I SEE THOSE 5 FINE DUDES WHO BELONG IN THE TOP 30. DO YOU?
A remarkable thing happened Thursday night.
Joander Suarez threw five shutout innings and struck out nine, allowing 3 hits, which in point of fact was 2 more hits allowed than his last 3 starts combined.
He was followed by Brendan Hardy, who fanned four in two innings, bring the total to 13 Ks in the first 7 innings.
Then he was followed by Paul Gervase, who fanned six in his two innings.
Add them up and that’s 19 strikeouts!
Which is pretty sensational.
I seem to recall that an obscure hurler named Tom Seaver fanned 19 once upon a time in a 9 inning game, too.
What does the current trio of pitchers have in common?
None of those three are in the Mets' top 30, that's what.
Joander Suarez, in his last four starts, has allowed four hits, no runs, and fanned 25, while walking 6. He was shaky before that, but the money he put into his massage chair ran out and he is not shaking at all of late.
Suarez did allow 4 runs in 4 innings in his 5th most recent start, but in the one before that, he threw 6 innings of 3 hit, no run, 11 K ball. So he has been other-worldly in 5 of his last 6 starts, in those 5 starts having gone 30 innings, allowing just 7 hits, and fanning 36 without a run.
He has fanned 137 in 108 innings this season.
Brendan Hardy has a 1.94 ERA and has fanned 50 and 31 earnings.
Paul Gervase has a 2.05 ERA and has fanned a stunning 96 in 57 innings.
All, obviously, are now in AA, so they are performing at a high level.
Those are not top 30 guys? Why?
Who are other guys on their Binghamton team who aren't in the top 30, but should be?
JT Schwartz and Rhylan Thomas.
Both were both hitting over 300 this year thru Thursday.
JT is a slick fielder who is hitting .304 with 49 RBIs in just 253 at bats. At that rate, he'd have 100 RBIs in just 510 at bats.
He is 47 for his last 135 since getting over injuries, which is .348. He gets on base a lot, with 18 walks, and just 27 Ks in that span. 22 XBH in 239 AA at bats this year, which is decent, and improving.
Rhylan Thomas?
He started out in 2023 in St Lucie, played a while for Brooklyn, and is now in the line up daily for Binghamton. Hit well in all 3 levels.
Fast riser.
For the year, he is .323/.401/.418. He has fanned just 28 times in 339 plate appearances, a remarkably low rate. His power has been low, so far, with 20 XBH, but that stat line reminds me of early minors Jeff McNeil. I think he adds pop in 2024.
Thomas came into 2023 with just 43 pro at bats, having been drafted in 2022 in the 11th round, so this is his first full year.
He is hitting .326 with a .392 OBP in his first 14 AA games, so even AA is not fazing him.
He has all of 2 pro outfield errors, so that is a clear plus.
Yet, none of the above 5 are in the top 30.
Who are in the top 30, who perhaps shouldn't be? I could probably come up with 5, but might I suggest two names?
Justin Jarvis (Canha trade) is ranked number 15 but is getting AAA-tattooed, having allowed 42 runs in 35 AAA innings after his promotion mid-season from AA, with a WHIP for those innings of 2.15. Not top 30 numbers.
And Coleman Crowe (Escobar deal) just got Tommy John surgery and missed almost all of 2023 and will miss all of 2024, but he is ranked number 29. Why in the top 30?
A little screwy, if you ask me. Both came in 2023 trades, so is their inclusion to show the trades weren't - I dunno - dumb?
You do what you want, but Suarez, Gervase, Schwartz, and Thomas are BIG PRODUCERS, and all are in my top 30.
All four have to be in my top 20.
And I can sneak Brendan Hardy into my top 30 somewhere, only minimizing him compared to the others due to his low innings in 2023. But he has vastly improved in 2023.
That's my missive for today. You readers? All in my Top 30.
ERIC FOUND THE LIGHT SWITCH:
Eric Orze was having a pretty rough relief year for Syracuse - mostly due to about 5 really bad outings - until August 31.
Starting that day, his last 7 relief innings totaled 1 hit, no runs, 14 Ks. Nice to surge down the stretch. And make his case for 2024.
157 career innings in his 3 seasons, 209 Ks. Not shabby.
And Hamel? 5 shutout innings, 8 Ks. The ship has been righted.
Jett? 2 more hits.
Of course, Pete Alonso with his 45th, and 112 RBIs. Extraordinary.
And David Peterson fanned 10 in 5.2 innings. Sweet.
I think Suarez has the best chance of bypassing AAA.and opening up in the Mets rotation next season
ReplyDeleteMay take both a remarkable winter ball and spring training showing
I'd still like to see more from Suarez, as far as what is making him so successful lately. What is he doing that is superior? I remember Adam Oller going on a tear in the minors two years ago, but failing for Oakland when called up.
ReplyDeleteMack, were do we stand on draft? We're winning too much.
Tied for 1.7 with Detroit - as basically 1.8 - with the Angels and Guardians breathing down their necks.
DeleteThere are a lot of teams trying for a lottery pick
DeleteMets are mucking up the soup
They need to consistently lose here
But
A prediction
Watch for a huge showing in the International signing period under Stearns
Imagine Pete's numbers if not for that early June HBP that lost him 10 days followed by a 4 week slump? He'd already be at 50+.
ReplyDeleteRemember, the Mets' 3 highest HR guys pre-Pete were Hundley and Beltran (41) and Piazza (40). Pete is remarkable.
I don't recall reading anything about Suarez before his recent performances. Any description of his stuff? Is he a hard thrower? What are his breaking pitches?
ReplyDeleteHey Eric
DeleteJoander has stopped trying to blow away hitters with the fastball that.led him to TJS in 2021
His fastball now is in the 93-93 range mixed with 4 other pitches
Tom, these guys are fine and well and we are happy for them and wish them well, but scouting the stat line is very dangerous. As Mack said, Adam Oller was the same thing. In fact, I recall trying to figure out where Madison Bumgarner came from because I hadn’t ever heard of him. The Giants rushed him through the minors after drafting him at 18 years old and the kid was in MLB at 19 years old. Yes, he had some success in A, A+ and AA, but obviously someone knew something. Had he been on the Mets, he would have been up two years later as we would “enjoy” having him as a top prospect along the way. It’s all about the tools.
ReplyDeleteGus
DeleteThere are tons of pitchers drafted and signed with excellent tools
The difference is how they use them and who oversees their development
This is an area I feel the Mets have been inferior
It’s loaded,the farm system is loaded even with the Baby Mets all graduated . Let’s hope those Baby Mets do a little better next season. The trade deadline additions,Parada and Williams, the the BMetsstarters and the hot end of the seasons for several others means that this will be a top ten system next year. 2025 it might all come tgether.
ReplyDeleteLou,unless 3-4 of these prospects become solid ML starters this team will continue to be a 70-75 win team. Top ten farm systems are nice but it’s playoff ML teams most fans want. Our BabyMets haven’t lit the league on fire yet. Let’s hope 3-4 of them will next season or in 2025.
ReplyDeleteI re-read the CB this morning. The Mets don't need to finish with the 6th worst record to pick Top 6. All teams (except Washington) that fail to make the playoffs are in the lottery for a Top 6 pick. Their chances are greater the lower they finish but, 18 teams have a shot. So, they could theoretically finish 18th and pick #1 or vice versa.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteCorrect if I am wrong, but isn't the problem the fact that the Mets will be dropped 10 slots down due to their"over spending" for salaries just as they were this year when they were dropped from pick 22 to 32. If they finish in the top 6, then I understand that pick is protected.
I may be wrong about this.
D J, I believe that is correct.
ReplyDeleteDJ - My underatanding is that yes, the top six are protected but, you must win the lottery to pick in the top six. So, if the Mets finish at 18, though their odds are lower, they would still be in the lottery and have the possibility of beimg protected. On the other hand, if they are 5, they could miss the top six by losing in the lottery and drop to 7 and then an additional 10.
ReplyDeleteGoing to throw in a prediction here for a guy who I’m sure will be off everyone’s top 30 lists this offseason. William Lugo had a terrific year last season at 20 yrs old,
ReplyDeleteIn A/A+, and hit (3?) very loud ML HR this spring in limited AB’s, but got injured and missed the first 5-6 weeks of the season, then struggled mightily for the entire first half. He seemed to get it together (get healthy) during the 2nd half, getting his number up some in what has to have been a disappointing season for him. The kid’s got all kinds of talent and power, and even at 6’3 225 was still playing some SS, so both strong and athletic. Predicting a big breakout season next year for him in A+/AA, and a return to all the lists mid-‘24. This is ThatAdamSmith, btw, and it’s been awhile since I posted here. Just not signed in. You guys are still great!