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12/26/23

Tom Brennan: Updated Retrospective on Mets’ 2015 Draft

 


Hope you all had a wonderful, calorie-filled Christmas.  

Seems Santa isn't the only one making the rounds...

I've been hearing that several folks, including my nephew and his wife, got a visit from the COVID Fairy (no, not Anthony Fauci, from the bug).  We stopped by another relative's home and 2 were sick upstairs and others were hacking downstairs.  So please be aware, and if someone is hacking near you, step out of the batter's box and call a time out.

Continuing my updated retrospective Mets draft series…I thought it would be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5 in years 2005 through 2021, how those draftees panned out, and which of them (and which from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

I've been doing these retrospectives a year at a time.

Today?  

The Mets' 2015 Draft.

Gosh, the first 5 rounds of 2015's draft were DREADFUL in terms of the real purpose of drafts, which is to help the mother ship Mets at some point!

Round 1 - pass!  We didn't get to play in any reindeer games.

The prior two years' 1st round grabs were Dom Smith and Michael Conforto, but you need a first round pick to get 1st round quality.  

The Mets didn't keep theirs. The loss of this one? 

It was due to them getting David Wright's buddy Michael Cuddyer from Colorado, who hit .330+ in two straight years in hitters' paradise Colorado, but just .259 in his one (final) Mets season, as an achy mid-30s vet.  

The aging Cuddyer hit an inflated .322 in games played in Coors Field, but .275 everywhere else.  I wonder if the Wilpons grasped the Coors Effect?  Cuddyer was a very rare bird...skiiped the 2nd year of his 2 year Mets deal and retred after his fading year # 1.

But....losing that first round pick for Cuddyer? 

Dumb…de…dumb…dumb.

I wonder if they might have grabbed 24th overall Walker Buehler with that pick if they had skipped signing Cuddyer and kept the selection. Before losing 2022 and 2023 to TJS, Walker was 46-16, and Buehler is returning to the Dodgers for 2024.

Round 2 - Desmond Lindsay - he never got it going when he wasn't hurt - and he was hurt an awful lot.  Hit about .175 in roughly 110 at bats in 2019 and 2021.  Used up all his sick days. 

873 minor league ABs, 302 Ks.

Nice try.  But a terrible pick.

Round 3 - Max Wotell - briefly showed promise, then got hurt. 3-6, 6.81 in 74 minor league innings.  Interestingly, he was part of the Mets' trade to acquire Jay Bruce. Since the Mets couldn't keep this Max, they made up for it a bit by signing Max Scherzer.

Bust pick, that the Mets at least got some value for via trade

Round 4 - David Thompson - he was simply injured too often, hampering any effort to build on early minors success.  A career .507 slug % and a fine RBI guy - he knocked in 95 in just 116 games in 2016.  But just 1,823 at bats in total from 2015-21, and only 218 games from 2017 thru 2021.  But there are a lot of "what-if" guys who never make it.  

Health matters.  His baseball health was lousy.

Not a terrible pick for the 4th round. But not a successful one, either.  

Ultimately, if a 4th rounder fails to make it, I guess the pick is a bust.

Round 5 - Tom Szapucki - drafted out of Fragile High School, he turned out to be more fragile than glass. Briefly, in the majors with SFG, the Szapper looked a tad promising. End result?

Bust pick. 

He did, however, help the Mets trade for Darin Ruf

OK, THAT MAKES THE SZAPPER A DOUBLE BUST PICK.

After Round 5?  Pat Mazeika went in the 8th round, and picked the right position, catcher, to make it to the big leagues in a marginal way. 

For a selection as low as the 8th round, the choice of Patty Lad was (I guess) a decent pick. 

A round later, Kevin Kaczmarski was drafted.  A decent hitter with limited power, akin to Eric Campbell, KK only had a walk in 5 plate appearances in the majors.  Years of minor league effort, just one walk, no hits.  Worth it?  I dunno.  You'd have to ask him.

While many minor league 9th rounders never make it, going 0-4 with a walk in your career is not a quality pick.

2015 was simply a dreadful draft year, stifled by injuries.  

“Urine-poor.”  

Or something more colloquial in that regard.

When it comes to draft picks, it certainly seems the Mets over the years have had more busts than a lengthy burlesque show.

2016?  

My next article, friends. 

Coming soon to a web page near you.


BUT BEFORE I GO...MINOR NEWS FLASH!

On Christmas, joyous news came! The Mets inked Chad Smith to a minor league deal.  

In his MLB career, he is 1-3, 7.11 in 31 innings.  

Pitched poorly in AAA this season, too, so basically, this signing seems to be non-news. 

Rumor has it he considered Miami, but he heard about the problem Florida had with Hanging Chads in the 2000 presidential election and decided another state made more sense. 

Please assume he is a minor league piece only unless he experiences some sort of significant upgrade.  

Numbers over time paint a picture.  He paints, it seems, like Hunter Biden.

23 comments:

  1. Chad Smith, in 35 innings in AAA PCL in 2023, walked 30 and allowed 33 runs. Not Greg Maddux numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  2. If there's a plan I'm not getting it and certainly not holding my breath waiting for the next scrub with a 6+ ERA like really?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gary, maybe the unspoken goal after not getting Yamamoto will be to get under the lux cap in 2024, which seems impossible, as the projected Mets payroll for cap purposes, as per Spotrac, is $298 million, or $60 million over the reset level.

    The Mets paid $101 million in taxes and surcharges in 2023, by far the all time record. A reset would be nice, even for a Steve Cohen.

    Also beneficial would be getting under $40 million over the threshold. Why "Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tom I’m with Gary. If Stearns isn’t signing any high dollar FA’s and the goal is to get under the Lux Cap and play the kids in 2024 why aren’t we trading Pete. The way this team is being constructed we will suck with or without Pete. Bring back two top prospects and keep building the youth. If Stearns puts a 💩 team on the field and we don’t get under the Lux Tax what’s the point. Signing all these hot garbage and reclamation project FA’s is something a rebuilding team does. Yet we’re still over the Lux Tax. I don’t mind having a shitty team for a year if there is a purpose. I’ve yet to see the purpose.

      Delete
  4. It will be a busy spring weeding this garden full of cast-offs. Maybe there will be a gem buried in there - time will tell. Meanwhile, the NL East gets stronger.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dreadfully draft

    I really was excited when the Mets chose Thompson. Big school numbers

    Actually heard from Patrick yesterday on Christmas day

    ReplyDelete
  6. The Mets sit at $283MM, according to Sportrac. I wrote last week how they can get under the $237MM that resets the tax and allows them to go after Soto, Burnes and Fried with the
    Money coming off the books.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Gus, the question is, if they did go under the cap in 2024, and reset, would they get the guys they'd really want?

    The Mets would have gotten Yamamoto this season if the Mets were the sexy first choice team, but they aren't.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gus, though, to your point, Spotrac has an estimate of $22 million for Alonso for 2023, so if you traded him for a few elite (i.e., better than Luisangel) prospects, you'd save $20 million in payroll right there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only if you signed a guy under $3 mil to replace him.
      To paraphrase Casey, "You gotta have a first baseman or you'll have a lot of infield hits".🙃

      Delete
    2. If you want

      2024 Vientos/Baty

      2025 One of the two guys they got for one of the aging SP last season

      Delete
  9. Mack, good about Mazeika.

    Maybe he can get back to the big leagues somewhere.

    I noticed he has 63 days of MLB service time, enough to be in the MLB pension plan, albeit in a small way. This article is informative in that regard:

    https://awmcap.com/blog/mlb-service-time#:~:text=While%20a%20full%20pension%20is,pension%20value%20attached%20to%20them.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Kevin Parada is not in Baseball America's top 10 Mets any longer. Anyone know where he is ranked by them?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Bill, good one. Elliot Maddox probably could have pitched better.

    Funny, I just looked up Elliot...as a Met in 1978-80, he stole 6 bases and was gunned down 22 times. And in 1978 and 1980 he stole 3 bases an was nailed 20 times. WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?

    Good thing he made it up with power. Well, maybe not. He had just 7 HRs in 1200 Mets plate appearances. No speed...no power...sounds like a NY Met to me.

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  12. Bill, I think Vientos could be a good first baseman in 2024 - but he won't be Pete.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, he won't. But I'm not 100% sure that Pete will be Pete in future years.
      That's why I'd wait until the end of the season before deciding if his .217 is outlier or slippery slope. We can certainly outbid everyone else if we re-sign him then.

      No, Vientos is not Pete, but if Pete flops and we only get a draft pick for him, we can use the money for Soto.

      Do Mark + Soto= Pete?

      Delete
  13. The Mets are better with Alonso, I accept that. But, how much better? All in all, I prefer Alonso. But, just like we prefer Alonso, so does everyone else and that’s why he is the one with the value. And then, his upcoming free agency will leave the Mets holding a bag of crap. I can’t have that. Whispers have his demands being outrageous, but only the Mets really know.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Gus, which team would a) be willing to take Alonso and b) give the Mets the most return? Who would you want from that team if you were the GM?

    I'd prefer him to be out of the NL if possible, especially the NL East.

    ReplyDelete
  15. These draft chats are as nteresting as Mack’s draft lists. Snore

    ReplyDelete
  16. Amazin Z, I sure hope we soon see the shape of 2024. But the Scherzer, Verlander, Marte signings were as expensive as Elon Musk rocket launches and just as "successful." Slow is OK, if there is a viable plan. What is it? Hopefully Stearns knows.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous, I know readers like you tend to suffer from insomnia, so I have several more sleeping pills in this series coming right up. Read each, take a nap, feel refreshed.

    ReplyDelete