Mike's Mets - The Long and Winding Road to Somewhere Better

 By Mike Steffanos

2023 took a disastrous turn for the New York Mets. 2024 represents a new start. But the road ahead is not without potholes.

As the trade deadline rapidly approaches, the question of which direction the New York Mets might choose to take lingers as their hopes for making a real playoff push barely cling to life support. The most likely scenario continues to be the Mets mostly standing pat and riding out the second half with ever-dwindling hopes of a Wild Card slot. I agree with that approach, with the caveat that the club should certainly listen to offers on any asset they control that a contender covets. Perhaps a team out there might think so highly of David Robertson or Brooks Raley that they would be willing to trade at least one valuable prospect for one or both of them. I wouldn't want to see the Mets make any deal for dubious prospects that don't have a realistic hope of becoming contributors. But you can occasionally pry an interesting prospect from another team that might make a deal worthwhile.

While I don't foresee the Mets being big-time sellers at the deadline, that doesn't mean I'm buying into their chances at the playoffs. A famous Maya Angelou quote seems appropriate: "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time." While a ballclub is a collection of someones rather than a single individual, Angelou's quote sums up the 2023 Mets quite nicely. They've already shown us who they are over and over again. As I write this, the Mets are 7 games out of the final Wild Card slot (currently the Reds), with the Cubs, Padres, Marlins, and Phillies all between them and Cincinnati. I refuse to even consider the possibility of a playoff run until the Mets hit the .500 mark. Frankly, I'm not at all confident they can accomplish that before the season ends.

But whatever. I didn't choose to spend today complaining about how badly this club has comported itself. Barring a miracle, they'll go down in MLB history as a historic failure. Essentially they buried themselves with a horrendous 11-22 stretch from May 23 - June 30, a .333 winning percentage for just over 20% of their schedule. Through splitting Saturday's games with the Red Sox, the Mets' record outside that stretch is 35-30. Had they just been able to tread water over that dreadful stretch — let's say a still-bad 15-18 record with just 4 more wins over those 33 games — the Mets would be sitting 50-48 and 3 games out of the final Wild Card spot. Not what you would hope for from an all-time record payroll, but they'd have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot. The consequences of going so long without righting the ship are readily apparent.

I've written a lot here about Steve Cohen's dream of turning this club into a consistent winner. I fully support that vision while understanding the difficulty of making that a reality. Particularly while simultaneously trying to hold onto prospects and transform the farm system into an engine that can sustain the club's success. But I believe that 33-game stretch has implications beyond just rendering the 2023 season a huge disappointment. Success on the field attracts people to an organization, whether it's ballplayers or executives you'd like to lure to New York. With the Mets now likely to fall short of a playoff berth for the second time in three years, the Mets will be a tougher sell to anyone who really wants to be a part of a winner.

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