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1/27/24

Reese Kaplan -- The Oddest Acquisition by David Stearns Thus Far


When the Mets bid but missed out on Yoshinubo Yamamoto, you at least felt they were trying to compete but didn't win the bid.  On Shoehei Ohtani stories are circulating that they never received a call from his management team, hence you wonder why the Mets did not press a bit harder.  Still, with the injury he has now and the record setting contract he received it is not a missed opportunity that will cause major heartache for the fans.  

Then came the influx of new players like the seemingly never healthy and off a horrific season Luis Severino.  When he's good he's very good but when he's bad he's not exactly better.  

Various other additions like Joey Wendle, Zach Short and a myriad of unheralded relief pitchers all felt like fringe acquisitions rather than key pieces.  Still, given the injury histories of a great many players and the somewhat barren bench and bullpen it was understandable but didn't check off the box about a key talent that would help push the team up and over the .500 level of competitiveness.  

In addition, I'd throw in the trade that brought Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to New York as well.  Houser could be a healthy addition superior to the inconsistency of other options the Mets have tried towards the back of the rotation, or he could evolve into a long reliever.  Taylor and DJ Stewart form a credible if not spectacular 4th and 5th outfielders for the ball club.  


The one where it became a positive head scratcher was the contract extended to defensive whiz and offensive whiff, Harrison Bader.  No one is denying the elite skills he brings to center field.  The Mets have kind of run the gamut of great, good, adequate and awful in that position in the past.  The story goes that with an unknown commodity in the recovering Starling Marte, the acquisition of Bader enables the Mets to slide Brandon Nimmo to left field and between the three starters out there the club would be able to have a solid defensive team once the ball is lined, popped up or hammered over the infield dirt.

Anyone who has watched Bader over the years knows that the real issue is what he can provide with the bat.  Looking at the numbers suggest it is not pretty.  For his career he's just a .243 hitter with a little base running speed and a little bit of power.  He's expected on a 162 game basis to provide 15 HRs and 55 RBIs along with 20 SBs.  The problem is he simply doesn't play that much.  Between injuries and benching for his offensive liability he mostly is a part time player.  The longest haul he's provided is 427 ABs and that was back in 2018 for the Cardinals.  Since then it's been a steady downhill total of at-bats which makes one wonder exactly what the Mets expect of the man.

To be fair, he's got a pretty dramatic platoon split.  Being a right handed batter, as you would expect he does much better against southpaws than when facing righthanders.  For his career he is closer to a .300 hitter when a lefty is on the mound.  Against righties, well, let's just say we'd wish for the offensive exploits of Juan Lagares instead.  Bader is just a couple of steps above the Mendoza line.  

It would suggest, therefore, that a platoon arrangement with Bader starting against lefties and handling late inning defensive replacement and pinch running duties would make sense, but consider that the Mets forked over $10.5 million ($9.5 in salary and $1 million in signing bonus) which suggests they feel he's going to play quite a bit more against right handed pitching as well.  It is possible they'd move Nimmo back to center field on the days when Bader would be over matched against a strong right handed pitcher, but then is DJ Stewart or Tyrone Taylor the real answer to vaulting the team back into contention?


Then there is the happiness expressed by free agent to be, Pete Alonso.  He and Bader were college teammates and he viewed this move quite favorably.  There surely is a value in keeping your cleanup hitter with a positive impression of the organization when it's entirely possible he will be seeking greener pastures in 2025.  

Everyone here hopes that the defense-first approach taken by POBO David Stearns reaps rewards for the ball club but scoring runs may be as much (if not more) of a struggle than it was under Billy Eppler's roster last year.  Strong sophomore campaigns from Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez could make the Bader question moot.  A comeback of the year season from Starling Marte could, too.  For now, however, it was not a huge amount of money but even a moderate amount that may or may not have been well spent.    

24 comments:

  1. Hi Reese, Did you know Bader is Jewish

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  2. In talking with my grandson, we came to the conclusion that the injury to Ronny Mauricio changed some plans. We concluded that the plan was to fall back and see what the kids can do. Find out who is our third basement. Play Brett at third, Ronny (listed as the 6th best prospect) at second. McNeil plays left. Now McNeil goes back to second and the signing of Bader.

    The second half of the year was to find the second baseman - Acuno or Jett, and see if Gilbert is ready.

    A lot of moving pieces. If half succeed, that's great. If more than half succeed, then you have a different problem as well.

    With placing Chavez back to hitting coach, to us, indicates an effort to get back to the 2022 hitting approach that worked with the front of the batting order. If the kids can exceed the bottom half of the 2022 order, might the offense okay?

    Two other things:
    1 the pitching side would follow the same type of plan.
    2 even with all the talk of Cohen's money, he will not continue to pour money into the team as he has done the last two years. $100 million in luxury tax and poor draft positions?

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  3. The Mets are a team with a lot of question marks for sure. My problem with the way Stearns has put the team together is that he could have and should have signed better players with the money spend.

    If 2024 is a year to find out about what you have in Baty, Vientos, Alvarez and others, why can it not also be a year to prepare for 2025?

    Why not sign high end BP arms which are still available to multiple year backloaded contracts to minimize the payroll knowing that in 2024 and beyond you will have a shutdown BP?.

    Why not offer a pitcher like Brandon Woodruff a cheap hold over contract for 2024 with team option 2025, player option in 2026. You know, planning for the future?.

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  4. Mack,

    No, I did not know that nor do I think it bears any relation to his inferior hitting ability.

    Reese

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    Replies
    1. This question didn't come from me Reese

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    2. White men can't jump, and Jews can't hit. 😁
      But they sure can defend.

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  5. Viper, Woodruff is still out there and has a shoulder injury. No one know how he can return, but he will surely sign when spring training starts in a few weeks and he can be put straight onto the 60 day IL to not need to hold a roster spot.

    Reese, the eight year Nimmo contract was about two years too long. Cohen had “no choice” due to the lack of CF options and wanting to keep his team complete after signing Verlander and having Scherzer already around. Nimmo has made up for his worsening defense with better offense however, so getting a glove first guy and batting him 9th for one year is ok. Hopefully, Baty can improve; do not need two black holes in the lineup.

    Speaking of the lineup, the issue of who hits fifth will probably be an important factor to the success of the team. If someone undeserving is plugged in, that isn’t good for production so high up in the order. If it’s someone that can do damage, it supports the top four better, seeing your five through nine players being Alvarez, Vientos, Marte, Baty, and Bader. This lineup compilation was the biggest reason to let Alonso hit fifth, like Wright used to, to support Cespedes. We need a Cespedes at cleanup, but we have a Kingman, and that’s why I wouldn’t extend Alonso so quickly.

    However, if Marte is healthy and you give me:McNeil, Marte, Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, Bader, the balance is better, but I dont like three righties in a row and batting Nimmo or McNeil fifth is not open for discussion. In closing, the problem isn’t Bader being the strong link in the OF and batting in the pitcher’s spot - LOL - it’s who to best utilize the middle three spots in the order.

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  6. A couple of things

    1. You have to have some fiscal responsibility at some point. The Cohen tax is killing any chance of getting this payroll back in order

    2. There are no leaks in the Cohen ship so for all we know they see progress with the pitching labs and the current pitchers using it

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  7. MLB Pipeline came out with their new Top 100 prospects and 5 Mets made the list

    3 were players obtained in the Max and Verlander trades. Only Jett Williams is a homegrown talent

    The Mets have proven they can't draft spit

    Maybe their future is trading established players like Pete, Jeff, and Marte for other teams top prospects could create the next great Mets team

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  8. Well the Nats traded Soto,Scherzer and Turner L

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  9. Mack, the Mets had four make the list: Williams, Gilbert, Acuna, and Clifford.

    The Cubs had 7, the Orioles had 6, the Reds, Padres, and Pirates had 5 each. So, those five teams had 28 of the 100. Impressive.

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  10. Infielder Jett Williams was the first Met ranked at No. 45 and outfielder Drew Gilbert followed at No. 53. Infielder Luisangel Acuña was next at No. 56, while INF/OF Ryan Clifford ranked No. 97.

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    Replies
    1. 5 was a misprint

      As always, thanks for shadowing me

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    2. My pleasure Mack. Got your back buddy!

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  11. Meanwhile, those same Cubs just signed Hector Neris

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  12. I still say trade Alonso for prospects. Use Vientos as the 1B and sign Justin Turner to back up both in case one falls on his face. I think that an everyday Vientos plus Turner can make up the production of losing Alonso.

    And you drop the payroll about 10M. Get Alonso back as a free agent if the experiment goes bad.

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  13. Viper, that was my thinking all along. But I have adjusted. As noted by Tim Britton among others whose opinion I respect not just who write on the internet, your return would probably be a Top 100 prospect (Clifford) and a AA pitcher, say Hamel. Would you trade Alonso for Clifford and Hamel knowing that he 1. Is a smart hitter that can probably adjust to being more complete if he would stop selling out for the homerun, and 2. may hold a grudge and not sign back? I don’t think that’s worth it, unless he is unreasonable.

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  14. That was me again.

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  15. Look at the Nats,there ready to explode,traded Scherzer Turner and Soto for much prospects.

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  16. The other side of the coin is that Boras is Alonso's agent and he always likes to take his clients to free agency and rumors have it that he will be asking for a contract in the 200M range. Is Alonso worth anything close to that for the Mets? if not, they will lose him to free agency for a draft pick. For me, anything over 5 years for Alonso would be an overpay just like they overpaid in years and money for Nimmo.

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    1. Dude, if it didn’t happen in July when they were shopping him in earnest, it isn’t happening. The Mets gave up PCA for two months of Baez, who sucked before they got him. For a first baseman that doesn’t get on base, other teams aren’t stupid. He is a good player, but I don’t think he is worth $200MM. Problem is that the Mets fan base is not savvy enough to see that.

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    2. That was me again. I hate that the site can’t remember a log in.

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  17. Sorry, Mack. I need to read with my glasses on. It said "Mark" and I read "Mack".

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