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11/12/23

My Spin - Francisco Alvarez



 We talked Friday about Pete Alonso, who I identified as one the 50 generational players currently in the game.

There's another Met reaching for that glorified list and should get there in a couple of years.

Catcher Francisco Alvarez.

No one has ever questioned if Alvarez was going to be a productive home run hitter. It's the rest of his game that was in question.

Yes, Alonso is considered almost one dimensional even though he has improved his defensive game greatly, but a catcher can't be a successful starter in this game by just doing one thing right.

Ya gotta play excellent defense plus hit competitively in some form.

Avarez went into the 2023 season as a long shot for starting that year, only a projected slugging output, and a miserable history behind the plate.

He ended the season as the Mets starting catcher.

Per Baseball Prospectus, he finished 4th in overall fielding ratings for all 30 starting catchers.

Per Stat Muse, he came in 2nd in all 30 starting catchers in home runs.

And.

He did all this being TWO YEARS YOUNGER than any other starting catcher.

Sure, he needs to raise the BA and cutback the strikeouts but...

THIS is the guy you lock up early.  

This is the guy you go all Braves template on. 8 year contract and how old would he be?

30.

This may turn out to be one of the all time great catchers in this game.

19 comments:

  1. Sign him long term. He just might be the Mets’ first home-grown offensive Hall of Famer. Why? He made his MLB debut 3 1/2 years younger than Pete Alonso. Most likely, Alvarez will have gaudy career hitting #s by the time he reaches Alonso’s debut age of 24 years, 111 days.

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    1. I never have understood why Latin players you sign at 16 are able to reach the Bigs quicker than stateside players out of either high school or college

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    2. I think it's maturity and the fact a lot of them come out of abject poverty so there's that drive to succeed so they can help not only themselves but their families

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    3. https://sports.yahoo.com/child-molesting-trainer-teenage-steroid-use-come-define-latin-american-baseball-010517552.html

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  2. The thing that has impressed me most about him is how hard he works to learn and improve. All the defensive ability he showed in the beginning of 2023 was the product of intense focus on learning a part of his game that was mediocre just a year earlier.

    His greatest failure last year was trying too hard - it led to some impetuous throws around the infield that got him in trouble and also some whiffs on pitches out of the zone early in the count that got him behind in counts and hurt his average. So with some calm and maturity, those issues will quickly disappear and he will move on to new heights.

    I'm in Mack's camp - this guy is going to be special.

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    1. I hope they rest him until pitchers and catchers report

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  3. Mack, true about the top Latin players…Soto, Acuna Jr, Alvarez…you don’t see stateside guys ready to go at age 20. Why that is, is a good question.

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    1. My guess: kids 16 y.o. or younger in poor countries are playing many games year-round, under quality coaches.

      Those in the US still have 2 years of HS, with many fewer games, and then college or rookie leagues, also with relatively few games.

      20-year-olds in the Caribbean are "veterans" in their leagues.

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  4. This is going to be an exciting team with Williams and Gilbert about a year away.

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  5. Corbin Carroll?

    565 AB, 116 runs, 161 H, 76 RBI, 57 STL, 70 BB and HBP, .285/.362/.506

    Player #2:

    672 AB, 71 R, 156 H, 65 RBI, 10 STL, 51 BB and HBP, .218/.275/.340

    Big, big difference.

    Player # 2? BABY METS IN TOTAL FOR 2023

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  6. Our Baby Mets were a big disappointment. Can they come through in 2024? Sometimes prospects come through after disappointing rookie seasons. Fingers crossed.

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    1. I love prospects but they all don't pan out

      I will trade them for an established star under team control for 3 or more years every day

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  7. Alvarez is definitely a keeper. Assuming he has a decent season this year, I’d lock him up long-term. Of the others, I have high hopes for Mauricio as our future 3B. I think he had a solid season this year with good D at 3rd, 20+ HR and an OBA of at least .320. Baty has this year to start figuring it out, and Vientos needs to hit because he’s a DH or nothing. I have more faith in Gilbert and Jett. I see Gilbert in a starting OF slot (RF, because his arm plays there) by the All-Star break, and Jett Williams potentially up by the trade deadline, shifting between 2B and the OF. I don’t see Acuña up until sometime in ‘25.

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  8. Established stars,3 or more years of control usually aren’t available!

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  9. Gentlemen, let’s get real. Mauricio and Vientos have major swing and miss issues. Not that Baty doesn’t, but those guys had it in the minors too. In fact, Mauricio is probably the worst of the four Baby Mets. He came out the gate better than Baty, but, the race is long.

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