In every prospect list compilation, challenging questions arise.
Such as:
How the heck do you rank a guy like Joander Suarez?
He's not on the Mets' Top 30 prospect list as of October 13.
Suarez was horrible for a long time this season.
The 6'3" 250 pound righty bull slipped to 3-9, 5.69 on August 4.
That's bad, all the while his Brooklyn home park being a pitcher’s park.
And in his 5th minor league season.
Lots of injury down time in his career. Seemingly going nowhere fast,
How do you spell:
C..A..R..E..E..R O..V..E..R?
H..O..P..E..L..E..S..S?
Then the guy goes out, and starting in early July, begins to scream in defiant reply!!!!!!!
NOT OVER, NOT HOPELESS!!
He screamed, you see, thru his suddenly superior pitching results.
It started on July 8. From July 8 to July 28, he threw 23 innings, allowing just 15 hits, 5 earned runs, and fanning an eye-opening 32.
Then, August 4, he had a so-so outing. Allowed 4 runs.
But on August 11, he threw a 6 inning stunner, a 3 hit, no run, 11 K game. "Jake" stats.
Picked up the win. And... that brilliant outing caught my attention.
Then another shaky game, 4 innings, 4 runs.
Was the prior "Jake" game a fluke?
It seems not…
You see, in his subsequent (and last) 4 starts of 2023, 3 of which were after a late-season promotion to AA, he 1) throws a friggin' no hitter, and 2) in 24 total innings in those 4 outings, allows a paltry 4 hits, no runs, fans 25, and wins 3 of the 4.
His 3-9, 5.69 turned into 7-9, 4.24, in a matter of 6 starts.
The ball also stays in the park when he pitches.
In 108 IP, he allowed just 6 HRs in 2023, and 12 HRs in 215 career IP.
(By an unfair comparison, but to stress the point, the Dodgers’ Lance Lynn, while facing MLB hitters, allowed a mind-blowing 48 HRs in 186 innings this year.)
Heck, Dylan Bundy gave up 12 HRs in just 25 AAA innings this year.
So, I ask you…how do you rank a Joander Suarez who, in 5 of his last 6 starts spanning 30 innings allowed no runs, 7 hits and fanned 36?
Prior to that July 8 turnaround-beginning start, his ERA was a stratospheric 7.23, so it dropped an incredible 3 runs by year end.
You see, ERAs are just that - averages, and early in the season, in his first 9 outings (as I presume he was reacclimating himself from prior years' injuries), he had 4 absolute stinkers where he allowed 22 earned runs in 13 innings. That’s an ERA killer. The last of those four clunkers was in early June.
The tide then began to turn.
His season's finish, factually speaking, was diametrically opposed to his 2023 season's beginning.
Brutal to Brilliant.
So I ask you again:
Where do you rank him?
As a break out prospect, or just a guy on an unsustainable hot streak?
I sense it is the former.
Got it together, and breaking out bigly.
So, yes, he's on my Top 35 prospect list, as you will see on Tuesday.
Suarez certainly had a great finish. The optimist in me says that he figured something out that was inhibiting his progress and it is all good stories from here.
ReplyDeleteBut should you re-rank him because of a couple of good months when the rest of the data is not good? I would pass. See what happens in the spring.
Paul, I did rank him, because in 9 of his last 11 starts, excluding 2 not so good ones, in those 9, he threw 54 innings, fanned 68, allowed 5 earned runs and 20 hits. So, in those 9 games, the opponents hit barely over .100 against him. That's sensational enough for me to rank him in the top 35.
ReplyDeleteI still think he is a starter long shot...but a pen arm? I can see that happening in 2024 if he picks up where he left off.
Hi Tom,
ReplyDeleteI think Matt Allen needs to be put on the 40 man roster to protect him. Do you see the Mets doing this or do you see another team selecting him an putting him on the IL all season?
Raw, absolutely no risk on Matt Allan. He only has 10 pro innings in the low minors, more surgeries than Evel Knievel, and is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season to pitch, as I believe his last surgery is Jan 2022. I can't imagine any team picking him. After all his adversity, you have to wonder if he will still be playing at the end of 2024. I have, to be clear, had no updates on his progress.
ReplyDeleteRaw, I think a much more pertinent question is: will Joander Suarez be added to the 40 man? Some pitching-poor organization could take a flyer on him. If he os added, that will speak volumes.
ReplyDeleteI agree that he is a top prospect. He had TJ surgery I think and is coming back from that. Look at Wheeler he had TJ surgery and was not terrific when first coming back. The Mets sent him to AAA to overcome his problems and he did. This was a big mistake letting him go. Suarez needs to be added to the 40 man roster to protect him and I think they should.
ReplyDeleteVentura is another pitcher recovering from TJ surgery and was pitching not as good as Suárez but maybe needs more time to recover. He also needs protecting from Rule 5 draft and added to 40 man roster or we might lose him. My guess is that the Mets will not add him and we will lose him in rule 5 draft. I just hope he doesn’t turn into a Wheeler.
Matt ALlen! Wow! He was Th Baby Met before the Baby Mets. Let’s hope our four baby Mets do better than he did.
ReplyDeleteThere is plenty of room on the 40 to take a chance on him though I need to see a full season at AA to put him on a Top 30 list
ReplyDeleteMack, his last 90 days, 1.98 ERA, 50 IP, just 2 HRs allowed, 31 hits, just 10 walks, 63 Ks. If Tidwell did that, we’d be doing cartwheels. I think this is getting past injuries and getting it all together. I lean on adding him.
ReplyDeleteYou add him
DeleteI'll wait
Raw, guys picked in the 40 man have to be added to the picking team’s major league roster. Only Suárez in jeopardy.
ReplyDeleteHere is how the minor league Rule 5 works, and if the Mets have fear of losing a Ventura or Allan, they can protect them thusly:
“In the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, players not on a 40-man roster, plus who were signed at age 19 or older and have been in professional baseball for four years were eligible to be selected.
For the Minor League phase, players not protected on a 38-man Triple-A roster from the aforementioned group are also eligible to be taken. Teams with a full 38-man Triple-A roster are not permitted to make any picks.
Each player taken in the Minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft requires a $24,500 payment to be made to the original team. That’s compared to $100,000 for selections made in the Major League phase.
Another key difference between the two phases is those taken during the Minor League rounds do not need to remain on a team’s 26-man roster or be offered back to the original club for $50,000 if attempting to clear them through waivers.”
Fair enough.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info. Tom. I already knew that. But Ventura if he stays in the Mets organization I see starting at AA. If not added to 40 man roster I think he needs to be added to AAA before the rule 5 draft.
ReplyDeleteEvery player you protect means one less player you can draft. Maybe some new blood is needed.
ReplyDeleteNor true
DeleteOne less player in Rule 5, perhaps, but you can’t draft someone only if your 40 man roster is full. Keep a slot open for a player IF you think selecting him in the Rule 5 draft can help right out of the gate in 2024.
ReplyDelete