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1/4/24

Paul Articulates – What if?


It is an understatement to say that this off-season has been frustratingly quiet for New York Mets fans.

After a flurry of administrative hires in the player development, scouting, and coaching staff areas, the Mets had a large roster gap to fill.  Their 40-man roster was down a dozen players at one point just before the rule 5 draft cutoff, and although it slowly trickled back up to the 38 players on the current roster, there were no blockbuster names added.  Instead, they were many minor acquisitions of players that will inevitably fight for a job in spring training.

We all know that Steve Cohen and David Stearns made a valiant effort to lure Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Queens and was not able to convince him this was a better fit than Los Angeles.   I can’t fault them for trying, as I have heard the numbers that were thrown out there in the negotiations and it far exceeded what any other Mets owner would have done over their history to obtain a key player.  But that deal was done, and in the aftermath there were no signings of the next best free agents on the list.  No DH, no starting pitcher, no big back-end reliever.

So that leads me to the title line.  What if plan A was go get Yamamoto and then fill the DH and bullpen to make a run at the playoffs in 2024; but plan B was to do nothing?

Nothing?  After developing tremendous credibility as a team that would do what it takes to win with the signing of Francisco Lindor in 2021?  After doubling down on big names like Baez, Marte, Scherzer, Verlander, and others and then making a big 101-win run in 2022?  Plan B is to do nothing and see what the prospects and the fringe signings can do for us?

There is a scenario where the Mets make do with what they have today – strong players in Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo; possibly strong players in a developing Alvarez and a hopefully healthy Marte; and then some positive turns.  Maybe there is a resurgence by Brett Baty; maybe DJ Stewart continues an upward trajectory from his strong finish last year.  Could Drew Gilbert and/or LuisAngel Acuna rise to readiness this spring?  What if Mike Vasil, Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel, Tylor Megill, and Drew Peterson become interchangeable parts in long relief and spot starts to give the team a chance to win on days when Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are not pitching?  Maybe Houser and Lucchesi become solid SP3 and SP4 with the help of the newly established pitching lab.

All these things could happen if the stars align, no one gets hurt, and team confidence blossoms with early success.

The cold, hard reality is that “could” doesn’t often turn into “did”.  The probability that all those above conditions come through is very low.  Without them, the probability that this team competes in the NL East and the National League playoff race is pretty low.  This is why so much has been written about what the Mets “should” do to acquire players this off-season.  This is why so many writers have speculated or embellished rumors that the team is interested in an available star.  Everyone knows that something needs to happen to boost the probability of success.  David Stearns cannot afford a “do nothing” gamble and hold any credibility as one of the best front office minds.


15 comments:

  1. Frankly I'm not going to be that upset if the Mets sign no big names

    I've become a "get the salaries in order" to set up a mega offer to my friend Juan Soto

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  2. I’ve always felt that way Mack. They cannot advertise it, but…

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    Replies
    1. They have the players in the system to fill up this roster by the beginning of the 2025 season

      Bring on some one year contract players and let's get this season over

      I'll work on Juan :)

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  3. Oooh boy,75 win season here we come.

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  4. I have forced my brain to accept that the Mets will NOT make any big moves this year and that I should be looking forward to watching the kids play in 2024.

    But I expect big signing after the 2024 season or Cohen / Stearn will lose all credibility.

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  5. This is Tom. I am pessimistic.

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    Replies
    1. Mets sign Harrison Bader

      Big time defensive CFer

      Perfect platoon with Stewart

      Like I said these are the kind of deals you will see this off season

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  6. Let’s get some bullpen help and not from the trash heap. The Braves GM is embarrassing Stearns. Big time !!

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  7. Where I agree and disagree.

    Agree

    It has been a sort of uneventful off season. True. Kind of felt like last Mets seasons under prior ownership, where the team gets many new players signed from other teams, instead of just one or two really good ones who could make a major impact with the parent club. I understand this though. It's because they want pretty much all levels of the franchise covered with players.

    The Mets absolutely have enough good hitting already here. True. I think McNeil and Alonso will have BA returns to their 2022 seasons. I don't want Pete Alonso turning into Dave Kingman and just thinking homeruns. He is a much better BA batter naturally then what we saw in 2023. He'll be fine.

    Disagree

    I get the feeling that everyone associated with these NY Mets (management, fans, sportswriters) want and expect starting pitchers like Quintana and Severino to just walk into ST, pickup their glove, walk out to the mound and be a very successful starting NYM pitcher again. To me, this is not carved in stone and we all will have to wait and see what happens. Smart team looks at other alternatives from within and attempts being creative with their ideas to upgrade the rotation. Like what? Turning really good and productive relievers with strong stuff and arms into young starters for up here. Guys like Nathan Lavender and J. Walker. The Mets need some new lefty starters badly. I think Joey Lucchesi and yes Drew Smith should get a good long ST look as well starting. The NYM need to dig in deep for the best solutions to the 2024 starting rotation. This could be how.

    Sometimes I don't really get catcher Omar Narvaez being here. I liked Tomas Nido Vicens better as the Mets backup catcher. He smiles more and hit well at AAA Syracuse in 2023. It's in him to do well batting here. I could see maybe newbie Kevin Parada ready too come up the second half of 2024 conversation too.

    I'd give Bing Rumpleponies' OF Drew Gilbert a ST invite as well. And don't forget this idea that has been batted around here since '23...Mark Vientos in LF. It just takes enough reps in LF with the fly balls and base hit linedrives. Learning how the ball comes off the bat. Knowing who on the other team tends to pull hit and such. Then the cut-off throws into the infield. I do think that Mark could do this.








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  8. Mets sign Harrison Bader, 1 yr, $10.5m. I love this signing, given the circimunstances. Fangraphs calls Bader’s CF defense “generational” and while he’s been a (just) slightly below average hitter over his career, his OPS vs lefties is .824. Moving Nimmo to LF, where he’s likely a somewhat above average defensive player, vs CF, where he’s probably bottom 25%, improves the OF dramatically. Bader probably an overpay @ $10.5m but they likely had to lure him away from a 2-yr deal elsewhere, and since we’re already so far over the cap in ‘24, that money is meaningless (likely to Cohen as well).

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  9. Nimmo
    Marte
    Lindor
    Alonso
    McNeil
    Alvarez
    Baty
    Vientos
    Bader

    If our Baby Mets come through this is a good lineup I think.

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  10. Hoskins,Kluber,Hand and call it an off-season?

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  11. I'd be more than fine with Mets additions of Japanese LSP Imanaga and then also INF/OF Justin Turner on a one year for insurance. Turner does hit for HR's and average as well. His being on this team could be very beneficial over the course of a full season.

    Second half hopeful call-ups could be: SP's MIke Vasil and perhaps Blake Tidwell if everything went well with each in MiLB first half. Then maybe C Kevin Parada could be close too. I would trade Omar Narváez. Boston does really need an established catcher like him. Maybe get some desirable AAA player back. Mets are sort of thin right now in MiLB outfield.

    The important thing here is that this team is not bad or so-so team at all. If everything breaks well for the players heading north right out ST, and some of the above MiLB players are being well groomed first half, this could be an honest Play Off competitive Mets '24 season.

    But do not just assume with the rotation heading north that the newer starting pitchers here now with recent arm injury/rehab concerns last season, will just walk-in and automatically be how they were and performed two seasons ago. It may or may not go that way. Have a well thought through contingency plan in place as a back-up in other words here. Include within it, a more "creative approach" to the '24 pitching rotation especially. Because this is precisely what will make or break the '24 NYM season. Everything else is in-place and ready to go.

    To me having Senga, Imanaga (a lefty with five pitches incl. a 95 mph fastball, a sweeper pitch, and a sinker), and Severino in the one thru three starter roles is very convincingly sound providing Severino can return to his old self, which I believe that he can. Then having maybe six or seven starters to look at in ST for the four, five, and six roles, should prove the right way to approach this feat.

    I would include in this guys like Houser, Lucchesi, Quintana, Megill, Drew Smith, Adams, Butto, Nathan Lavender, and even Josh Walker. From these seven might just come not only the four and five starters, but also a few solid arms for the '24 Mets bullpen. The more the merrier.

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