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10/30/23

Reese Kaplan -- First Come Cuts, Then Arbitration Decisions


While many people are focused on the trades and free agent acquisitions the Mets and their as yet incomplete front office make to prepare for the upcoming 2024 season, there are other decisions that need to be made between now and then.  Already the Mets have dismissed six players from their 40-man roster -- Jonathan Arauz, Anthony Kay, Danny Mendick, Vinny Nittoli, Michael Perez and Rafael Ortega -- though they have five on the 60-day IL who need to be added back onto the roster in the near future.  

Going forward the Mets may decide it's not worth sacrificing 40-man roster slots to fringe players who are not necessarily part of the long term plans for success.  Now don't get me wrong.  It is not a direct criticism of a player like left handed pitcher Josh Walker, but given his fragile health and limited major league output it may be more prudent to offer up that roster spot to a newcomer than it would be to preserve it for someone like Walker who isn't necessarily a shoo-in to be a factor in Queens.  


A parallel decision making exercise must soon follow for the thirteen arbitration eligible players currently residing on the 40-man roster who will be facing salary increases despite an unclear value proposition for how much they deliver to the team.  Players can submit a projected new salary amount, teams can submit their own figure.  Then an arbiter will determine which number is more appropriate.  

First, let's take a look at the list including their number of big league seasons and the amount they're projected to be awarded by an arbiter:

  • Pete Alonso (5.000): $22 MM
  • Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
  • Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
  • John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
  • Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
  • Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
  • Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
  • Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
  • Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
  • David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
  • Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
  • DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
  • Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM

Now some of these decisions are brain dead simple.  You give Pete Alonso his sizeable payday in the hopes you extend the opportunity to negotiate between now and the end of the 2024 season about a long term contract extension.  Joey Lucchesi David Peterson, Drew Smith and DJ Stewart all earn very little and performed better than expected or in Peterson's case, not markedly worse by year end.  So that's five who should receive arbitration offers.


Now comes the harder part.  Does the team need to bring back Luis Guillorme?  While no one questions his defense, the fact is with the glut of infielders already on the roster he will not be anything more than a backup.  His hitting has gone downhill during the past couple of years but it's his health that is the bigger issue.  He's not helping the club if he's not available to play.

Another borderline case is a one dimensional player but it's not defense that is his standout skill.  Outfielder Tim Locastro is certainly a capable base stealer and with Starling Marte's health and overall batting condition uncertain it may not be too quick to sever ties with a spare outfielder and pinch runner.  


The one who probably causes the most agita on current roster is big Daniel Vogelbach,  Thus far in his eight year major league career he's worn out his welcome with Seattle, Toronto, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.  Now the Mets have to decide if his modest paycheck of $2.6 million is worth paying for his home run and RBI production as a part time DH or part time pinch hitter.  He cannot run, cannot field and has a hard time getting on base (while clogging them when he is there).  David Stearns showed him the door while in Milwaukee and it may be time for a sequel to take palce in New York.

Then you have the passel of would-be relief pitchers.  None of Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod, John Curtiss nor Elieser Hernandez have done enough to warrant a guaranteed seven figure contract to return, particularly when roster spots are needed for newcomers.  You could make a minor case for Trevor Gott who started off badly but then put together some more solid outings in September. 


So if you went the hard core roster rebuild direction, then you would be looking at sending potentially eight of these thirteen players out the door to make room for others who potentially could be more productive.  It's not necessarily a given that this level of cleaning house will take place and it's also possible that some of the players could be moved in trades rather than simply cut loose.  

On the other hand, if those eight non-guaranteed spots open up, then the Mets have plenty of opportunity to acquire via trades and free agency quite a few new faces who likely could exceed the output Steve Cohen has gotten from any of the players on this list.  It's a gamble but not of the magnitude of record setting salary commitments for people nearing retirement age.  


12 comments:

  1. Reese, we are thinking much the same way on keepers vs. departed’s, and I did an article for this coming Thursday that is not as methodically detailed as yours. It is just about who I want to keep or not keep, thoughts David Stearns is grappling with right now. Many in the lists where he may be looking for better replacements.

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  2. Does anyone remember or have the list of potential Rule 5 draft players that might need to be protected with a 40 man roster spot?

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  3. My picks for non-tender are about the same - Brigham, Coonrod, Guillorme, Hernandez, and Vogelbach. If I thought I needed the space Curtiss is the next one on the fence. I would tender arbitration contracts to Alonso, Gott, Locastro, Lucchesi, Peterson, Smith, and Stewart.

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  4. I don't know why everyone is so quick to give up on Guillorme? If Mauricio is penciled in as either the starting 2B or 3B, it stands to reason that a late-inning defensive replacement is going to come in handy. Plus, he can spell Lindor. I'd keep him.

    To me, the no-brainer is Vogelbach. He's a one-dimensional player who'd dimension is inconsistent to say the least. I'm sure he's a great guy, but he is also a symbol of the past regime.

    I'd also keep Hernandez. He was hurt all last year but could be one of those AAAA "swingman" types that can come up and make an emergency start, or eat up some innings. They are going to need somebody to do this regardless. Why give up another prospect to get another Hernandez?

    The others to offer arb are Pete, Gott, Lucchesi, and Peterson. I think we saw the real DJ Stewart at the end of the season, while Drew Smith and the rest of the relievers need to take their inability to throw strikes elsewhere.

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  5. Remember 1969,
    There should be a list of players who have to be protected out closer to the date 40 man rosters have to be submitted.In the past that has been November 20.

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  6. Ugh...never mind about Hernandez! I just checked his stats. Absolutely horrible.

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  7. Dan, I think in a world of 26 man rosters, including only 13 offensive players, Luis is a luxury we can’t afford. In the 1960’s they had 15 offensive players, and what you suggest for him would have been perfect. Luis last year looked fat to me, he needs to be lean and quick to have a real chance of sticking anywhere. He is not a sufficient run producer. I’d rather call up Acuna to play SS if Lindor got hurt, say, mid season.

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  8. I tend to agree with Tom about Guillorme. While he is a fine fielder, that is his one dimension at this point.

    It will be interesting to see how they Put the roster together, but my preference is to find a utility guy who can be more productive at the plate, especially if they are going to carry a defense-first outfielder as their 5th outfielder I still like Locastro who while he does not hit much, can provide good defense in all three positions and he can run.

    This team needs to get more athletic. Guillorme does not help in that pursuit.

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  9. Late comment

    Drop:

    Brigham
    Coonrod
    Curtiss
    Guillorme
    Hernandez
    Vogelbach

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  10. Be careful about dropping Vogelbach. He bounced back after a bad start. He gets on base , he has power,he bats lefty. Instead of harping on what he can’t do, appreciate what he can do.

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  11. Anon . I am sorry - I cannot agree with you about Vogelbach.

    In March/April he was 13 for 48 (.271) with 1 double and 1 home run. In August, he was 14 for 59 (.237) with 0 doubles and 6 home runs. In September he was 9 for 21 (.428) with 1 double and 0 home runs.

    While his average wasn't terrible in the last two months, for a one dimensional player that is only good for a DH, they have to get more production than 1 double and 6 home runs over a two month run of the season.

    I stand by my comment above that the team needs to get more athletic and like Guillorme, Vogelbach does not help to get that done.

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  12. Too many want to keep Trevor. He Gott nothin’. Cut ‘em.

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