Reese Kaplan -- Finding Starting Pitchers Via Free Agency

So the subject on tap today is what pitching is available in free agency to help round out the Mets starting rotation.  If you can believe what has been said about the Mets wanting to build a younger and less expensive long term solution rather than a buy-a-pennant approach taken by Billy Eppler in the recent past, let's today focus on starting pitchers at age 32 or under with a WAR rating of 1.0 or higher.  You will note that some conspicuous names are missing from this list due to age (which often leads to inflated cost based upon past achievements) or most recent underachieving on the mound.

What Starting Pitcher Free Agents to Consider

Let's get the Japanese players out front as they don't typically have the same statistical equivalency as they have not yet appeared in the North American version of Major League Baseball.  There's nothing new to be written about youngster Yoshinobu Yamamoto who stands to sign a first-time contract in according to most reports in the neighborhood of $200 million.  

The question is for how many years and what opt-out clauses.  If we assume it's an 8-year deal, that's a pretty hefty nearly $25 million per season for a guy who has yet to throw a single pitch in America despite his equivalent multiple MVP and Cy Young awards in Japan.

30 year old Shota Imanaga is a left handed version of Kodai Senga and would be expected to net a similar deal for $75 million over a period of 5 years.  Given his track record that seems a more than fair price and someone who should most definitely be on the Mets front office radar.

We're leaving out Shoehei Ohtani who makes the performance metrics for sure as well as the age limitation.  Anyone bidding on him in this offseason is considering him a hitter first as he will be recovering from surgery which will make pitching unavailable for the 2024 season.  It's a hefty price to pay and no one is clear how much the recovery might also impact his hitting.  As hard as it is to say it, the team is probaby better off filling multiple needs rather than sinking more for one player than has ever been paid before for one man's services.

Blake Snell is coming off a truly awesome 2023 season and you'd have to think both he and his agent are ecstatic that his Cy Young award happened the year he's hitting free agency.  He's gone a bit up and down in his career, twice winning league ERA titles and sporting a winning record, a 21 win season and a career ERA of just 3.20.  His ending salary with the Padres is just over $16 million and with having turned down a Qualifying Offer he will cost not just money but draft compensation to the team that signs the big lefty.  My gut says to bypass Snell.

The 6'6" southpaw Jordan Montgomery picked a great time to shine.  He was doing rock solid work for the Cardinals this year before a mid-year swap to the pennant contending Texas Rangers where he was even better.  For the season the 10-11 record doesn't jump out at you, but the 2023 season ERA of a combined 3.20 ERA at an ending salary of just $10 million.  He'll be highly desirable based upon recent achievement and at age 31 should be able to net a 4-year deal.

A great strategy for the long term is paying attention to quality players who have been cut loose from their teams due to injury recovery.  Through that lens the Brewers' former star hurler Brandon Woodruff has a career ERA of just 3.10.  

David Stearns obviously knows him better than anyone else in the front office and can determine if it's worth considering extending him a contract knowing his shoulder surgery won't allow him to pitch at all in 2024.  If the window for winning truly is 2025 then it's a gamble worth considering.  His ending number was going to be $11.6 million before the Brewers non-tendered him.  How much it would take and how well he recovers are great unknowns, but it's certainly worth considering for the future.

If you truly want to roll the dice and damn the topedos from the fans and media, then you would have look at Los Angeles Dodgers' indicted star Julio Urías who may not be allowed to play for quite some time.  Take a quick look at the numbers and you see someone with a 60-25 record and a 3.11 ERA for his entire career.  He strikes out about 1 per inning and walks just 2.4 per 9 innings.  You can't argue with results.  You can, of course, argue with embracing the known perpetrator of domestic violence.  

First the Dodgers had to deal with the Trevor Bauer kerfuffle and now comes court dates for Urias.  I'd like to win games and on the mound Urias would help but I guess it's the question of human decency that suggests they continue looking elsewhere.

In the been there, done that perspective there's Michael Wacha.  Ummm...no.

While Eduardo Rodriguez formerly of the Detroit Tigers put together his best-ever season at age 30, for his career he's a pitcher who routinely hits the 4.00 ERA and doesn't seem to be a marked improvement over the in-house options but will cost much more than his ending salary of $14 million.  

One pitcher over the self imposed age limit of 32 is former NY Met reliever Seth Lugo who reinvented himself as a full time starting pitcher this past season with the San Diego Padres.  He finished the year commendably (and better than any Mets fans would have expected as he was a far more successful reliever than starter.  

He was 8-7 over 26 starts with a finishing ERA of 3.57 showing his usual good control.  Considering that as an aggregate for his career he's only logged about 2 full seasons worth of starts, I'd look past his 34 year age and consider him on a 2-year deal in the $10 million or so per year level to reward him.

Lucas Giolito is a love him or hate him kind of guy.  Many here feel that the Mets erred in not selecting him in the draft while others feel that his gross inconsistency makes him a less than stellar choice now.  For his career Giolito is just under .500 with a mid 4 ERA.  I'd take a hard pass considering he's already earning $10.4 million and likely is looking for more.  

Michael Lorenzen will begin his 2024 season at age 32 with a record slightly over .500 and an ERA of 4.11.  While that might be decent for a 4th or 5th starter the fact is the Mets already have those types in Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill who would cost $6 to $8 million less.  Pass.

Former Chris Bassitt teammate back in Oakland, Sean Manaea stayed on the west coast with the Padres and Giants.  He's another back end starter with a winning record and a career ERA of 4.10.  He looks like he may be transitioning to a bullpen role at this stage of his career but since he's already earning $10 million he doesn't look like a top choice.

Another former Oakland hurler is the recovering Frankie Montas most recently of the Yankees.  His record is slightly better than some of the others with a career ERA of 3.90 but you never know after surgery what to expect when he returns.  I don't see he would be the best choice given his salary and uncertain health.

Jack Flaherty is an interesting pitcher who might come at a slight discount given his poor performance after a career with the Cardinals transitioned into a second half of mediocrity with the Orioles.  Even with his bad performance at Camden Yards he still sports a career ERA of just 3.75.  At age 28 he fits the profile and his ending salary for 2023 was $5.4 million.  If you offered up $6 million or so per year you might get his attention and he could be a long term back end starter.

Another name from the past is the still young but mostly horrific Noah Syndergaard.  He's bounced around trying to recapture his dominance during his Mets days but it has not gone well at all.  He still has a winning record and a career ERA of just 3.71.  However, he's been rapidly spiraling downhill and might take a one-year "prove it" kind of contract.  This past season he dropped down from $1 million to $13 million and likely will get significantly less in his new deal.  

I am not sure how low he'd have to go to roll the dice.  I'm thinking an incentive-laden contract with a low minimum base of say $7 million might do it.  

Trade are also possible as are some minor league free agent acquisitions without track records, but you are planning to reach into Steve Cohen's deep pockets to expand your talent pool, these choices are among the more interesting options available.