Tom Brennan: Why Not a Killer Pen, & Use Megill, Peterson, Butto, Joey, & Vasil as Back-End Starters?

I even got "Dynamo Dom" Hamel in this article.

Warren Spahn may have averaged 280 innings a season for a stretch of nearly 2 decades, but starters today no longer throw 300 innings.

Or, for that matter, 200 innings. (Just 5 MLB starters in fact reached 200 IP; those 5 averaged just 205 IP).

Safe to say that many rotation starters these days don't throw 150 innings.

Mets? 

Workhorse Kodai Senga in 2023 threw 166 innings (40th highest in the majors, but had he thrown 180 innings, just 14 more, he'd have been tied for 24th most). 

He was followed by towering Tylor Megill at 126 innings.

Starters? In restaurants, they're called appetizers.

Those are usually consumed in a flash.  So are many starters' starts.

If that is the case, why not seek a killer pen instead, and go entirely with in-house starters?

Let the in-house starters try to keep you in the game for 5 innings, followed by a pen party, with a pen led by these 6?

Diaz, Hader, Ottavino, Robertson, Raley, and Smith?

Can we assume for a moment (humor me, please) that we get some reasonable durability out of Senga, Quintana and Severino?

And now you have the decent back end arm of Adrian Houser, too.  That's 4 starters. and likely 550 innings or so covered.

My take beyond that?  

I like Megill for 5 innings; "4-0 in 2023" Joey for 6 innings; Peterson (once healed) for 5-6 innings.  

(When they don't start, they can replicate swing man Trevor Williams and relieve.)

I am not as convinced about Senor Butto, but he pleasantly surprised me in 2023, and maybe he will do so again in 2024.

(Note: MLB Trade Rumors estimates Hader at a lofty 6 years, $110 million, with Texas seemingly the most interested.  If not him, what about 34 year old free agent reliever Hector Neris, who was excellent in 2023?  

Also, Adam Ottavino opted out from the Mets after the season because of Buck/Billy turmoil, lack of clarity on Mets' plans for 2024 success, and Stearns' lack of guarantees on not trading him mid-season, so I am guessing Ottavino may be reluctant to sign up with my grand plan. 

Which brings me to...

Mike Vasil??  

Yeah, I know Vasil's 5.30 ERA in AAA last year was unsightly, but keep in mind they used the tighter computerized strike zone in 2023 in AAA.  

Here's an example of how it affected him.  

Vasil walked just 8 batters in 51 AA innings in 2023.

But Vasil walked 38 in 73 innings in AAA in 2023. 

Was it the tighter AAA robot zone that caused the spike in walks?  Probably.  In fact, most likely.

Yes, Vasil's AAA ERA was fairly ugly, but it is an AVERAGE. Its ugliness was due in large part to two very bad outings in early September, in which he went 6.2 innings and allowed 11 earned runs.  

Without those 2 stinkers, his AAA ERA was a decent 4.36, in a league where (undoubtedly due to the robot zone) ERAs were very high.  

In fact, the median team ERA in the International League in "robot 2023" was a PCL-like 5.08, and the median walks per 9 innings were 4.76. 

The year prior, when non-robot umps called balls and strikes, pitchers fared much better: the median team ERA was a far lower 4.60, and the median walks per 9 were just 3.98.

Last I checked, while some major league umps may be real stiffs, they are human, not robots. 

Right after the duo of early September stinkers, Vasil had his final 2 FINE outings of 2023, in which he allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs in 10 innings while fanning EIGHTEEN.  

Bums don't fan 18 in 10 innings, folks.  Agreed?

SO...why shouldn't Mike Vasil be ready to be a decent, cheap starter in the big leagues fairly soon?  Say, by June? 

The day after writing this about Vasil, I saw Anthony DiComo write this about "the" Mets prospect to watch:

Mets: RHP Mike Vasil
For a team in need of all the pitching help it can get, Vasil (Mets' No. 9 prospect per MLB Pipeline) is of particular interest. 

The organization’s eighth-round Draft pick in 2021, Vasil thrived in his first taste of the upper Minors last season, producing a 3.71 ERA over 10 starts at Double-A Binghamton. 

Although Vasil struggled a bit following a midseason promotion to Triple-A Syracuse, he still profiles as the pitching prospect most likely to make a significant impact with the big league club in 2024. 

With a strong spring, he could position himself to debut during the first half of the season.

Great minds think alike (well, his mind seems great, anyway).

Continuing on with my article:

Dom Hamel may not be far behind - consider what this intrepid reporter breathlessly reported to you in late September:

Against the hard-hitting Somerset Yanks in the AA playoffs, Hamel went 7.2 innings, allowed 3 hits, no runs, and recorded 8 Ks. 

That was after his prior 3 starts, in which he threw 14 scoreless and fanned 24. 

Brilliant 4 game stretch. 

THAT is nasty late season pitching in AA by Hamel.

Of course, pudding lovers are fairly unanimous that Christian Scott had a My-T-Fine season in 2023, even better than that of Hamel.

And Joander Suarez had a miniscule 1.98 ERA from July to season's end, AND fanned many...137 in 108 innings last season....

As my friend Rodney tells me, Suarez seems to get no respect, no respect at all.

So, to recap:

Using in-house starters only would accomplish one big thing: 

SAVE LARGE CARGO SHIPS FULL OF MOOLAH BOOLAH!

Use the unspent dough not on big ticket starters, but instead on building a killer pen, by adding Hader, Robertson, AND Ottavino.

Then let's fervently hope that Nate the Great Lavender and Mighty Tall Paul Gervase emerge from the minors to give them two more solid pen arms in 2024, to join a few of the other recently acquired but unnamed-here relievers (you can look their names up if so inclined, in Reese's fine article earlier today) who have pitched in the majors already with varying degrees of competence.

What, you ask, did lefty Nate and righty Paul combine to do in minors relief in 2023?  

Killed it, frankly, I'd say - but you be the judge:

182 Ks in 111 IP ("sit down, sucker"), 2.50 ERA, 8-5, 14 saves.

So...

Why not roll with this "in-house starters with a killer pen" plan, rather than paying exorbitant multiple millions for veteran starters who might reach their "old-guys-get-hurt expiration date" before the end of spring training, which Quintana almost did in 2023 and Cookie and (to a lesser degree) Justin pretty much did?  

Heck, look at time lost due to health woes of former Mets Jakey Breaky and Max (oh, my aching back!) Scherzer. 

When it comes to my ballplayers? 

I prefer the young and agile... 

....to the old and fragile.

As I see it...Vets? 

They belong in Animal Hospitals. Woof Woof. (OR "RUF RUF")

If you enjoyed this message, bark loudly.  But...wish as you might, I'm not quite done.

Apparently, the Mets' post-Yama focus is not on budget buster starters with high risk of failure, an area of failure in which the Mets tend to specialize.

So, instead thinking shorter and cheaper, the Post reported that the Mets have real interest in a guy who did THIS in the second half of 2023:

2-10, 7.13, 24 HRs allowed in 72 innings. 

Repeat after me: AH-OO-GAH!

"WHO..ON..EARTH..IS..THAT?" is what I guess you're thinking. 

That "WHO?" is Lucas Giolito, whose fastball, I read, had slowed a bit last year and who had to deal with the distractions of getting divorced last year and being traded twice, too, to the Angels and Guardians, with whom he was 2-9, ERA around 7.00.

He did have a solid first half of season, but still allowed a whopping 41 HRs in 2023 and was 3-11, 6.07 in road games in 2023 (even though over his career, he is a better road than home pitcher).  He has allowed 166 HRs in his career in 1,013 innings, quite a high rate.

He has thrown very little in his career in Queens. But the innings he did throw in Queens weren't pretty.

In 7.1 career innings in Citifield, his ERA is 14.73 with 5 HRs allowed.  Not encouraging.  

If they sign him, should they move the fences back to the original Citifield dimensions?  That would help hold down the HRs quite a bit.

Maybe a fresh start in Queens would revive him. Maybe. Sometimes, players rebound.  If the Mets do sign him, hopefully it would be at reasonable cost and just one year.

If not, might the Mets not be better off rushing Mike Vasil a bit?  Maybe.  

Or using Butto as a starter?  Perhaps.

Or 4-0, 2.89 Joey?  Uhh, yeah.

Or...passing on the towering Gio and looking elsewhere at the starter free agent lesser-tier market?  We'll see what Mr. Stearns has up his sleeves.

P.S. Let's not forget Bryce Montes de Oca, throwing perhaps the nastiest pitch in baseball history with his two foot reverse break on a 102 MPH fastball, viewable on Tik Tok, which I don't use.  Mr. Nasty may be ready again in mid-2024.