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8/28/23

Tom Brennan -The Case for JT Schwartz


JT Schwartz, back in his UCLA days.


I’m like Mack (or at least I was) on JT Schwartz:

“Lacks power…next?”

Except, I looked closer and liked what I saw.

First of all, he is both a 1B AND OF, so his being a fine-fielding first baseman on a team with Pete is not an issue, as he is also is an errorless outfielder.

JT’s gross #s are low this year…in large part due to injury causing him to miss 51% of Binghamton’s games. But he is hitting .298 with a .385 OBP on a team where, through July, he was surrounded with anemic hitters.

Another But…he is healthy now, and has posted an eye-catching .347/.449/.520 slash for August.

He also, with 2 outs this year and RISP, when it COUNTS, is hitting .356 this year.

If he played all of Binghamton’s games, at his current RBI rate, he’d have 85 RBIs. On a team that until lately has been lousy at getting guys on base.

Last 2 seasons?  

605 at bats, 40 doubles, 6 triples, 9 HRs, and 91 RBIs. 

He also played last year for Brooklyn, which was poor at getting runners on base to knock in.

He actually adjusted his approach in difficult Brooklyn last year and while hitting an admirable .292 there, launched just one of his 6 HRs there in 2022. Smart adjustment. Long fly outs into stiff incoming winds are simply outs.

Strikeouts? 

A plague for so many, but just 41 in 234 plate appearances this year, a quality rate. 

Speed? 

8 of 11 steals and 6 triples over the course of his career, in 789 PAs, tells me his speed is at least near-average.

Power potential? 

Well, he is 6’4”, a size that would permit power to be added, and I highly suspect you will see the 23 year old lefty hitter’s HR rate jump in 2024. I can imagine him saying, “I’ve proven I can hit for average, like McNeil and TJ Rivera did early in their minors careers - now watch me hit 20 HRs in 2024.”

I know Mack likely will disagree, but the Mets may decide to let Pete roll into 2024 without extension, if for no other reason than to have more time to see if flying-under-radar JT Schwartz can turn into a John Olerud.

I realize this is all speculation, since JTS is not now in the Mets Top 30. 

Usually that tells you something.

Except for one thing…IMO, he should be in the top 15. 

Send him to the Arizona Fall League this year, and let him boost his 2023 at bats as a precursor to 2024. Then, off to the gym to add muscle and power, like McNeil and Rivera successfully did.

My guess is, if the Mets don’t keep him, he could be a dandy 1B for the Yankees with that short porch.

METS WIN

David Peterson is pitching more, of late, as we would have expected him to all season. That is, with quality.  Can he keep it up?

SYNDERGAARD RELEASED:

6.50 ERA this year. Turns 31 this week. Sign him for Mets pen?

Or leave him in the discard bin?




20 comments:

  1. Tom

    As you know I followed JT throughout his college days.

    I liked the pick and I liked his hint at pop in school

    Since then he is Kirk N ver2
    0 to me

    The Mets would probably make Vientos their first baseman if Pete left

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  2. We don't spend enough time on what I am about to say

    AA and.AAA have completely different strike zones

    Much smaller and tighter

    Hitter friendly

    NEVER sign off on stats here

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  3. Mack, good points. Felt the same. Now I want to see how JT is finishing 2023, and hopefully with an AFL stint to up his games. His 60 missed games this year render him incomplete.

    He feels like Jayce Boyd II. Jayce was on his way, but that thoracic surgery stunted his trajectory.

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    Replies
    1. Forgot about Jayce

      Nicest guy on earth

      Sweet swing

      After injury couldn't throw

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  4. Tom,
    If the Mets scouts think Syndergaard has something left, then yes give him a shot.
    We have seen numerous Mets pitchers go to other teams and do well,
    Let's reverse that scenario and get someone back who does well for us.
    It's worth a try.

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  5. Tom,
    Just read some posts from yesterday regarding Syndergaard, looks like I am in the minority on that question.

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  6. Quiet day. Only Mets org game is the Mets/Tx game tonight.

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    Replies
    1. For some reason, our entire farm is shut down EVERY Monday.

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  7. Smaller zones = comeuppance for promoted pitchers.

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  8. At first I've been (right or wrong) lumping him in as a Jeremy Vasquez type guy. I'm trying to figure out if he is hitting his way to being a Dom Smith type bat now but presumably without Dom glove/hands?

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  9. Ernest, Dom Smith the last 3 years has been horrible offensively, and I’d bet JT can well outdo that stretch by 2025.

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  10. Shame about Jayce's injury. He seemed a lot as a hitter like Daniel Murphy before he got that stupid career killer of an injury.

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  11. 50 games in the field for JT this year, just one error. Not shabby at all there.

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  12. I have been a fan of JT Schwartz since I saw him before this season in BP. Sweetest swing on the team. Great fielder. Olerud without the helmet. I would bet that he continues to hit in the next level like he is right now in AA.

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  13. Thor joins "Shredded Lettuce" for a game of chess poolside. Nobody won.

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  14. I think Polo Bear and Lindorific could both be gone over this next off season.

    Why?

    Starting Pitching. It needs a facelift. Badly.

    Mets could have Senga and a new Japanese starter in-place come ST'24. Mets could have maybe 2 kid starters (from within their MiLB ranks) ready for ST'24 as well. That would make four starters of worth and notice. I am not 100% sold on Jose Quintana yet myself for automatic ST'24. Nor Peterson, Megill, or Carrasco really. Jose Quintana's 1-5 won/loss this season does not jump out to me. Plus, he's 35 years old come ST'24.

    I do see Polo Bear luring in a really good younger starter from another team for the five-man. If it goes out to a six-man (to preserve arms over the course of an entire season) then I could see Lindorific going via a trade possibly as well for a second really good younger starter from another team.

    Both first base and shortstop have young player alternatives developing now. Luisangel acuna is one maybe for short and TJ Schwartz for first. The Mets need to get more hits and runners on base each game. And not just solo homruns.

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  15. More and more fans are talking about JT Schwartz. And why not,look at what he’s done lately. For those of you still on the Vientos wagon,why?

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  16. No Alonso,no Lindor! Wow this team would have trouble scoring runs.

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  17. Zero power without Lindor and Pete. Pete will extend.

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