Wow! Productive Ones!
My Productive Top 30 is below, with pre-viewing notes as follows:
You don’t produce, you get demerits. Downgrades.
You produce, though? UPGRADES!
Some guys in the Mets Top 30 who are in the Mets’ official Top 30 did not produce enough to break into my venerable list.
Guys out for all of the 2023 season were dropped to make room for 2023 producers. A player’s hypothetical ceiling is also considered of course.
Only included one or two zero-play-in-2023 guys, and only IF they are expected back in 2023, like my # 20 Ziegler.
MATT ALLAN, BRYCE MONTES DE OCA?
See you hopefully in 2024. But not in Top 30 for now.
I added a few brief, explanatory notes alongside a few of the less obvious guys, such as Matt Rudick and Rowdey Jordan, to help readers see why I included them where I did.
This list excludes all recent draftees - for now. (P.S. Signings have started, Mack should be providing info there soon).
The Brennan Top 30 also excludes MARK VIENTOS, who simply is a major leaguer playing in AAA. Waiting for a runway to cleat at LaGuardia so he can land in Queens again.
I consider him to be past the status of prospect. He had 3 AAA hits Friday night.
THE LIST….
1. C Kevin Parada - Brooklyn Cyclones
2. IF/OF Ronny Mauricio - Syracuse Mets -13th HR last night, with an outfield assist from left field.
3. IF Jett Williams - St Lucie Mets
4. RHSP Blade Tidwell - Brooklyn Cyclones
5. RHSP Mike Vasil - Syracuse Mets
6. 3B Jacob Reimer - raking in FCL at age 19. To me, a top 10 guy.
7. RHSP Dominic Hamel - Binghamton Rumble Ponies
8. CF Alex Ramirez - High A - weak season drops him about 4 notches.
9. Matt Rudick, IF/Utility - AA - on base 174 times in his last 94 games. Wow.
10. IF Jesus Baez - Florida Complex League 18 year old talent. Tempted to put higher producing Junior Tilien here instead - maybe next time.
11. Coleman Crow - AA righty on fire in April, missed last 10 weeks. Hoping…
12. Nick Morabito - 20 year old in FCL, has really heated up, prepared for takeoff.
13. RHSP Christian Scott - dealing like an ace in High A and AA in 2023.
14. RHSP Tyler Stuart - death to S. Atlantic League hitters in 2023. 6’9”
15. OF Rowdey Jordan - hitting .311 with a .411 OBP and .540 slug % with 9 steals over his last 30 games in AA spanning June and July, before his 2 for 3 night on July 14. Also on base 9 times with 2 steals in his last 5 May games. Hot Dang, that’s producing! Can the Top 10 be far off? C’mon, Mack, get rowdy for the sizzling hot Rowdey J.
16. C Julio Zayas - age 17, in DSL, flat-out raking. 102 ABs, .324, .578 slug %.
17. RHRP Paul Gervase - High Ks, minuscule ERA. 6’10”
18. RHSP Layonel Ovalles - 2-4, 4.50 in St Lucie. He is 20. We’ll see.
19. Branny de Oleo, DSL infielder - producing at dish, OK? A fan of Bran.
20. RHSP Calvin Ziegler - no IP in 2023, not many in 2022, BUT high potential.
21. Jefry Rosa - OF - 7 DSL HRs in his first 16 games? DUDE IS PRODUCING.
22. Jace Beck RHRP, High A ball K machine (42 in 21 IP) with seemingly improving control recently. 6’9”
23. Luis Moreno (last 6 AA starts, 5 total earned runs) - moving Moreno (6-3 this season) ahead of Jose Butto, who the Mets had at #13(?)…Sorry to all you Beavis and Butto fans out there…I dropped Jose Butto out of my top 30…he was hit hard as a brief Met, and is 2-4, 5.81 in 2023 AAA. Meh.
24. Jose Peroza - AA IF - like him a lot, want to see steeper improvement.
25. Quinn Brodey - best two-way player we’ve got. Nice first pitching year.
26. Willy Fanas - 19 year old outfielder starting to rev it up.
27. LHRP Daniel Juarez - great relief year in High A/ AA. Future Mets pen guy?
28. RHSP Landon Marceaux - new guy, has #s like ex-minors P Andrew Church.
29. Daiverson Gutierrez - miserable DSL start for bonus C, recent 4 hit game.
30 Christoper Larez - 17 year old SS in DSL. Hitting.268 with 9 steals in 82 ABs,
I’d have put Luis R Rodriguez, who like Butto is in the formal Mets top 30 list, even ahead of Butto - except Rodriguez missed all 2022, and just 5 IP since back in 2023. Grade thus is incomplete for Luis R, so he is out of my top 30.
I just like pitchers who actually pitch…I’m just weird like that.
Thought about adding Wyatt Young in the list here, but lost too much ground since 2022. Playing better of late, but hasn’t gotten HOT.
Also, I really wanted to include 20 HR hitting Luke Ritter, but he fans too much.
Junior Tilien is close here, too. Could easily have slotted somewhere in the 20s. Junior is HOT of late. Next time Junior.
Thought a bit about Joe Suozzi, too, fine year, but insufficient power in 2023.
Thought about 1B JT Schwartz, too, but just 162 games and 8 HRs since being drafted 111th overall in 2021. You gotta stay healthy, play, and hit as a hitter to make my top 30. Has 8 HRs in 670 pro PAs as a first baseman, which is sub-par. Reminds me of Jayce Boyd.We need JT Power.
Anyway, JT #s sounds like Dom Smith to me. We already had one of those at IB in Dom. Dom in 348 Nationals PAs this year? An awful 20 RBIs.
Sadly, you know who has almost identical numbers (average, at bats, HRs, RBIs) to Smith this year? Jeff McNeil.
- You didn’t switch to his old locker, did you, Jeff?
This 30 man Brennan producing prospect list is more changeable than the Mets’ list, since I weight production much more heavily than they do. This time last year, Rudick and Rowdey were not in my top 100. Now my # 9 and # 15.
Anyone you think I am nuts for leaving out? Name names, prove your case.
SHRUGGING IT OFF:
In a 2 week period in 1969, from July 30 thru August 13, the Mets faced their fellow expansionists, the Houston Astros, six times, losing all 6 games and being outscored by a combined 48-17.
What did they do? Whimper? Crawl up in a ball? Roll out the “woe is me’s”?
Nope.
Won almost every game from then on, going 38-11 over their last 49 regular season games.
A history lesson for the 2023 Mets to consider.
LOOKING FOR A SIGN:
Would the Magic Be Backafter the All Star Break?
One looks for signs. First Mets’ batter up, Nimmo, crushes a HR…great sign.
But no, it hit the top edge of the fence and stayed in. BAD SIGN.
Only Mets hit in a shutout loss. REALLY BAD SIGN.
Lastly, a NY Post article by Larry Brooks this AM had this heading:
Tom,
ReplyDeleteWhere do our recently signed 2023 draftees place in your top 30?
Not yet on the sale Tom, not yet.
ReplyDeleteI like the list but have to quibble with you on leaving Simon Juan off. Can’t put the bonus baby catcher and leave Juan off. He also has picked it up a bit as of late. Where is Consuerga?
way to go, Tom Thanx
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete“This list excludes all recent draftees - for now.”
Gus- howdy…
Juan - thought about him, but two straight years of non hitting? In the 30s until Juan hits.
Consuegra? Getting older, hitting mediocre. Also 30s for now.
SELL, SELL, SELL! anybody who is not projected to be part of our core 2 years from now.
ReplyDeleteGet as many prospects as you can in addition to our 23 draft picks should help build up the farm. Young guys bring you juice...get Vientos & Mauricio up here and playing every day, as soon as you can unload the short-timers. THIS IS NOT OUR YEAR...accept that and do what you need to do. And hire David Stearns in the off-season to run this team for Uncle Steve.
I agree with Tom. I too cannot ignore performance when looking at prospect ratings.
ReplyDeleteI understand there are players with great tools, and they too, should be included...somewhere on a list. But for how long? Guys still in the dumps after 3 or 4 years are approaching 5-yr FA. At some point you have to cross them off. We've had many high prospects who NEVER panned out compared to the late bloomers who did. These guys were drafted based on their tools, that's their shot, but at some point produce or go home.
I like your list and I agree with almost everyone. The one person I disagree with was Marceaux. They tried him at AA and he did terrible and now he is pitching at FCL and still not doing good. He is not rehabbing either he was transferred.
ReplyDeletePeople missing from your List.
Wilson Esterlin RHP SP at FCL. Was recently written up by BA. He has a 2.82 ERA with 22IP,34K and 1.12 WHIP
Yohairo Cuevas OF at FCL. He is hitting 0.288 with 4 hrs.
Cameron Foster SP at Brooklyn. He is improving as the year goes on. In June he had a 3.27 ERA and so far in July 0.84. Last outing was 5.2IP, 1 run, 2BB, 9K
Luis A. Rodrigues RP, recently promoted to St. Lucie. So far in 12IP has an 0.00 ERA and only given up 1 hit.
Diego Mosquera SS at FCL is hitting 0.310 in 87 AB
Dylan Tebrake, recently promoted to AA. RP has an 2.16 ERA at Brooklyn. 26IP/40K
I forgot about Junior Tilien- After hitting only 0.250 at St. Lucie the Mets promoted him to Brooklyn and he is hitting 0.273 and 0.819:OPS. Doing great.
ReplyDeleteRaw, all good points, especially Tebrake. Thanks much
ReplyDeleteAnother person I forgot is Jostyn Almonte in DSL OF hitting 0.338, 12SB and 3hrs.
ReplyDeleteRosa just hit his 8th.
Jostyn Almonte is pushing to bust his way into the top 30, agreed.
ReplyDeleteNickel, we surely agree. But guys can turn it. I know going into 2022, I was a bit down on Ronny Mauricio. He has about 1100 plate appearances in 2022 and 2023 and has improved immensely over that time, Maybe Consuegra and even Alex Ramirez will do likewise.
ReplyDeletewell, Mauricio is one guy I have never been down on...with the Mets in the crapper, he should already be getting a look in NY.
ReplyDeleteWe will need to get rid of at least 23 guys to make room for the new draftees (if we sign them all). That won't be hard to do, IMO.