Reese Kaplan -- Finding the Managerial Needle in the Haystack

Earlier in the week we examined the philosophical type of person the Mets should consider to fill their vacancy for a General Manager.  Some folks are of the opinion that a GM becoming a part of the management hierarchy is not a real high priority given David Stearns' experience in that role.  Just as Sandy Alderson handled both the POBO and GM roles out of both necessity and Wilpon budget constraints, it is possible to go in that direction despite Steve Cohen's much greater financial resources to put into the team.

The next decision that must be made is the right type of manager to lead this ballclub.  Now before we speculate on who could or could not become the new Mets manager, let's look at a few basic facts.  Going out of their way to hire one of the most well respected managers in baseball when they obtained Buck Showalter indeed resulted in a 101 win season, a vast improvement on what had been a far less successful franchise record prior to his arrival.  Of course, having the right man at the top is not an iron clad guarantee of being  at or near the top of the division as Showalter and his team demonstrated just a year later.

Going back even further the Mets made the curious decision under the Wilpons to hire the man no one wanted when they took in-house baseball lifer Terry Collins and named him manager of the losing bunch of players.  His success was not fast.  In fact, after the first two years of embarrassment to the club many were advocating he be put out to pasture, but the Wilpons held onto him for seven long years during which he easily became the losingest manager in club history.  Experience in the role is obviously not a guarantee of success either.

Then there is the polar opposite, hiring a total newcomer to the management ranks.  Some people have demonstrated an affinity for baseball leadership and decision making while swilling beers with others in the game of baseball, but that seeming to be erudition is a lot different in theory than in practice.  Often first timers develop into credible baseball managers but it's seldom a rookie year level of success displaying instant advancement to October baseball.  

The next type of candidacy is from someone who has had an extensive coaching career on the bench beside a manager or on the basepaths when his team is at bat.  These folks know inside out and backwards what goes into running a baseball team from a leadership perspective even if they have not yet had the mantle handed to them to be the guy with the lineup pencil in his pocket.  It's a little different than the truly green hire at the top but there is a bit of a thread of inexperience as you don't yet know how this individual would react to having the full pressure of being in charge.

So given these various approaches, it's clear that there are any number of valid former managers available for the position.  Hiring one of them comes with a track record of behavior and success easily gleaned from their resumes.  Sometimes a seeming "Golden Child" becomes available when either his contract expires or a recent termination makes him a top candidate for a new employer.

Some feel that the skippers with the longest track record are the ones who deserve consideration, but there's a big difference between the resume of a Dusty Baker (if the Astros let him go) vs. Terry Collins who was unemployable in the USA after his dual disasters in Houston and Anaheim.  Both clubs immediately improved after his departure.  Baker is a totally different class of manager but others would mention his age of 74 as down side when you and your young POBO are seeking to build a viable long term solution.  

The Mets are well versed in the unknown rookie manager having recently endured the likes of Luis Rojas and Mickey Callaway.  Each came with a big learning curve both about the game itself as well as in professional behavior motivating players and conducting himself as a leader whose behavior the club would like to see others emulate.  Consequently, while a high profile rookie manager with borderline Cooperstown playing resume being converted into a manager would mean much of the same risk as has been taken in the past.

Consequently, the smarter plan B if the "Golden Child" is not available would be to look at the long term coaches who have had perhaps a few seasons of minor league manager experience to accompany his long term major league on-the-field coaching resume.  

These types of candidates carry far less risk than the pure rookies in management while bringing the experience of another team's philosophy and organizational structure to add a new wrinkle to things the Mets wind up doing.  As such, a fresh-faced older manager getting his rookie chance for an MLB role would be highly loyal and grateful for the opportunity and perhaps is young enough to consider a realistic 5-year plan option.  There are a number of viable coaches to consider who have this background.

At this point, the conventional wisdom would be to hire a GM and have that person participate in the field manager decision.  Many don't realize that David Stearns has never hired a manager as he inherited the one in Milwaukee when he took charge of that organization's front office.  No one knows exactly what the sequence of hiring will be, but while it's possible to hold off on the GM for awhile, a uniformed manager is a much higher immediate priority.