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12/23/23

Tom Brennan - Updated Retrospective on Mets 2013 Draft

  



I thought it might be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5, how they panned out, and which of them (and those from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

I thought I’d start at 2012 and work forward towards 2022 from there, a year at a time.

Today?  The Mets' 2013 Draft 

1st Round - Dominic Smith - two years ago, I wrote that the "Jury is still out on whether Smith was a good first round pick or not.  If he reverts to 2020 form, absolutely.  If not, he reverts to Lucas Duda.  Fangraphs expects him to do modestly better in 2022 than he did in 2021; let's hope for Smith's sake, he does even better."

Well, he didn't get better.  738 at bats the past 2 seasons, just 63 RBIs.

A lot of at bats for a mediocre player with a career 1.1 WAR.

Conclusion: 

Busted first round pick.

2nd Round - Andrew Church - he'd struggle, show promise, struggle some more, show promise...but the righty hurler never made the majors.  When he went 7-4, 2.92 in A ball in 2016, I thought he was on his way.  Ultimately, though?  30-33, 4.93 in minors, no inning in majors.

Bad pick.

3rd Round - Ivan Wilson - the Mets opted to go with a stud athlete, hoping they could fix the strikeout hole in his swing.  They couldn't.  Athletic, but at draft time, I read he had contact issues.  I wonder if that deficiency was sufficiently taken into account by the Mets' drafting experts.  His last season in low A, he hit .197 with 80 Ks in 236 PAs.

Bad pick.

3rd Round - Casey Meisner - he got traded away by the Mets.  After showing some promise in the minors, especially his 13-5, 2.45 season in 2015, he had a rough 2019.  Hasn't played since in the minors.

Bad pick.

4th Round - LJ Mazzilli - What were they thinking?  Fine if you draft him, but maybe do so in the 7th to 10th round, not in the 4th round. Minors career ended in 2018, at .265. 

Bad pick for round 4.  If he was selected in rounds 8 thru 10, that would have been OK.

5th Round - Jared King - another failed pick - career .240 , less than a HR every 100 ABs in the minors.  Not sure what they expected from this 5th round pick - I'd have drafted power instead, or another arm.

Typically mediocre pick.

Miserable Mets selection effort, results-wise, on rounds 1 thru 5.

They improved in Rounds 10 thru 12, nabbing a trio of major leaguers.

Luis Guillorme, Tylor Bashlor, and a wise pick in round 12 with Jeff McNeil.

Luis has been a decent fill in, but is not at all a big run producer, despite being a glove wizard; he has put up a modest 2.9 career WAR. 

Bashlor failed, ultimately, at 0-6, 5.78. 

McNeil thankfully has won a batting title and compiled 19.2 WAR. 

Drafting Jeff McNeil almost made it a decent draft, but it was still a weak draft overall.

Next up?  2014.


14 comments:

  1. Jeff and Tomas Nido checked in on my daily story on Facebook

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  2. Tell Jeff I hope he has a great 2024 season. He was clearly the highlight of the Mets 2013 draft and also a big highlight in their 2022 season. It looked like he was coming on in the end of 2023 so this should be a good year for him.

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    1. Jeff is very happy being a Met and Will play 2024 where needed

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  3. Paul, good word there.

    Recycling back for a second to a prior article, Jeff McNeil at the same age (in 2016?) as Rhylan Thomas was during the 2023 season, had a strong season in A and AA. Rhylan Thomas in 2023 was statistically (slash line) significantly better than McNeil put up then. And won the organization's oufiled fielding award. Others may not think Thomas will amount to something. I think he will. Merry Christmas to Jeff and Rhylan, and I hope Jeff is enjoying his new wheels.

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  4. Mack, nice.

    Please let Jeff know a .300+ season awaits him.


    And I hope I am the burr in Nido's shoe. He needs to hit better. There's still time.

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  5. Bashlor failed to pan out, but as a power arm, I liked that pick.

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  6. The Baseball Prospectus top 10:

    Jett Williams, SS/OF
    Drew Gilbert, OF
    Luisangel Acuña, SS/2B
    Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF
    Christian Scott, RHP
    Marco Vargas, IF
    Jeremy Rodriguez, SS
    Ronny Mauricio, IF
    Colin Houck, IF
    Mike Vasil, RHP

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  7. Gus, that is a very interesting list, for who is in it (e.g., Clifford, J Rod) and who is not (Parada).

    I wonder if Scott will be > Hamel.

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  8. Mack, I had to look up Matt Durkin, I must confess. It was prior to my Macks Mets days by a decade.

    2nd rounder, 2004. Nice of him to check in with you.

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  9. In the latest reminder of Mets drafting futility:

    Interesting to see that Isaiah Kiner-Falefa just signed a 2 year, $15 million deal with the Blue Jays. You don't pay that sort of $$ for a bum.

    He was drafted in the 4th round of 2013, several selcetions AFTER the foolish Lee Mazzilli Jr pick. He's had a nice MLB career with over 2000 plate appearances. Mazzilli? Boy his Dad was something, huh?

    I remember when LJ was drafted, thinking, "yeah, but is he any good?" Ten years later, the answer is a clear NO.

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