Mike's Mets - Bad Actors

 

By Mike Steffanos

Bad Actor: a mean, ill-tempered, troublemaking, or evil person.

Dictionary.com

As the 2023 New York Mets' season grinds down to what surely will feel like a merciful death, most of us Mets fans are hoping and praying for a 2024 season that is at least compelling, if not triumphant. How that plays out depends on who suits up for the team next year, and that, of course, will greatly depend on who is making what is sure to be a series of significant decisions this offseason. David Stearns, or whoever calls the shots, must hit on most of those calls. The implications of those choices go way beyond 2024 for the Mets. The idea of sustained winning still feels like the ever-elusive white whale for long-time fans like myself. And even Steve Cohen isn't going to stomach massive deficit spending forever.

As the trading deadline approached, I was preparing myself mentally for news that Pete Alonso had been shipped out of town. Apparently, the Mets were never very close to trading their premier slugger, but that certainly doesn't ensure Alonso will be manning first base for the next Mets playoff team. With Pete set to be an unrestricted free agent following the 2024 season, Alonso's future will likely be one of the first decisions the person running baseball operations will face.

Over the weekend, the Post's Joel Sherman looked at a potential deal to keep Pete Alonso with the Mets, pointing out that there is currently a gulf between the Mets' value on their slugger and what his representation is seeking. It's something I've been thinking about myself.

While Alonso is a good enough athlete who works hard to keep in peak shape, he is not the elite type of athlete that tends to age the best into his mid to late-30s. In 2025, the first year of Alonso's next contract, Pete will be 30 years old. I'm sure he will still be a very good player at the beginning of that contract, but I question whether a 35-year-old Alonso will still be mashing. Beyond that — and I'm almost certain Pete will get a deal that stretches well beyond age 35 — I'd be worried about his productivity. We've seen some sluggers fall off a cliff production-wise as they advance into their 30s.

If you click over to Pete Alonso's page on Baseball-Reference.com and scroll down toward the bottom, you'll find B-R's list of "Similar Batters through 27," Pete's age through the 2022 season. I have to note that similarity scores are not destiny, but some of the names on the list underlined my concerns about going too deep with Alonso on a contract. Cecil Fielder was the top comp. Fielder's last season as a dominant power hitter was at age 32. By OPS+, you must go back further to Cecil's age 29 campaign. In Fielder's 5 years in MLB, age 30 or above, he slashed a combined .249/.343/.458. That production declined rapidly.

Skipping over young, active players, Chris Davis was the next similar batter on the list who completed his career. He also played 5 seasons at age 30 or above, slashing an abysmal .196/.291/.379 with an OPS+ of 80.

Tony Clark, who played a season with the Mets at age 31, played through his age 37 season. He slashed .238/.313/.456 over those 8 seasons. Not terrible, but not dominant numbers in the steroid era, particularly for a first baseman. His OPS+ over that stretch was 97.

One more name caught my eye. Mets fans who have been around for a while will remember Mo Vaughn mainly as a punchline, but he was once one of the most feared sluggers in baseball. In his prime, 6 years from age 25 through age 30, Vaughn slashed .315/.405/.569, hit 213 HR, and won an AL MVP. His OPS+ over those years was a ridiculous 148.

But Boston let him sign with the Angels as a free agent following his age-30 season. Vaughn was decent — but hardly MVP-caliber — for 2 seasons in Anaheim, then missed the entire 2001 season with an injury. The Angels and Mets swapped disappointments, with pitcher Kevin Appier going to Anaheim. Mo was decent with the Mets in his first season in 2002, then missed most of 2003 and all of 2004. The Red Sox had no reason to regret not signing their star long-term.

As I said, similarity scores are not destiny. Davis, even in his prime, struck out more than Pete does. Mo Vaughn was, to put it charitably, a bit on the husky side in his weight. Alonso has 181 homers already in his time in MLB, while Clark only amassed 251 in a 17-year career. But it's the rare big slugger who doesn't decline pretty quickly as he advances through his 30s, and those are usually the exceptional athletes or others in the steroid era that had some artificial help in staying ahead of Father Time.

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