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9/18/23

Paul Articulates - Pen Central


I found myself envying the Cincinnati Reds this weekend as I watched their bullpen hold the Mets down.  They are not just about Alexis Diaz who has had a fabulous year, but they sent some very capable arms out and the Mets couldn’t touch any of them until Sunday when Carson Spiers had a bad day.

The Mets, as we all know, had a terrible year in the pen.  Maybe it was the wrong guys or maybe they were overworked early when the starters couldn’t finish more than 5 innings game after game, but there was no relief in sight every time Buck walked to the mound.

I am wary of the “grass is greener” syndrome, so I took a look at the performance numbers for the Reds’ bullpen.  The Reds’ pen in total has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. They have nine relievers with an ERA less than 5.00 (min 20 innings pitched).  Of those nine relievers, seven of them pitched against the Mets and in 9 2/3 innings gave up zero runs.  The guy the Mets finally got to Sunday was pitching for his first time in the majors, so he has a ways to go. The Reds’ pen in total has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.  

The Mets have seven relievers with less than a 5.00 ERA.  The Mets pen has a 4.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  That half run of ERA is making the difference between a team in contention for the playoffs and one that folded the tent two months ago.  Hitting is fairly similar with the Reds having a .010 advantage in OPS over the Mets – so the point is that relief pitching gives them an edge.

Three of the nine key relievers for Cincinnati have only been with the Reds.  The others have been with an average of about three teams.  So like any other MLB team they come from varied backgrounds.  There are two things that stand out – they can shut down another team in the late innings; and they don’t cost the team a mint.  The salaries for those nine players range from $1.75M (Buck Farmer) to $700k (Sam Moll).  More than half are on the lower side of that range below $1M/year.  This is proof that you don’t need to overpay to have an effective pen.  You need to discern who the effective ones are in trade talks and you need to have strong player development to make them better than they were before they got to their new destination.  [note: all of them are on one year deals that expire at the end of 2023]

The Mets aspire to be a top player development organization and are investing heavily in personnel and technology to get there.  They have a new president of baseball operations to help guide that ship.  I applaud Steve Cohen for making these improvements that will sustain the excellence once the team gets there.  But clearly they are not there yet.

Next year the Mets want to be competitive.  To compete, they must be able to shut down teams in the late innings, which is something that is seen very rarely in 2023.  The young upcoming Mets are starting to build confidence, but will not make the team an offensive juggernaut next year, so it comes down to pitching and defense.  The build-up of the 2024 NY Mets bullpen will be central to the outcome.  Make some good deals, David Stearns!


11 comments:

  1. Edwin return will be an instant upgrade, but the goal HAS to be a pen that is no worse than 10th in baseball in 2024. How to do that? Put together a top 5 pen this off season.

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  2. Agree totally a better BP and we're fighting for a playoff spot. The problem with that this year is that would mean we don't have the prospects we added at the deadline so if you could pick fighting for the playoffs with a flawed older team or what actually hppened this year what do you pick?

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  3. I believe the Mets will add two new starters to the 2024 rotation

    This will leave Megill and Peterson to become middle relievers

    I also hope Kay can find the control needed to add an inning

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  4. At first, I thought this was going to be an article about that wrecked railroad!

    Somewhat apropos, as the bullpen wrecked the Mets season. Diaz coming back for sure will help. Re-signing David Robertson would be a step in the right direction. Ottovino pushed back to seventh inning (or earlier) would help. Raley stays as the primary lefty.

    Not a clue as to who the other 4/5 guys should be. From the farm, Gervase and Lavender seem promising. Not sure about anyone else currently in the org., however. I think they should plan on at least three imports via FA/Trade.

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  5. Dan, I did an article yesterday running thru some in-minors 2024 pen options. Check it out.

    I think Gervase and Lavender could really help in 2024. I think they are being held back in 2023 largely to keep them off the 40 man roster for now.

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  6. Mack, Kay this month in minors? 3.2 IP, 0 runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, NINE Ks!

    Maybe he found his niche. Paul Sewald sucked, until he flipped a switch and became excellent. Maybe Kay will, too.

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  7. Remember when Mets signed Kay. He was viewed as someone with a bulldog mentality. Be great if he can find success.

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  8. Good piece. If the Mets are ever going to be a consistent winner an ability to build good bullpens will be almost as important as the farm system. There's no excuse for their chronic inability to convert some of the live arms in the system into effective relievers

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  9. It was the hitting! Get RBI guy who can hit 20+ HR to bat fifth. Get at least one more hitter for 3B,corner OF or DH. Scoring 3 or less runs might after night is a ticket to another 75 win season.

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  10. Woodrow, pen is 23rd in ERA. To make playoffs, top 10 in pen ERA is a huge need.

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  11. But, to your point, 36 and 111 for Braves 5th in order, just 16 and 65 for Mets.

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