Silver Linings Can Be Found - When You Look For Them
Butto, Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson.
The Mets’ “fringe starter contingent”…The Fab Fringe Four.
My mother Julia Corrigan Brennan, God rest her soul, always used to say:
“If you can’t say something good about someone, don’t say anything at all.”
Mom was a Mets fan - and a big fan of my brother Steve when he was a lethal high school starter back in the 1980s, but as I often do, I digress…
So…as Mom would want me to, what can I say GOOD about the above 4?
Butto, Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson, that is.
There ARE in fact good things to say:
DAVID PETERSON:
Just 3-8, 5.03, but his 128 Ks in 111 innings is an impressive stat.
Last 2 seasons, a gaudy 254 Ks in 217 innings. A slightly higher K/9 rate over the last 2 seasons than…MAX SCHERZER? Really? Yes, really.
And in his last 15 games, Peterson’s 3.56 ERA is indicative of him figuring a lot out, leading to discontinuance of his early season poundings. Can he retain those lessons learned in 2024? Hope so.
TYLOR MEGILL:
He had ups and downs, and real mid season problems in both the majors and in AAA.
Before his last 8 Mets starts, his Mets ERA was 5.64.
After those final eight outings? Down to 4.70.
His ERA in those 8 starts? 3.00.
45 innings, 15 runs. And he did win 9 this year.
Maybe those last 8 starts are telling us we are giving him insufficient credit for being a credible 2024 starter candidate.
JOEY LUCCHESI:
They only let poor Joey Rudolph play in 9 Reindeer Mets games, but after the foggy 2023 season ended, he posted a totally unfoggy 4-0, 2.89.
You go ahead, you nitpicker, and minimize him if you choose to, but I won’t.
One thing I know: 4-0, 2.89 is GOOD.
If all our pitchers went 4-0, the Mets would have finished roughly 162-0.
Joey was 4-0, everyone else that pitched for the Moribund Mets was 71-87. Just pointing that out. Just call him Joey Perfect, given his perfect 4-0.
JOSE BUTTO:
He also got in just nine Butto Reindeer games, and had a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. Which is bad because…? Can't think of why bad. Can you?
He was just 1-4, which in an organization with a mediocre offense and bullpen can happen when a guy pitches good. After all, our back-to-back-Cy Young guy was just 21-17.
But while Jose was not homer-prone with the Mets in 2023, he gave up 17 HRs in 91 AAA innings, a poor rate that cannot easily be dismissed nor forgotten going into 2024.
Summarizing the 4 hurlers above as described, and saying nice things about them, these "fringe 4" did well in either their limited innings (Lucchesi, Butto) or late in the season (Megill, Peterson).
Combined, they were a pretty decent 17-20 (.460). The rest of the team’s pitchers (58-67) had a .464 win %, so "the rest" ended up in a virtual dead heat with the fringies.
So I’m not stressing out here, with regards to what the Fringe 4 will do next year.
I expect they’ll collectively improve. Perhaps even improve a lot.
Don’t write them off.
Or I'll write you off as being on the fringe.
Of course, maybe it’s me who is on the fringe about these four.
Danny Muno certainly thinks I am, noting my proclivity for talking up fringe players.
NO, DREW GILBERT WONT SWITCH TO THIRD BASE
The Mets love repositioning their offensive players, so someone asked me if budding star Drew Gilbert could play 3rd. Well, he has a gun for an arm and is an agile fielder, but there is one small problem…he throws lefty. Nope, that makes it no 3B, and only outfield or 1st base for him…and I have a feeling first base is not an option, for Pete’s sake.
FRIENDLY BASEBALL PARKS - DO THEY MATTER?
Texas is headed to the World Series.
Texas has a better team offense than the Mets, no disputing that, but how much of it is due to disparities in home parks?
Let's look up the data....
Mets scored just 31 fewer runs than Texas did in road games.
Close.
Mets scored 133 fewer runs than Texas did in home games.
Not close.
Texas scored 85 more runs at home than on the road.
Happy hitters.
The Mets scored 17 fewer runs at home than on the road.
Unhappy hitters.
Texas is going to the World Series despite missing its ace, Jake deGrom, for 75% of the season.
The Mets, on the other hand, failed to play meaningful 2nd half baseball.
I wonder how much of Texas' success is due to empowered and happy hitters, leading to success? And how much hitting in a pitcher's park sets back the Mets' success?
I know of only three people that ponder stuff like that and conclude there is a Mets home park problem: me, my brother Steve, and one of our favorite readers, Gary.
I wonder if David Stearns ever wonders about that?
(Stearns: “Is Brennan bringing fences up again? He’s SO annoying”.)
Of course, our fringe starters, which is the first topic of today's article, might not like a more hitter-friendly Citifield. They want the field DEEPER.
2009 dimensions would be just fine with them.
My advice to you readers, though?
Go deep, and stay deep, my friends.
Lucchesi deserves more of a serious chance given his performance, history and now good health.
ReplyDeleteButto deserves more starting opportunities as he handled 2023 rather well.
Peterson and Megill could be depth pieces but see if they can be swapped for real middle relievers to other clubs who will buy into their collective 6-8 good starts per year forgetting every other one.
You better fall in love with at least two of these guys.
ReplyDeleteThey will get major innings in 2024
Lucchesi deserves more time to prove he can pitch at the MLB level. He came through in the starts he was given.
ReplyDeleteButto showed some real promise. He seems to understand the 'art' of pitching at a young age. That tells me he will only get better. Don't expect him to lead the league in K/9 but rather to induce lots of light contact outs. Pretty good match for Citi Field, right Tom?
The other two had better find a way to maximize their performance over 45-50 pitches because they are needed as middle relievers. Starting pitching has not worked out for them.
Maybe Taijuan Walker would come back to the Mets to improve the rotation?
ReplyDeleteThose guys definitely finished the year strong. What happened to Megill and Peterson at the beginning of the year? Trading Max/Verlander gave Luchessi and Butto a chance to show some of their stuff. They probably should have cut Carassco sooner. Between these 4 guys, Quintana/Senga and the depth emerging out of AA/AAA this year the SP might not be the biggest need if the Mets can snag a guy like Yamamota. Allow them to focus more on the pen...maybe a DH
ReplyDeleteGood points, folks.
ReplyDeleteMore often than not, as a counterpoint, the fringe makes us cringe. And leads Cohen to a spending binge.
ReplyDeleteThe competition is for the number 5 spot
ReplyDeleteMy choice is Peterson with the others relegated to bullpen roles.
The competition may be for the number 4 & 5 spots
ReplyDeleteor 5th & 6th spots if one or two Japanese pitchers are
pitching once a week.
The others should be our AAA depth since they all have options.
Sticking them in the pen leaves you fewer starting options ready
to call up if needed. Besides, we need to keep them stretched
out and showing us improvement as starters.
Tom, the Mets have moved the fences as least twice already, maybe 3 times.
What is the square footage inside Citifield compared to other ballparks, like
Texas? It's not like every ball a player get all of is clanking off a wall,
like they did initially off the Great Wall of Flushing.
How big is Citifield exactly? What do you suggest should be done?
I keep sayin keep all four on the the 26 man roster if they don’t stink it up n ST. A good BP guy who gives you 60 innings is more valuable than a Triple A starter who is stashed for emergency starts. Besides I’m tired of Triple A guys with options throwing so many innings on a rotating basis.
ReplyDeleteAll four of these guys would also make good middle relievers.
DeleteEspecially Megill and Peterson
One of these 4 will be the #5 starter and one will be the #6 starter in AAA, with also Vasil waiting in the wings. That leaves the other two pitchers to be traded or like Mack said maybe one of them can prosper in the Pen. With Vasil, Blade, Scott, Stuart, and Hamel ready in the next year or two Stearns should move two of these guys preferably Peterson and Megill. I think Vasil gets a crack for the #5 spot this Spring as well.
ReplyDeleteProblem is with all these SP’s only Blade seems to have the ceiling of a #3 SP. All the rest look like #4 and #5 SP. Then again if we have Yama and Senga as our #1 and #2 it may be all we need.
Multi inning relievers becoming more important with lack of length amongst most starters now. Can Magill throw high 90s for 2 innings? Three multi inning guys in bp. Number 5 starter out of the other 3 determined in ST. The other two multi inning BP guys?? Get two lock down 7th 8th inning guys.along with Yamamoto and solid mid rotation guy of course
ReplyDeleteJge, I want all four starting or in the METS pen if retained. They can be the next Trevor Williams / Seth Lugo types. If they can’t be good at both, maybe KC needs them.
ReplyDeleteAmazin Z, I agree on your assessment.
ReplyDeleteNickel, it isn’t just dimensions, it is carry. Your big 3 boppers have all been measurably better in their Mets career on the road vs. home. That needs to be fixed.
ReplyDeleteIf I’m Stearns, I sit down with both and discuss that topic.
Paul, maybe. I share a thought about Taijuan and a few others in a few days.
ReplyDeleteTom I can't believe it but my mother said the same thing: "If you can't say something nice don't say anything at all" except of course about the Citi-field fences so there are exceptions and she agreed. I will have time in Jan. if you want set up a meet at Citi to correct this egregious mistake because "Chicks dig the long ball" not the long fly out.
ReplyDeleteWhat makes any of you believe that any of those 4 pitchers would make a good reliever?
ReplyDeletePeterson really didn't. Relievers are a different breed of pitcher, and the best ones have always been relievers throughout their pro careers. Throwing so-so starters into the pen does not promise you a good bullpen...it is probably folly. They are specialists.
Also, even McNeil and Nimmo (and others), proved this year, that when you get a gopher ball, it will go out with ease, and it is not scraping the back of the wall. Weren't the Mets like 4th in the league in HRs?
Mothers are the glue that holds it all together.
ReplyDeleteNickel, these, I hear you on specialists. Look no further than Sewald.
ReplyDeleteBut if it means you do split duty and stay in the majors, or be a shaky starter and disappear, I’d opt for the former.
I have to ask about Megill and Peterson: where on earth is the fire? Toughen up. Maybe the problem is they are laid-back non-warriors. Show some flames, boys.
Uhh,most relievers were once starters. Who for one reason or other couldn’t cut it. Many reliverswere once successful starters.
ReplyDelete"most relievers were once starters. Who for one reason or other couldn’t cut it. Many reliverswere once successful starters."
ReplyDeletethis was true decades ago...not so much anymore
I'd like to see Lucchesi and Peterson as 5th & 6th starters and try McGill in relief.
"have to ask about Megill and Peterson: where on earth is the fire? Toughen up. Maybe the problem is they are laid-back non-warriors. Show some flames"
Tom, this is what I mean about starters and relievers being a different breed.
Starters have to pace themselves for a long game and that calm poise is a sign of it.
Relievers need to come in like flame throwers who only have to throw maybe a few pitches and don't have to hold anything back for later.