Paul Articulates - Projected WAR has these Mets surprising me

Recent interviews with David Stearns have quoted him saying that he expects the 2024 Mets to be competing for a playoff berth.  I know this was the team’s mantra heading into the off-season after a dreadful 2023 season, but as you have heard many times during this very long winter, there have been no big free agent signings to speak of that would repair the many areas this team failed last year.

We know that every team opens spring training with the optimism that “this could be the year’, but only a handful of teams come in with the power lineups that could allow them to stake a claim.  This year’s Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and maybe the Yankees can put a paper argument together based on the reputation and statistics of their current rosters.  

Then there is that next tier of clubs that have enough horses that allow them to play the “what if” game.  “What if our top players turned in career seasons”; and “If everyone stays healthy”; and “If our top prospect plays as expected”.  That can happen sometimes, as the Diamondbacks and Phillies will attest to with World Series berths in the last two years.

Can this happen with the Mets?  Most of us would shake our heads while staring at the ground.  We let go several big names at the trade deadline in 2023, our off-season has not added any game-changers, and the jury is still out on all of our young talent – none of which has put a consistent MLB season together yet.

One could argue that there are several players that have the skills to compete, but is it really enough?  2022 gave us tremendous hope before crashing back to earth following the Marte injury, but 2023 left us doubting just about everyone.  As I wrestled with this dilemma in my head (as any Met fan does before a season starts), I decided to go to the numbers.  Fangraphs puts together projections for the coming year’s WAR for every rostered player on MLB teams.  

I would be fascinated to delve into those algorithms, but for the moment I have to accept the results as a non-emotional way to look at the teams.  Yes, they are mathematical models based upon statistics that can’t take into account the every day grind of a 162-game season, but this is the best crystal ball we have.

I looked at Fangraphs’ projected 2024 WAR for the projected starters in the published depth chart of every National League team, figuring that if the Mets could break the top ten, they would have a shot.  I was shocked at the result – they were third!  Here’s the table:

The Braves and Dodgers are known powerhouses.  The Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all have recent playoff experience.  Most of us expected those teams to be on top.  The Mets, on the other hand were a surprise to me.  This looks more like where I would have ranked them after the 2022 season than today.  But when you look at the core, it is the same team.  They have just lowered our expectations significantly with last year’s underperformance and injuries.

Francisco Lindor has been very steady for the Mets, and last year’s Sliver Slugger award was no fluke.  He had a fairly weak start with the bat last year which I don’t expect to see again, so he should put up better numbers in 2024.

Pete Alonso has established himself as one of the top power hitters in the league.  Last year he tried to do too much too early after getting hurt and it really tanked his batting average.  I don’t see him as a hit-or-miss guy, so expect him to produce a much higher batting average this year (his walk year) to go with the big HR and RBI numbers we are used to.

Jeff McNeil also had a rough start to the season, but over the last three months of the year showed that he still has the bat-to-ball skills that will produce another .300+ batting average in 2024.

Brandon Nimmo gets better every year, but it somehow stays under the radar.  He is projected to produce 3.9 WAR next year, and I would not be surprised if he puts up better numbers if Bader is a healthy center fielder and Nimmo plays left.

Adding to my newfound optimism, Starling Marte looked like his “old self” in some Dominican Winter League games recently.  So playing the “what if” game, if Marte turns in a healthy 2024 playing like he did in 2022, then the Mets have five stellar veteran players that could all contribute.

Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos are wild cards in this deck.  Any of them have shown the promise and all of them have gotten a taste of the bigs so it won’t seem so new anymore.  If they play with confidence it adds to the strength of the veterans out there.  I fully expect a big season from Alvarez who gets better all the time.  

I have not mentioned pitching yet.  Pitching has been discussed often, and to summarize, there are few certainties on this staff.  They will be supported by a better defense this year, but there are few certainties among the starters.  The pen will be pieced together with some promising returnees, some reclamation projects, maybe some help from upcoming young arms, and the best closer in baseball.  It will take a lot to bridge to Diaz with a lead.  If that can be done, maybe David Stearns is right. 

 

What do you think?