The consensus seems to be that the 2024 Mets will be lucky to win more than 75 games.
After all, it is universally conceded that this
will be a year of transition as we find out whether our young core of Alvarez,
Baty and Vientos are able to take the next step forward.
Imagine for a minute that had the 2023 Mets won close to 50% of their games against lefty starters and if Diaz had been available, we would have been contenders.
We started off the year with high hopes
thinking we had an elite pitching staff headed up by Scherzer and Verlander. Neither
one lived up to expectations. Fortunately,
all is not lost since we were able to acquire several highly ranked prospects when
we traded both away.
The
projected rotation of Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser and Manaea, while not
formidable, should be solid. In addition,
there is depth with Megill, Lucchesi and Butto with Peterson available around
the first of June. This group might actually be an improvement over last year’s
staff now that Cookie is gone, and Quintana hopefully available for a full
year.
Right now,
the pen consists of Diaz, Raley, Smith, Megill, Lucchesi, Butto. I expect them to add at least one more strong
arm with the eighth spot filled by one of the many pickups made during this offseason. Or perhaps, Lavender or some other internal
option makes the grade.
The offense appears
to be stronger than last season assuming Marte remains healthy. The top six of
Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso, McNeil and Alvarez match up well against any
team. Expect Baty and Vientos to make
significant improvements over last season since their growing pains should be
behind them. I also anticipate McNeil
and Alonso to improve, especially Pete in his walk year.
I’ve said it
before and I’ll repeat myself, the Mets will surprise in ’24 and will be
serious contenders unless they are hit with a series of devastating injuries.
Ray
January 15, 2024
Ray, nice.
ReplyDeleteI think if Marte is Marte again, the Mets just got a lot better. Offense could be above average. Possibly a mid 80s win team. Boost the bullpen to get it into high 80s.
Agree.
ReplyDeleteThere contenders! Sneaky good rotation,Megillah,Luchressi Butto in BP,returning Marte, . If Baty and/or Vientos are ML players all is good.
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to count on six guys to all perform to their expected stats. Something always goes wrong, whether it is an injury or a slump and subsequent loss of confidence.
ReplyDeleteHowever, 2024 could be different because the expectations will be so low. The perceived lack of pressure could actually help them just "go out and play" which should yield the best possible result.
I just don't know that the starting rotation is actually going to give good results. Guys like Severino and Houser are long shots to have good years.
For it to work with this starting rotation we need a killer pen and we're not there yet AND a real DH then if everything goes right we have a shot.
ReplyDeleteBut Gary, if Marte is healthy, hitting is already above average:
ReplyDeleteAlvarez (Narvaez), Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Baty, Marte, Nimmo, Bader (Taylor/Stewart), Vientos. I'd be fine with that offense.
Nice piece Ray. I share your hopeful outlook. We seem to have a pretty tough schedule over the first six weeks or so. If we can tread water until things soften up, we could make the summer fun and interesting. Of course, it’s going to be interesting regardless to watch the high upside kids - both in Queens and down below - develop.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with both Ray and Tom (and other here) that this offense will be much more potent, and likely above average (on the road, at least, right Tom?) if Marte can be even close to the player he was when he got here. A lot to ask, I know. If not, I think we’ll see Gilbert manning RF sooner than later.
DeleteMy only regret is that Buck Showalter could have cared enough last year to be managing this year. I was very disappointed seeing him let the team sink at times last year and he wasn’t who he was the year before. That sucked and I can’t blame them for wanting someone with more passion and more backbone.
ReplyDeleteGus just hit on the thought that I had as I was reading through Ray's article.
ReplyDeleteThere is more to the performance team than the names on the roster. We still have never seen Carlos Mendoza manage a game or have any insight into his clubhouse. Team character and chemistry can swing a season around. (To the good or otherwise). I suspect that 2022 was a case of the former and 2023 was a turn-around from the positive. I am not sure how things went south that quickly.
Remember when Cohen said that he didn’t want people learning on his dime? I’d like to see him stop being nice to everybody and pleasing a populous that just can’t be pleased.
DeleteI also agree with Ray about the upcoming season. I am optimistic that with one more solid bullpen arm, they have a contending team.
ReplyDeleteIn defense of Showalter, he had to deal with a lot of interference from above.
ReplyDeleteMy main grip with Buck was not letting his pitchers know he'd have their back if they hit the other team's batters more. Not head hunting, but a deterrent.
ReplyDeleteThe 2022 Marte HBP cost them the Division title.
The 2023 Alonso HBP in early June derailed the team and caused them to spiral out of the Wild Card
That’s a very fair statement to make Tom. Even better than my referring to his lack of a backbone because I forgot how those two incidents changed both seasons. The first one cost the division that they had in their back pocket and the other contributed to the sell off. Problem is, in a car if a cylinder is blown the rest will work but the car runs like crap. How do you explain the rest of the lineup not stepping up in either instance?
ReplyDeleteGus, the Mets as I recall had a very easy 2023 first 2 month schedule, which was hindered by Verlander, Quintana and Diaz being out and Scherzer missing a bit too, oh, and Carrasco as well. June was a killer schedule. Even with Pete, it was going to be very tough. Without him, they imploded.
ReplyDeleteGet a few bullpen arms NOW or face a Wilson-like season of failing to shore up weak spots due to a desire to stop spending. Smart spending is smart spending. If 2 bullpen arms at $6 million to $10 million in added salary increase the Mets' Wild Card chances from 20% to 60%, gotta do it. One year salaries, so if the 40% happens you can shed those 2 guys to a contender. Moving is a hassle but if it means making the playoffs, you'd be happy to be traded mid season...
Right now have no idea how good our BP is. Love to have a solid lefty added.
ReplyDeleteRay, Lavender was strong in AAA all last year, a real lefty possibility.
ReplyDeleteBrad Hand and Andrew Miller were 2 shaky starters who did dandy stuff in the pen. Maybe that can be Joey Lucchesi. 23-24, 4.07, 1.27 WHIP, and 350 Ks in 384 career MLB innings. Nothing wrong with those #s whatsoever. It seems he deserves much more respect than he's gotten.