Daniel Vogelbach, is finally swinging these days - with dividends:

7 for 17, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs in last 5. And just 2 walks. 

You swing, you hit. Kid stuff.