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12/2/23

Reese Kaplan -- Free Agent Options at First Base...


While David Wright was a member of the Mets it appeared finally that the club's long and neverending search for quality at third base had come to an end.  Nowadays many people feel the same way about first base with the arrival and success of slugger Pete Alonso.  

Unfortunately everyone is well aware of the issues of either extending him via a costly free agent contract or trading him away and facing very nearly Tom Seaver-like backlash for having done so.  Then again the third option -- having him play out his last year of eligibility and losing him as a free agent exists as well.  None of these options is ideal but they do represent reality.

Consequently, it's time to look at some of the first base options the club might want to consider as backups to Alonso or to take over first base should Alonso either leave or become the DH.  Some are good, some are not.  


Mark Vientos would be the in-house option number one.  While he flashed power during his extended if asymmetrical trial during 2023, he didn't hit for average nor excel anywhere with the glove.  While Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio fight it out for the hot corner, that battle kind of pushes Vientos diagonally across the diamond to work out at first base (or off the field entirely as a DH).  

For his career Vientos always showed that it took about a half season of steady playing time before he could adjust to the newer level of pitching, but Buck Showalter and Billy Eppler were not on the same page about the use of Daniel Vogelbach and that limited Vientos' number of ABs.  In September it was the first time Vientos played regularly and as a result he turned in his best portion of the season.  The .230 average won't sets anyone's heart aflutter, he did hit 6 HRs in just 87 ABs.  If you build on that output, you're looking at a 30 HR player which isn't shabby, though only a 75% output compared to what Alonso would be expected to apply.


The top free agent available to the Mets would be proven slugger Rhys Hoskins who will be looking to recover from his missed 2023 season due to injury.  He's more-or-less in the Alonso mold in terms of mediocre batting average but steady run production.  He has averaged 36 HRs and 98 RBIs over a 162 game period for his career.  The big right handed power hitter was earning $12 million as he transitions to free agency.  It's kind of hard to know where he would rank in salary.  He might prefer a long term deal at a modest increase or he might want a one year pillow deal to reestablish himself as a quality major leaguer.  Bear in mind that he'd no longer be in the Philadelphia launching pad so his power could be impacted at Citifield.  If he came to New York he could be the first baseman with Alonso (if still here) shifted to DH

Unfortunately, the rest of the choices are in the latter stages of their careers and while they are possibilities, players over age 36 call to mind the buy-a-pennant strategy that is at risk for both injury and diminished skills.  Still, there are a handful of quality players such as Carlos Santana, Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano and surprising free agent Joey Votto.  None would be long term answers but could substitute as a short term DH.

The couple of slightly younger options could include folks like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron or Ji Man Choi.  None have the expected output you'd get from Alonso and even if they cost a small fraction of what you'd pay for the Polar Bear you wind up getting what you pay for.  Cron has had a few seasons of upper 20s and 30 HRs but a few were in homer happy Coors Field, though he did well for a short stay in Tampa as well.  Cooper has power akin to Keith Hernandez but not the batting average nor glove.  Choi is a little older and never exceeded 20 HRs per season and at this stage of his career should be regarded as a benchwarmer.  


Being POBO is going to give David Stearns plenty of challenges and the Pete Alonso one is hard to solve.  Do you overpay to keep him here and then find out his 2023 batting average is now where he will remain?  Do you trade him away for several pieces and hope that they amount to more than Pat Zachry, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman did?  Do you let him walk away as a free agent after he turns down a QO and all you get is a draft pick?  I guess that's why Stearns gets paid the big bucks.   



17 comments:

  1. Vientos could be worth watching, and sitting on a Pete extension until the All Star break to sign or trade. Hoskins is an intriguing thought.

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  2. If you want to spend bigger bucks, there is always Cody Bellinger who provides decent back-up first base defense.

    I am not in favor of that move. My preferred move is a pillow contract for Rhys Hoskins as the DH. Vientos would be my second choice.

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  3. Not many good choices - this just makes a strong argument for re-signing Pete.
    Hoskins is a nice backup, may be a good DH, but he is not in Pete's tier.

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  4. I have a post 2 Sundays from now on the 5 first basemen that will be picked in the first 20 picks of the next draft

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  5. I would like to keep Alonso. But if he’s really looking for something close to an Aaron Judge contract ,and NYM decide that his low batting average (and other analytics numbers) is getting worse, then you have to consider moving him to avoid letting him walk to just get a draft pick. It would receive plenty of backlash , but they have to nail the return. Difficult to gauge an Alonso return for one year under control. I’m thinking Baltimore for OF Cedric Mullins (2 yrs under control) + a prospect … Seattle for SP Emerson Hancock (6yrs under control)

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  6. There going to sign Pete,no need for that post Mr Mack.

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  7. I agree. This is the offseason for an Alonso extension. Definitely a Massive contract that will make him the highest paid first baseman

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  8. I'm OK with signing Pete to a reasonable contract of not more than 5 years, otherwise let him go.

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  9. I prefer to let Pete show if his diminished #s are a sign of decline or merely an outlier.
    Wait until next Winter, let the market set his value, and outbid everyone else if we want to keep him.

    Hoskins has value in that he can play LF decently in addition to DH and 1B, but I'd prefer Justin Turner as DH + 3B insurance if the babies flop.

    Yesterday in the DR, Ronny played 3B and went 4-4 with a 2B abd 3B, but committed THREE Es. He's got work to do, and I'm glad he's using the DWL to do it.

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  10. Does anyone know what type of errors those were (Mauricio?) Throwing?

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  11. As far as Pete goes, it would be a shame if they just let him walk, but it would also be a shame if Boras held out to make him the highest paid guy in the league. As I posted the other day, the Freeman contract should be the absolute ceiling.

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