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8/30/23

Reese Kaplan -- Predicting the Returning 2023 Mets for 2024


How many of the 2023 Mets players do you see having a role in 2024?  Now before you get on my case regarding prospective trades and the like, let's confine this question to people in the majors right now or at least at the AAA level who you think have the stuff to play among the best in the game.


Pete Alonso -- Despite the rumors of a trade and the viable reasons it might make sense, the fear of fanbase retaliation will likely preempt any efforts to obtain a package of hot prospects and saving payroll dollars.  Expect him back for one more run at the major money due when he becomes a free agent at the end of 2024.

Jeff McNeil -- The latter part of the season reminds everyone why he won the batting title in 2022.  He can hit.  No doubt about it.  He's not the best runner nor the flashiest fielder, but his versatility combined with his propensity to make contact suggest that he earned the long contract extension.

Francisco Lindor -- Although he was well below average in 2021, he showed in 2022 what he was capable of doing.  In 2023 his batting average is down, but his power, speed and defense make him one of the top 3-4 shortstops in all of baseball.  His contract is prohibitively expensive, so get used to seeing him on the left side of the infield and appreciate what he can do.


Brett Baty
-- The corresponding third base choice, Mark Vientos, is not on this list.  They are apparently content to use the remainder of this lost season to allow Baty to regroup in AAA and to see what, if anything Vientos can offer in the majors.  It's quite clear they regard Baty more highly than Vientos so a betting person would wager he is your opening day third baseman.

Francisco Alvarez -- Yes, he has home run power that everyone had heard about.  He is turning himself into at least an average major league catcher.  And he's just 21 years old.  While he's slumping a bit due to late season exhaustion, he is the catcher of the present and the future.  

Tomas Nido -- Remember him?  After his vision issues wreaked havoc both with his offense and defense, he was banished upstate where he has quietly turned himself into a solid hitter.  Expect him to be back in his number two slot behind Alvarez.

Brandon Nimmo -- Many folks were glad he was back but they were accustomed to his game of on base percentage and increasingly acrobatic center field defense.  They were not expecting him to morph into a 20+ home run hitter.  He feels that as pitchers adjust their approach to the game he must approach each at bat differently and the result is more power.  He's showing himself to be well worth Steve Cohen's investment.

DJ Stewart -- He's a bit of a surprise for this list, but his late season regular efforts have been terrific and while he may not convince the manager to make him an everyday outfielder, he is certainly a lot more palatable as a substitute than some of the others who audtioned and failed in this role.  He has power for sure and while his defense is kind of Roger Cedeno-like, if he drives in runs people will tolerate it.


Kodai Senga
-- He should be getting some serious consideration for the NL Rookie of the Year.  Now to be fair, a 30 year old as a rookie is a bit of a fish out of water scenario, but that's how foreign imports work in MLB.  He's everything the Mets hoped he would become and for now he appears to be the ace of the staff going into 2024.

Jose Quintana -- A late arrival in 2023, he's been every bit as good (or better) that people had hoped.  He is surely going to be back and hopefully healthy to be a number two or three in the new 2024 starting rotation.  

Mike Vasil -- Get to know the name.  He was brilliant in AA but struggled initially upon promotion to Syracuse.  That performance level has sure changed and in his last several starts he looks ready to move up again.  Considering the Mets will have three starting pitching vacancies going into 2024 he will get a long look in Port St. Lucie during Spring Training.

Edwin Diaz -- Right now there is talk about the Fireman of the Year candidate making a September appearance to reassure both himself and his employer that he is ready to resume his domination of National League hitters.  We all hope he doesn't rush back too soon, but 2-3 appearances in late September would make everyone very happy indeed.

Adam Ottavino -- He signed a two year deal in the off season, so the veteran setup guy is slated to be part of the bullpen for the third straight year.  That's not a bad thing at all (unless it comes to holding baserunners from attempting to steal).

Brooks Raley -- It is apparent that his out of nowhere 2022 performance for Tampa was not an outlier.  He's repeated his domination in nearly every one of his appearances and the Mets certainly need some southpaw help in the bullpen.  


As for the rest of the roster...they are divided into likely, likely not and definitely not.  The new arrivals from the midseason trades are not quite ready to start the year at Citifield and we have not yet explored trades nor free agent signings.  Is there anyone you feel is a definite on the 2024 roster?  Obviously folks like Starling Marte and Drew Smith are likely to return but at this point they're not on the definite list.
 

17 comments:

  1. Meanwhile, keep losing. High draft picks like # 6 Pete Crow Armstrong are how you rebuild winners…when you keep them.

    This list may include Megill and Peterson before season’s end.

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    1. LOTTERY PICK UPDATE

      things really tightened up last night due to a big Pittsbugh win

      Right now

      DET. ----
      PITT. ----
      METS. 1/2

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  2. Reminder -- neither of Peterson nor Megill have put together a single credible season demonstrating consistent quality. I think your better option here is to hope for a flourish finish for both and parlay them in trade to fill other needs with AA/AAA starting pitchers or outfielders or relievers.

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    1. I still believe both of these failed starters would make good middle pen pieces

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  3. Seems too flattering for a team that will finish the season below .500. Maybe more will go.

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  4. I’d like to see Pete traded. I love the homeruns, but he does nothing to extend the lineup and I believe that power will soon be more 25-30 homerun power with low average than 40 homerun power. I put Mauricio at 3B and Baty at 1B. See what prospects you can get, and sign Ohtani as a more well rounded option to be the DH. Then, go get a real LF and leave McNeil at 2B. Let’s start with that.

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    1. Gus

      Where do I start ?

      1. The Mets need consistent hitters. Lindor and Alonso are the Mets consistent hitters. Forget batting averages. Look at their ranking in key offensive categories

      2. You can't keep shuffling around players to play positions they never regularly play. You can do that in the minors but not in the majors

      3. Baty is a third baseman. He will live or die at that position

      4. This was supposed to be the season that the kids were suppose to produce. They didn't.

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    2. The outfield will not be solid until the two prospects they got for Verlander are ready in 2024

      Also don't count out Acùna in center

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  5. On the mound, use Peterson and Megill to get to Ohtani in 2024. Sign at least one of the young pitchers - I prefer Urias - and another starter. The bullpen can start with Otto, Smith, Diaz, Raley, Gott, de Oca, Megill, and one of Hartwig, Curtiss, or whomever

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    1. You can't project Ohtani as a member of the 2024 rotation

      His future maybe as a DH only

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  6. For the bench, Narvaez will exercise his option because, like where else is he getting $7MM, Stewart can work, add Guillorme, and Vientos, no Ortega, no Mendick, no Locastro.. The best deal is if Vientos can play LF regularly, then you can get a backup CF type.

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  7. MeGill.Petersen,Vogelbach,we don’t need them. Been there,done that,time to move on.

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  8. That lottery pick just got a lot harder to get with Angels cutting all those guys.

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  9. I’d let Vientos alternate between LF and 3B the rest of the year, bring up Mauricio and Baty to move them around.

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  10. Drew Smith? He’d make a great pitcher for home run derby.

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  11. Unless Marte is unable to regain his health, he's shown himself to be a key to both Offense and Defense. I certainly won't write him off at this point.

    As for Peterson/Megill, we don't know if the '22 version is real and the '23 one an outlier. IMO the next 5 weeks will do a lot to determine their fate.

    A year from now, I expect Vasil, Hamel and Tidwell to be banging on the door, and I see Yamamoto joining Senga and Q at the top of the rotation, so I'd look for #4 or 5 types as FAs rather than more expensive guys who will command long-term deals.

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