Paul Articulates – What if?

It is an understatement to say that this off-season has been frustratingly quiet for New York Mets fans.

After a flurry of administrative hires in the player development, scouting, and coaching staff areas, the Mets had a large roster gap to fill.  Their 40-man roster was down a dozen players at one point just before the rule 5 draft cutoff, and although it slowly trickled back up to the 38 players on the current roster, there were no blockbuster names added.  Instead, they were many minor acquisitions of players that will inevitably fight for a job in spring training.

We all know that Steve Cohen and David Stearns made a valiant effort to lure Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Queens and was not able to convince him this was a better fit than Los Angeles.   I can’t fault them for trying, as I have heard the numbers that were thrown out there in the negotiations and it far exceeded what any other Mets owner would have done over their history to obtain a key player.  But that deal was done, and in the aftermath there were no signings of the next best free agents on the list.  No DH, no starting pitcher, no big back-end reliever.

So that leads me to the title line.  What if plan A was go get Yamamoto and then fill the DH and bullpen to make a run at the playoffs in 2024; but plan B was to do nothing?

Nothing?  After developing tremendous credibility as a team that would do what it takes to win with the signing of Francisco Lindor in 2021?  After doubling down on big names like Baez, Marte, Scherzer, Verlander, and others and then making a big 101-win run in 2022?  Plan B is to do nothing and see what the prospects and the fringe signings can do for us?

There is a scenario where the Mets make do with what they have today – strong players in Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo; possibly strong players in a developing Alvarez and a hopefully healthy Marte; and then some positive turns.  Maybe there is a resurgence by Brett Baty; maybe DJ Stewart continues an upward trajectory from his strong finish last year.  Could Drew Gilbert and/or LuisAngel Acuna rise to readiness this spring?  What if Mike Vasil, Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel, Tylor Megill, and Drew Peterson become interchangeable parts in long relief and spot starts to give the team a chance to win on days when Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are not pitching?  Maybe Houser and Lucchesi become solid SP3 and SP4 with the help of the newly established pitching lab.

All these things could happen if the stars align, no one gets hurt, and team confidence blossoms with early success.

The cold, hard reality is that “could” doesn’t often turn into “did”.  The probability that all those above conditions come through is very low.  Without them, the probability that this team competes in the NL East and the National League playoff race is pretty low.  This is why so much has been written about what the Mets “should” do to acquire players this off-season.  This is why so many writers have speculated or embellished rumors that the team is interested in an available star.  Everyone knows that something needs to happen to boost the probability of success.  David Stearns cannot afford a “do nothing” gamble and hold any credibility as one of the best front office minds.