Paul Articulates – The Rule 5 Draft

On December 6th of this year, in the middle of the MLB winter meetings in Nashville, the Rule 5 draft will be executed.  This process allows teams to select unprotected players from other teams’ rosters for a nominal ($50k) fee.  Selected players spend a year with the new team, but if they do not meet minimum playing time criteria, they are given back to their original team.  

This draft has existed since before the advent of free agency when talented players could get buried in the minors behind the incumbent MLB starter and never get a chance.  Rule 5 still exists and still sees participation from many teams.  Why?  Because sometimes there is a gem in the rough.  

Johann Santana was a Rule 5 pick by the Marlins, lifting him from the Astros’ system and giving him the chance to show what he could do.  The best in history?  How about Roberto Clemente?! The best Rule 5 pick by the Mets?  Wayne Garrett.

So what are the rules for this draft?  According to the Wiki:

The selection order of the teams is based on each team's win–loss record from the prior regular season, as in the amateur draft, each round starting with the team with the worst record and proceeding in order to the team with the best record. Teams may choose not to select any player with their pick, passing to the next team in the order. Any player selected under Rule 5 is immediately added to his new team's 40-man roster; thus, teams who do not have an available roster spot may not participate in the Rule 5 draft. Players who are not currently on their team's 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, but only after a standard exemption period has elapsed, per selection eligibility below.

If chosen in the Rule 5 draft, a player must be kept on the selecting team's major league active roster for the entire season that follows the draft—the player may not be optioned or designated to the minors. The selecting team may, at any time, waive the Rule 5 draftee. If a Rule 5 draftee clears waivers by not signing with a new MLB team, he must be offered back to the original team, effectively canceling the Rule 5 draft choice. Once a Rule 5 draftee spends an entire season on his new team's active roster, his status reverts to normal and he may be optioned or designated for assignment.

To prevent the abuse of the Rule 5 draft, the rule also states that the draftee must actually be active for at least 90 days. This keeps teams from drafting players, then placing them on the injured list for the majority of the season.

This brings us to the New York Mets, who needed to protect any prospects that were vulnerable to Rule 5 poaching by selecting them for the 40-man roster by November 14th.

There were five Mets players among their top 30 prospects that fit the definition of “Rule 5 vulnerable”: Alex Ramirez, Justin Jarvis, Luis Rodriguez, Jeremiah Jackson, and Coleman Crow.  Don’t worry about the other prospects – they are either already protected (e.g. Luisangel Acuna) or lower than their top-30 prospects and therefore low risk of loss.

Of those five, the Mets protected Ramirez.  Ramirez was highly touted as a “five tool” player when he was originally signed, showed some promise in 2022 with the St. Lucie Mets and was promoted to high-A Brooklyn.  He regressed last year, slashing .221/.310/.317 with the Cyclones so the buzz around him died down a bit.  However, the Mets thought highly enough of his talent to place him on the 40-man roster to protect him.

Jarvis, who appeared in twelve games with the Syracuse Mets last year, pitched to an 0-7 record with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.  With several higher-performing pitching prospects moving up through the system and the Mets poised to grab a few free agent pitchers to make the MLB team “competitive” this year, Jarvis figured to be a lower priority.  

Rodriquez, who has spent quite a bit of time on the injured list, was still playing in the rookie league earlier this season before being promoted to low-A St. Lucie.  

Coleman Crow was one of two minor league pitchers the Mets acquired from the Angels in the June Eduardo Escobar trade.  Crow was assigned to the AA Rumble Ponies, but was never listed on their active roster, so he has not yet thrown a pitch in the Mets organization.

This brings us to Jeremiah Jackson, an infielder that was acquired in the trade that sent Dominic Leone to the Angels.  Jackson has shown some versatility and promise in his half-year with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.  He slashed .264/.344/.457 in 37 games with the Mets where he recorded 24 RBI.    

I believe that he was the highest performer of the five that could have been protected, and was certainly the best of the four that were not.  However, it may have been prudent for the Mets to draw the line above Jackson because the spots on the 40-man roster are very valuable.  

There are several infielders in AA/AAA that are above Jackson in the depth chart to fill one or maybe two spots in the Mets’ MLB infield, so to protect him on the roster means to lose a slot that could be used to poach some other team’s prospect in the Rule 5 draft. Also, he has struggled with contact in his 2023 AA season, piling up 144 strikeouts in 440 at-bats between the Southern League and the Eastern League.

Two other players of note were not protected this month.  Matt Allan, who was a very highly ranked RHP out of high school selected by the Mets was not in the top 30 prospects because he has been injured since 2021, undergoing three different arm surgeries.  Joander Suarez, another name that was not in the top 30 prospects for the Mets has had a breakthrough this year since being called up to AA.  

Suarez is best known for pitching a no-hitter for the AA Rumble Ponies and being selected as Eastern League Pitcher of the Week.  But he also should be known for pitching 18 scoreless innings in AA this year, striking out 19, and compiling an eye-watering 0.39 WHIP.  Of all the names mentioned in this article, Suarez is the one that I would protect.

Your thoughts?