I talked "back in the day" with a former college and baseball manager. He told me that the most talented pitchers at that level ALWAYS are groomed to be starters.
And their starters become relievers when they prove they can't go three times around the lineup without blowing up.
This was back when starters averaged over seven innings an outing. Today's coddled rotations are pulled way before this so that "third time around" may be more like a "respectable showing in the third time around".
Then and only then are when relievers are born, first starting with who throws faster. That player starts to be groomed as a future closer.
Reese Kaplan said in an earlier post that if the Mets spend more, they will wind up paying $2.10 for every dollar spent.
Ask yourself this... would Steve Cohen pay $2.10 per share for a stock worth $1.00 a share?
In my opinion, the only chance this team will have any degree of success in 2024 is to have multiple relievers that can go more than one inning.
The projected rotation will seldom go seven innings.
The secret of the 2024 pen is in current starters and prospect relievers like Nate Lavender.
That's just the fact, Jack.
You know my prospect rating system.
RED PROSPECTS are players I expect to do major time in the majors.
BLUE PROSPECTS are on the cusp and could develop some day into major league players.
The rest of the minor leaguers are steak knives.
I current have none classified as red.
I do have six as blue and their projected 2024 levels should be:
AAA/MLB - Nate Lavender
AA/AAA - Wilkin Ramos
AA/AAA - Paul Gervase
AAA - Daniel Juarez
AA - Dylan Tebrake
A/A+ - Eli Ankeney
de Oca?
ReplyDeleteMcLean!?
McGloughlin?
All three have talent
DeleteOca has the heater but so far he can't hit the barn consistently
I am especially intrigued with McLean but I think his future is with a bat in his hands
de Oca wasn't that great before injury, so he first has to prove he's fully healthy and then has to improve significantly before I'd bank on him as being part of the solution.
ReplyDeleteI do endorse the idea of a long hard look at Lavender.
Mack, good points.
ReplyDeleteI think Lavender and Gervase May end up being Redmen.
I wonder if Joander Suarez gets converted to relief?
On the topic of relievers…
I looked up reliever Phil Bickford in Citifield, career.
.129/.250/.194 in 73 plate appearances in Citifield in his career. Are those stats right?
I too wonder about Suarez
DeleteFirst needs to start off this season (at the same level) and prove last year's ending isn't a fluke
My brother always says, “Where (besides Diaz) are the Mets’ 100 MPG guys?
ReplyDeleteMontas de Oca but needs to live in the pitcher's lab first
DeleteFrom FanGraphs’ prospects writeup last May:
Delete“The good news is that Montes de Oca’s stuff is good enough to do damage even when he’s not locating. He sits in the upper 90s, and his fastball has big tailing movement and pairs nicely with the glove-side length of his slider, which is how he most often finishes hitters. As ugly as his delivery is, it helps make hitters uncomfortable, and BMdO was missing a ton of upper-level bats last year.”
He may not be elite because of his control, but my point is that he is worth consideration. 3.1 MLB innings, 6 K’s, only 2 BB’s, only a 10.80 ERA…. Ouch! I think the kid should be in the conversation, and in the lab.
I started watching clip of fastest pitch by each team in 2023. They got to the Pirates…who was clocked at 101 MPH? COLIN HOLDERMAN!
ReplyDeleteI hated that trade but really hated the Ruf trade. I think the Mets due to all their media coverage have extremely thin skin. Cohen doesn’t want anyone to say anything bad about him, and none of us do. He needs to let Stearns do his job laissez-faire. The Baez deal was along those lines. One reliever isn’t going to sink the ship, but the mindset of throwing talent away to merely pug a hole needs to stop.
DeleteMack, I am intrigued by what Oka will be when he gets back. Watching videos of some of the balls he threw they moved so incredibly much. I wonder about the stress on his elbow from those, and if they are going to work carefully with him to throw straighter, more stress-free pitches. Maybe his control will improve a lot because of that, I still can’t forget that one pitch on video where he threw the ball 102 miles an hour and it cut 2 feet towards the right hand batter. It just looked unnatural. It certainly looked unhittable. But if you threw like that, you’re going to throw a lot of balls out of the strikes zone . One of the many storylines of 2024.
ReplyDeleteCould be the next Herb Score.ot Herb the Plumber
DeleteTom, is it so bad to not throw straight? It is the best outcome, right? Remember Doug Sisk? He walked EVERYBODY, but was effective because no one got hits. Sid Fernandez? Him too! And other guys later. Familia had his issues with control as did the reliever from Miami. I will take unhittable all day long and live with the three or four bad outings a year. The key is to let him start innings and if he doesn’t have it, get him out of there. I’d love to have him!
ReplyDeleteThat greatest ALL TIME closer Rivera The Yank never through straight, did he?
DeleteMack, I have to disagree on McLean. I see him with the bat like an Ivan Wilson. Perhaps.
ReplyDeleteWhy? In COLLEGE, he fanned 214 times in 616 at bats. And 57 times in 153 at bats in 2023 college. Then fanned in 11 of his 24 plate appearances with Mets minors in 2023. Not sure if that can be fixed.
And he is raw as a pitcher. College and pro ball, just 61 innings. Mediocre stats, and hopefully they can refine him into a dangerous pitcher.
So
DeleteCan't hit
Can't pitch
Is that why the Mets drafted him?
Tom, I agree with Mack. The kid has a high octane heater at 98. He just needs to focus on pitching more than he has. Like all kids, he wants to do both and the Mets are allowing that. At some point, reality will set in. He strikes out alot as a hitter, but if he ever hits it…. LOL
DeleteMack, how come your blue guys are painted red.
ReplyDeleteI use red for all names
ReplyDeleteDidn't we trade the GOAT because of wildness for a SS and then moved him to 3rd. Dumb with this team started along time ago and we really need to change that. I remember being at a game in Shea with Ryan on the mound April 18 1970 probably the best game I ever saw pitched and I was at Bunning's perfect game Fathers day in 64'. His line was 9 innings one hit (a Denny Doyle 23 hopper up the middle to lead off) and 15 k's and I don't know if you can be more dominant than that AND we beat Bunning 7-0. Ahh the old days and I don't think there was even a thought of taking him out in 6th LOL.
ReplyDeleteSix innings is like six inches. The average.
DeleteA sidebar to that story was I remember when I first saw Fregosi on the field and thought OMG he's 29? Looked more like 39 and he played like it was an old timers day game.
ReplyDeleteGus, I am 100% rooting for Oca. My thought was that 102 MPH "screwball", essentially...I just wonder how much torque that put on his elbow. It moved 24" towards the righty hitter on that 102 MPH pitch. If you haven't seen it, you can find it on You tube. It moved like a whiffle ball.
ReplyDelete