Paul Articulates - Pen Central

I found myself envying the Cincinnati Reds this weekend as I watched their bullpen hold the Mets down.  They are not just about Alexis Diaz who has had a fabulous year, but they sent some very capable arms out and the Mets couldn’t touch any of them until Sunday when Carson Spiers had a bad day.

The Mets, as we all know, had a terrible year in the pen.  Maybe it was the wrong guys or maybe they were overworked early when the starters couldn’t finish more than 5 innings game after game, but there was no relief in sight every time Buck walked to the mound.

I am wary of the “grass is greener” syndrome, so I took a look at the performance numbers for the Reds’ bullpen.  The Reds’ pen in total has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. They have nine relievers with an ERA less than 5.00 (min 20 innings pitched).  Of those nine relievers, seven of them pitched against the Mets and in 9 2/3 innings gave up zero runs.  The guy the Mets finally got to Sunday was pitching for his first time in the majors, so he has a ways to go. The Reds’ pen in total has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.  

The Mets have seven relievers with less than a 5.00 ERA.  The Mets pen has a 4.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  That half run of ERA is making the difference between a team in contention for the playoffs and one that folded the tent two months ago.  Hitting is fairly similar with the Reds having a .010 advantage in OPS over the Mets – so the point is that relief pitching gives them an edge.

Three of the nine key relievers for Cincinnati have only been with the Reds.  The others have been with an average of about three teams.  So like any other MLB team they come from varied backgrounds.  There are two things that stand out – they can shut down another team in the late innings; and they don’t cost the team a mint.  The salaries for those nine players range from $1.75M (Buck Farmer) to $700k (Sam Moll).  More than half are on the lower side of that range below $1M/year.  This is proof that you don’t need to overpay to have an effective pen.  You need to discern who the effective ones are in trade talks and you need to have strong player development to make them better than they were before they got to their new destination.  [note: all of them are on one year deals that expire at the end of 2023]

The Mets aspire to be a top player development organization and are investing heavily in personnel and technology to get there.  They have a new president of baseball operations to help guide that ship.  I applaud Steve Cohen for making these improvements that will sustain the excellence once the team gets there.  But clearly they are not there yet.

Next year the Mets want to be competitive.  To compete, they must be able to shut down teams in the late innings, which is something that is seen very rarely in 2023.  The young upcoming Mets are starting to build confidence, but will not make the team an offensive juggernaut next year, so it comes down to pitching and defense.  The build-up of the 2024 NY Mets bullpen will be central to the outcome.  Make some good deals, David Stearns!