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8/2/23

Reese Kaplan -- The Sellers Get a Positive Incomplete


I’m not in the same time zone as the rest of our readers living on the opposite side of the world, so while the natural inclination today would be to do a summary and analysis of the Mets pre-August 1st trades made by GM Billy Eppler, I am writing this piece on what would be early evening on Monday on the east coast of the USA.  Consequently the last action I’ve seen was the salary-paid trade of outfielder Mark Canha to the Milwaukee Brewers for pitching prospect Justin Jarvis. 

So let’s recap...

  • Eduardo Escobar gone.  Not much in return but the deal opened up the 3rd base position for Brett Baty to play regularly, so it would be addition by subtraction.
  • Then there was the David Robertson deal to the Marlins.  This one hurt a bit as he was a fantastic pickup who was forced into becoming the closer in place of Edwin Diaz.  Money went in this deal as well, but in return the Mets got some decent offensive prospects to help fortify the farm system.
  • Next came the huge move of sending Hall of Fame caliber pitcher Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers to replace (ironically) former Met Jacob deGrom.  In this deal the Mets got a single player, Luisangel Acuna, who was regarded as the Rangers’ top offensive prospect.  This move cost a fortune as it meant paying down Scherzer’s contract plus half of what he’d be earning in 2024.  Still, the player obtained in return has the good baseball genes of his brother on the Braves who claims Luisangel is actually a better ballplayer than he is.
  • That brings us to the Mark Canha deal.  Losing him isn’t on par with losing a Starling Marte caliber of player as Canha is a mostly platoon player who can field his position and draw a lot of walks.  Unfortunately he doesn’t hit for a high average and his 1.5 years as a Met were more interesting for his restaurant opinions than for his on-field performance.  The pitcher obtained struck on 91 in 70+ innings, so the potential is there for someone who could be a major leaguer someday even after his poor initial appearance at the AAA level.

Then came the hectic August 1st express lane to prospect acquisition:

  • Tommy Pham to Arizona for youngster Jeremy Rodriguez.  This high dollar international signee shortstop is regarded as a wildcard asset who is probably a good roll of the dice considering Pham was going to be gone at the end of September for nothing.
  • Justin Verlander to Houston for outfielders Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.  When you consider the Mets have no one better than limping Tim Locastro in the minors to help cover the outfield grasses, it's not a bad return.  Both players are highly regarded but in Scherzer-methodology Steve Cohen paid down salary significantly to entice this return. 
  • Dominic Leone to Billy Eppler's former employer for infielder Jeremiah Jackson, a power hitter who swings and misses quite a bit, but anything you get with potential for a fringe player counts as a positive.

So in Billy Eppler’s case, I’m willing to give him something of a pass thus far.  It makes sense to try to jerry-rig the roster given how what was planned for 2023 didn’t work due to injuries and performance issues.  As Steve Cohen expressed in his public press conference, the money has already been budgeted and spent, so it there’s any way to obtain pieces to build for the future then you could take that statement to mean a roster renovation was going to be happening.

The real media focus, however, will continue to be the Justin Verlander soap opera.  By initial feedback he was pleased to be a Met (as was his bride, the former Kate Upton).  However, after the David Robertson deal was made you could see the wheels start turning.  Then when Scherzer went off to find yellow roses in Texas it became clearer that the no-trade clause in Verlander’s contract would be open to being waived.

In Verlander’s case, it’s a little more complicated.  Although he’s been pitching like a three-time Cy Young Award winner lately, the fact is that the acquiring team needs to pay him for the remainder of this year, next year and can be forced to retain him for 2025 if he completes 140 innings in 2024.  Consequently the Mets had to pay down a HUGE chunk in order to make the deal executed with the Astros.  

Then let's look at what hasn't been done:

  • Ronny Mauricio remains in Syracuse because...ummmm...any clue as to why?
  • Omar Narvaez, the projected starting catcher for 2023, is still a member of the team.  I can't believe no one in baseball couldn't want an above average option to don the tools of ignorance unless it was his salary obligation for the remainder of this season and 2024 was the immovable obtacle.
  • Daniel Vogelbach is still on the roster.  Sparing the obvious heft jokes about not fitting through the exit door, what opportunities are we going to get to see what Mark Vientos and others can do if Vogelbach continues to steal at-bats from players who should be seen to help evaluate the future?

Keep your eyes on the press for Mets news...what’s begun is not likely yet over. 

18 comments:

  1. The 3 Mets’ prospects had a growing day, the type you want to get out of the way in 2023. Alverez homered had another hit and two RBIs, but also his 10th error, Brett Baty made a very costly error went hitless and drove in a run with a walk.

    Mark Vientos went 0-4, but had a sacrifice fly. These three will get better, and with Ronnie Mauricio, he needs to get called up to the Mets in order to try to burn through his adjustment period, Largely in 2023.

    I don’t blame Steve Cohen, and this all started with Edwin Diaz. There is, if Edwin did not get hurt, no way this team does not secure a wildcard in 2023. The goal was always not so much to win the division, but to make the playoffs and very possibly get into the World Series.

    The team had gotten to the point, however, because of Edwin, but also because of other injuries and subpar performances, where the playoffs were in significant doubt, much more likely to not be made than to be made. All of these dudes would’ve been older next year. Hence, I agree with blowing this team up the way they have.

    the minor-league system is now stocked. When it comes to trades going forward, there are some pieces they could trade in order to acquire talent so I am not writing off 2024 or 2025 at this point. But there is a lot of talent now and by 2025, I think this team is gonna be really good and young.

    How much further will they blow the team up? Will they trade Alonso or McNeil or Quintana? Personally, I think that Cohen auto move the fences in to allow Alonso to thrive in Citifield, if not, trade him as long as you can get proper value for him, no fire cells allowed with Pete. It’s going to be a very interesting journey but in someways more fun than watching old prima donna’s cobbled together to try to win a championship.

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  2. It is obvious that Mauricio's offensive game is ready.

    This makes it obvious what isn't ready.

    I have said repeatedly for the Mets to play him in the Syracuse left field for the rest of the season so he can be fully trained there for the start of 2024

    It's obvious that the Mets didn't foresee regular reps for him this season in left if he hoped the shuttle.

    Good

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  3. I believe the highlight of this draft was getting the two outfielders for the service of Justin Verlander

    IMO...

    Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford will both be stars in this game. I had both of these two ranked in the top seven outfielders coming out of that draft.

    Gilbert is getting all the press, but I think Clifford will the big star. I don't project him as a power hitter (don't fall in love with stats this season in the band box he's been playing in).

    I see more of a McNeil with 20-25 home runs, top 5 in hits, and impecable centerfield defense.

    These two change everything for the future of the Mets outfield.

    In fact, with Nimmo, McNeil and Mauricio being around 2024 is going to have a crowd problem (remember... Acùna will be on second).

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  4. Mets currently 3.5 games away from Lottery pick

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  5. speaking of lottery picks and next year's draft, won't the new rule that they used to punish the Mets in the 2023 draft, by which this year's 1st round pick was pushed back 10 slots from 22nd to 32nd apply also to next year's draft? they sent out so much of the salary to the receiving teams to cover salary that I assume that'll be the case?

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  6. Yes and I'm waiting for our old writer Christopher Soto to do the math and tell us if the team is under the penalty line

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  7. Have you watched the games? This team wasn’t very good. An elite reliever pitching the ninth inning wouldn’t have made much of a difference. The team couldn’t hit. How many game 3 or fewer runs? Maybe a LFer or DH who could hit 20 homers and bat fifth would have made a difference,

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    1. I disagree. Having Diaz would've been a HUGE plus. It's not that he'd be replacing Robby; he'd be solidifying the 8th inning with him.Ottavino, Raley and Smith in the 6th/7th would be vast improvements over the rotating AAAA crew.

      Conservatively, it would make us 5 Ws better right now, in strong WC contention.

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  8. I understand that the top ten picks are frozen without a penalty. Unless I am wrong, Mets won’t lose their spot. The Mets currently pick 10th. I didn’t like the Verlander trade. I don’t think those two prospects are a good enough return, but if Verlander only wanted to go there, then…. There was a second team involved at the end (the Orioles), according to The Athletic Will Samson, and the Astros had the better package. How could the other package be less?

    I don’t love Acuna’s profile either, no matter what his brother says, but I’m glad Scherzer is gone.

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  9. I would have kept Verlander and not need to replace him next year.

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  10. I think they did well, and I give Cohen a ton of credit both for going for it this season, and for recognizing the current reality and making the (big $) commitment to pivoting younger and building for the future. I’m not sure if Acuña would be getting the same rave reviews if he had a different last name, but clearly people believe he’s a big leaguer. I’ll trust Mack on the two Houston OF’s. And I’m excited about the two teenagers they got for Robertson, who both seem to have an advanced eye (a great sign for a youngster), and whom, I assume, Mets scouts got a good look at in the FCL where they play each other constantly. Finally, I’m intrigued by the $1.25 mil DSL kid they got for Pham. Good strategy going for a high-risk/reward return there rather than a low-ceiling guy closer to the bigs. They also bagged a pitcher who handled AA pretty well and could be a factor somewhere. Overall, this was the decisive trade deadline I hoped for but worried we wouldn’t see. It may be weird, but I’d personally rather root for an exciting young team and watch it come together and improve over a few years - augmented by a couple of key additions than continually throwing huge money at older players. ‘84-86 was the best time of my Mets fan-dom.

    As to Mauricio, my guess is that they’d rather see him struggle defensively out of the limelight while he (hopefully) adjusts to the OF. Also, they may want to save his rookie eligibility for next season’s ROY race, which is worth a significant extra draft pick. As to the rest of this season, looking forward to watching the kids and quietly rooting for them to fall into the bottom 6 and get to keep their spot in the draft.

    Finally (sorry for the length here) thanks for all you’ve done here over the years, Mack. It’s appreciated.

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    Replies
    1. Your welcome anon

      (Consider leaving.your first name at the end of each your anonymous commemts so I can separate you from the other anonites)

      I spend.most m of my time inclined now but I intend.on continuing to comment on the writer's posts.

      Delete
  11. What an interesting and nice trade deadline for these NY Mets.

    Kudos out to GM Billy Eppler and ownership as well. They identified things as they are right now and made vast improvements especially for their MiLB, which desperately needed upgrading.

    This is the very beginning of a better NY Mets team and MiLB system. Bravo!

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  12. To me, this was a most unusual, yet somewhat interesting season for this NY Mets franchise at least now after the Trade Dealine has ended.

    What I mean is that the 2023 ST ended with hope, even with Edwin Diaz in traction after being jumped by a bunch of Puerto Ricans. The recipe for success was still in-place here though. Then "all things unexpected happened." The Mets' injury bug resurfaced (SOB), arms ached from players we needed to be healthy starting games, key batters slumped, and Kate Upton left town just now. THis being perhaps the absolute worst part of this whole season of disappointment.

    Couldn't just Justin have left? Why too Kate! It's not fair I tell you! We need to protest this!

    But truthfully, this NY Mets organization pulled it all together beautifully at the Trade Deadline. There was logic and common sense galore here. They worked overtime, and got things done superbly. So okay then. GM Billy Eppler can stay. He and Mets' owner Mr. Steven Cohen (and all their subordinate staff) have turned it all around and into recovery phase.

    The NY Mets are now off life support and on their way now to a very nice future.

    So it now all comes down to the 1-3 starters obtained for 2024. They will need to dig deeply into researching all the other teams AAA starters of merit and sincere worth. Promising starters close to starting in MLB. And then Mets willing to be offering players in trade here now, that are deemed worthy and interesting by other MLB teams.

    Really, that's what this all will now come down to now.

    Sidebar:

    Can you Mets fans believe Paul Sewald's rise to MLB notoriety as of late? It's tremendous and I am happy for him.

    If the Mets had left their 2022 rotation intact, what would their record be right now, do you think? This would include All Star RSP Taijuan Walker and RSP Chris Bassitt.

    Carlos Carrasco is a FA after this season. I wish him the very best.

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  13. Right now, if you're Mets GM, would you trade Senga and Q for Walker and Bassitt? I wouldn't. In fact, if Q hadn't missed the entire 1st half, I doubt that you'd be missing those 2.

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  14. Nice discussion. Now lose a lot and let’s get great draft picks.

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