We see guys put up big numbers in AA and AAA, and we get SO EXCITED.
WHOO HOO!!
Not so fast. Should we hoot and holler? Or are we watching a mirage?
When you really think about it, Lucy, there are 3 levels of pitchers in AAA:
1) Really good arms that still need more innings to be MLB-ready.
2) AAAA arms that would get pounded more often than not at the big league level.
3) Total retreads (think Dylan Bundy circa spring pre-retirement 2023).
So, your hot prospect hitter, facing a bunch of such softies, gets called up. Yay!
And finds out quickly that:
Almost every pitcher they now face in the Huge Leagues is far better than who they faced in Lilliputian AAA.
The Huge pitchers throw harder, have better stuff, better command, better control.
Fewer mistakes, too.
Backed by better fielders as well, robbing what used to be AAA hits.
It has me thinking that the normal rule of thumb is to:
1) Cut a hitter’s AAA average by 100 points to get to their MLB equivalent. Hitting .280 in AAA? Well, that just might turn into .180 in the bigs. .330? That’s .230. Maybe,
2) Power output might drop by half or more, too.
Maybe that explains Baty and Vientos’ low Mets #’s.
The vast chasm.
For instance, ex-Met Eric Campbell hit .360/.470/.570 over parts of 2 AAA seasons. Wow!
But hits .185 with the big league laddies after his rookie big league season. Jarred Kelenic found the same thing. Danny Muno too (ha, ha).
Ex-Met Kenny Singleton hit .388 in the first half of 1970 in AAA, then hit 125 points lower (.263) with the Mets in the second half, and he didn’t have to face the likes of Seaver, Koosman, and Ryan.
Which means to me that compared to AAA, the majors are not AAAA.
They are AAAAA or AAAAAA. Probably AAAAAA.
A huge, vast chasm.
Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil in 2019 were freakish exceptions.
They made the jump look easy.
If Francisco Alvarez was in AAA all of this year, methinks his numbers would resemble Barry Bonds’.
At least 100 points higher. 45 or 50 HRs already.
So…temper your expectations the next time the “next big thing” seems to be knocking on the door.
It means little until the hitter can do it in Queens. The chasm is huge.
So, when a Ronny Mauricio has a .280 OBP in AAA over a two month period, is that .180 OBP in Queens? Quite possibly.
Is that why he hasn’t been called up? Quite possibly.
That last portion of the climb - to the bigs - is steep and treacherous.
And that leaves fans disappointed.
They like instant results. Try instant Sanka.
A NOTE ON HOUSTON-ACQUIRED PROSPECTS:
Speaking of possible mirages, we got Houston’s #1 and #2 prospects in the Verlander deal. Pop the corks!
But, before you do, Houston’s prospects on the team level were ranked 30th out of 30.
So, the #1 and #2 the Mets got may have been #8 and #10 on the team with the best prospects. Who knows…just a thought.
See the link to the article below.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082392-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2023-mlb-draft
PLUNGING, PLUNGING…
Mets are 39-58 over the last 97 games, which is roughly .400 ball over 60% of a season.
Most of that .400 ball occurred with Messrs. Verlander, Scherzer, Robertson, Pham, and Canha playing collectively strong baseball, and propping up the sputtering Mutts.
Seems to me that playing even .300 ball the rest of the way will be a challenge, considering the above. Whaddya think?
RONALD HERNANDEZ MAKES YOU SMILE:
Some prospects come to the Mets system and struggle.
Not Ronald Hernandez. The 19 year old switch hitting catcher in the FCL has a .543 OBP in his first 9 games in Metdom. Which is also a .457 off base %.
I’m smiling, how about you? Anyone who isn’t is way off base.
JEFFRY!
DSL outfielder Jeffry Rosa has something in common with the Bambino. The Babe has 714 HRs.
18 year old Jeffrey Rosa in 39 games has 12 doubles, 14 HRs, and a .714 slug %. Wow.
Heck, yeah!
TWO NINER, TWO NINER…
The Mets have several weeks left I. The season, and have already used 27 pitchers plus 2 position players pitching in blow outs. The Mets single-handedly lower the nation’s unemployment rate.
RBI FRIGGIN’ MACHINE
17 year old DSL catcher Julio Zayas has a superb 42 RBIs in 166 at bats. He plays the same position as Tomas Nido, who has one major league RBI this year. If I posted this on Facebook, some dummy would be quick to point out they are doing it in two different leagues. Duh!
Francisco Alvarez at age 17 in the DSL had 26 RBIs in 157 at bats; Zayas 42 in 166…HMMM….
To my point: Mets score 7 In a 7-2 win, but the 2 rookies Alvarez and Vientos contribute 0 for 8 and 4 Ks. Big league hitting is hard. Is it bad coaching, too?
ReplyDeleteTom there seems to be soooo much to fix with this team it's mind-boggling but having SC's $$$$ will help and a first rate GM as well. Tom my guess on not bring up RonnieMo has to do with the team getting that extra year of control but what's that date? Also please tell me Porky will NOT be on this team next year.
ReplyDeleteI'm still one to give Alvarez Baty and Vientos a push this season
ReplyDeleteAs for Mauricio he better find a position soon. Acùna and the Houston youngins are on the way
Porky is heating up for the stretch run. Just needed 6 months of spring training.
ReplyDeleteOne more thing the Post had an article on Senga and Alvarez's rookie seasons and mentioned not over working them to which of course I agree BUT there no reason not to DH Alvy when he's not starting behind the plate unless they need to see more of the round one why????? As far your post on the difficult transistion from the minors to the majors why don't the Braves seem to have that problem? I assume it has to do with much better talent but hopefully we can now start to catch up in that department.
ReplyDeleteGary, here’s the rules: Service Time
ReplyDeletePlayers receive Major League service time for each day spent on the 26-man roster or the Major League injured list. Important to players and clubs alike, service time is used to determine when players are eligible for arbitration as well as free agency.
Each Major League regular season consists of 187 days (typically 183 days prior to 2018), and each day spent on the active roster or injured list earns a player one day of service time. (Any player who violates MLB's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program doesn't receive Major League Service during his suspension, unless his suspension is reduced by 20 or more games under the mitigation provision of the program.)
A player is deemed to have reached "one year" of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year. Upon reaching six years of Major League service, a player becomes eligible for free agency at the end of that season (unless he has already signed a contract extension that covers one or more of his free-agent seasons).
All players with at least three (but less than six) years of Major League service time become eligible for salary arbitration, through which they can earn substantial raises relative to the Major League minimum salary. Additionally, Major League Baseball each year identifies the group of players that ended the prior season with between two and three years of Major League service and at least 86 days of Major League service in that season and designates the top 22 percent -- in terms of service time -- as arbitration eligible. Those in the top 22 percent -- "Super Two" players -- are also eligible for salary arbitration despite having less than three years of Major League service. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement established a $50 million bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.
Service time also becomes a factor for players who are considerably further along in their careers. Players with at least 10 years of Major League service who have spent the past five consecutive seasons with the same team earn "10-and-5" rights. Under these circumstances, a player can veto any trade scenario that is proposed. In essence, 10-and-5 rights function as a full no-trade clause.
Mack, 100% agree on Alvarez. He will have siestas followed by explosions this year, stardom in 2024.
ReplyDeleteVientos has to just start hitting. Or he’ll get traded and be a slugger somewhere else.
Mauricio took a nap in June, July, early August. Nappy time is over. I agree, talent is nipping at his heels.
ReplyDeleteGary, the Braves have an aura of success, guys called up expect to do well.
ReplyDeleteBaty would probably be hitting .300 for Atlanta.
What, no thoughts on XBH Machine Rosa or RBI Machine Zayas? Congratulations are in order.
ReplyDeleteI love them both AT THAT LEVEL
DeleteI have learned over the years to not fall in love with bat numbers in that league
Majority of those pitchers at that level should be working the fields instead
Curious if these guys are legitimate prospects
ReplyDeleteRay, it seems most s/b viewed as suspects (mirage prospects) until they arrive and thrive in Queens.
ReplyDeleteI'm having a hard time projected the 2024 Mets
ReplyDeleteThe 2023 team looked like a fantasy dream especially after signing those two former Cy Young starters.
Those two, a new Japanese sensation, the best 8th-CL combo in baseball, potential all stars at 1B 2B SS CF RF, and budding stars at 3B C. DH made the season look like a lock.
Even the injuries past the Diaz dance were minimal.
So yes the core will be a year older but I would vote to keep it in check adding where needed
The majority of guppies that could help next season won't be ready until after the all-star break. Then the depth in the system will take over and the team should be fine for the remainder of the decade
So
For me in 2023 go get TWO top starters to replace Max and Verlander
Those two plus Senga and Q give them a decent SP1-4
Agreed, Mack. That’s why what Ronald Hernandez is doing in FCL so far is impressive. A MUCH tougher League than DSL.
ReplyDeleteBy comparison, there are 3 non-Mets in DSL hitting over .400 still, with an average of 1 K every 3 games. THOSE guys are most likely bona fide long term prospects. A guy like Rosa - tons of power - but higher K rate is a warning sign. But, compared to last year’s DSL, seems this Mets group of 9 might show some FCL success in 2024, in a real league.
He's playing a lot 1B too
DeleteMack, what, no Carrasco for 2024? I hope at least one of their top 2023 minors starters explodes up in their last handful of 2023 starts and is ready in early 2024.
ReplyDeleteI said this yesterday
DeleteI have grown Luke warm on Vasil Hamel Stuart. No research. Just that I've seen so many minor league dominate Cory Oswalt type starters over the year
Still big on Tidwell though
Gervase was outstanding the other day. He might be a real bullpen factor in 2024. Gotta tighten the control, but 76 Ks in 47 IP in High A is promising. They are hitting an incredible .146 vs. him. Which is just 24 hits in 47 IP.
ReplyDeleteYes Gervase looks like a possible future pen piece but he has two more levels to dominate before I get with him
DeleteMack, very true. We don’t want guys who can starting the majors but are fringe #5’s. That will never beat Atlanta.
ReplyDeleteMack, any word on Brandon Sproat? Maybe theyvedecides to just work on his technique and have him pitch in fall training camp. Then debut in 2024 in Brooklyn.
ReplyDeleteI have heard nothing on him
DeleteOne other thing
Be kind to Vogelbach. He's a grown man who has a tremendous more baseball talent than.any of us
True there, Mack. I am very testy these days.
ReplyDeleteGervase to Binghamton
ReplyDeleteGervase has earned it
ReplyDeleteMets face a guy fittingly named Falter tonight…he is 0-7…who will falter? The Mets or Falter?
ReplyDeleteGot to disagree with Tom. Every team has 4-5 pitchers on a shuttle between AAA and majors. What concerns me is when our new guys fail to hit against pitchers they dominated in the minors.
ReplyDelete