Paul Articulates – The Allure of 2025

Well, folks it is mid-January today and we have spent three and a half months now talking about the Mets off-season.  The period evolved from the great hope of what a “competitive” team in 2024 would look like to the realization that managing the competitive balance tax is the dominant scenario.

So as the media pundits get off the bandwagon for creating rumors about Mets interest in whatever names are next on the list of available stars, the dialogue has softened to acknowledge that 2024 will really just be the setup for a hopeful 2025 season.  That set-up work will include making decisions on getting Pete Alonso signed for a new multi-year contract, final exams for the first wave of Baby Mets, and MLB testing for a handful of promising prospect pitchers (P3s) to see how they handle batters of major league caliber.

The off-season has certainly shaped up better for some teams than the Mets.  It is hard to bridge the gap from today’s paper roster of the Mets to that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves, or even our cross-town rivals in the AL.  So if it is hard to imagine success in 2024, then it is much easier to project a rosy 2025 because so many things can happen from now until then.

I started to get caught up in the allure of a magical 2025 season, dreaming of matured Baby Mets performing like MLB all-stars; continued strong seasons from the veterans we have come to count on like Lindor, Nimmo, and McNeil; and the eventual agreement between the Mets and Alonso.  

Then I came back down to earth.  Having managed risk in a business environment for many years, I started to think through all the good things that had to happen to have a magical 2025 season and what the probability of those occurrences would be.  Let’s take a look at what needs to happen.

The Baby Mets

• Francisco Alvarez showed flashes of brilliance last season.  For a while at the beginning of 2023 he was statistically among the top defensive catchers in MLB and was slugging .514 before the all-star break.  He got a little too aggressive with his throws and his swings and finished the season with a .209 average and 13 errors behind the plate.  To become the star we all hope he will be, he needs to show greater maturity and composure on offense and defense.  I think this is likely, as he has shown to be a fast learner with other skills on his baseball journey.  Probability: High
• Brett Baty showed some very promising moments early in his call-up year but regressed into contact issues as pitchers figured out where he had holes in his swing.  This became a mental drain and his fielding suffered as well, prompting a several week demotion to the minors.  He still has not been the same player at the MLB level.  The biggest part of it is his long swing, which hopefully has been the focus of his off-season work so that middle-in fastball doesn’t miss his bat anymore.  With his power stroke and a new ability to contact the ball, things could get back on track and I think his fielding will follow.  This is the season that he will determine his future in New York.  Probability: Medium
• Ronny Mauricio has looked great in the Dominican Winter League last year and this year, the 2023 spring training, the 2023 minor league season, and a brief call-up to MLB at the end of 2023.  Of course that was all crushed by his knee injury this winter, and we will not likely see him in 2024.  That pushes out his “prove it” time to the following season while others vie for playing time that would have been his.  By the time he comes back this may look like a very different team.
• Mark Vientos made his mark in the minors with his bat, and despite a frustrating early call-up where he did not get much playing time to prove himself, he finally did get to play more regularly at the end of 2023 and showed that his skills could translate to MLB.  Unfortunately, he has not impressed with the glove at any position and that limits his possibilities with the MLB club.  He is going to have to hit for average and with power to become a factor for the team in 2024.  Probability: Low

The Current Stars

• Pete Alonso has now agreed to a $20.5M salary for 2024.  Maybe that is good news because he could have gotten $22M in arbitration.  Maybe that’s bad news because he still had time to negotiate and agree upon a multi-year extension before his final season of team control.  What it definitely says is that Pete wants to test the FA market at the end of this season, so for a team that needs his power in 2025 it is going to cost a lot of money.  And by the way, there are several teams that are willing to spend a lot of money as seen by this off-season’s luxury market.  Alonso means a lot to the clubhouse as well as the offensive performance on the field.  He needs to be with the 2025 team.  Probability: Medium
• Jeff McNeil has shown the versatility to play many positions very well at a MLB level.  He is also one of the top bat-to-ball guys in the league and when he’s not tinkering with his swing he is capable of winning a batting title as proven in 2022.  Somehow, this doesn’t seem to translate into “untouchability”, as I still feel like he could be traded at the deadline for pitching prospects if the team is in a horrible 2024 rut due to underperformance.  A successful 2025 team needs his offensive production and defensive versatility.  Probability: Medium

The Future Stars

• Call them the “infant Mets” so they are not confused with the Baby Mets.  They are a handful of uber-talented prospects coming up through the system that had impressive minor league seasons last year.  Some of them need to fill holes in the 2025 team that are left by unfulfilled probabilities above, veterans traded, free agents leaving for opportunity, or the inevitable injury.  Their readiness to perform at a high level in 2025 is tough to judge.  They could be like the Braves’ Michael Harris who went from AA to MLB star in a season, or they could be like any of the Baby Mets that have shown the need for extended time at the MLB level to reach desired performance.  The only time I can remember that happening in the Mets organization was some guy named Gooden.  Probability: Low

I can go on, but by now you are probably having the second thoughts about 2025 that I am.  To achieve success in that season, the team needs most/all of the above scenarios to work out.  Success is likely if you only have a few high and a few medium probabilities, but if you have to string together many “medium” it becomes “low” that they will all be realized.  String together many mediums and a few lows, and you get the probability of success for our 2025 season: low.