Was the 2023 draft a success or failure?
Interesting topic, I'd say.
Maybe you have a better projecting answer than me.
My answer?
Too darned early to tell, dag nab it.
The draftees either did not play, or barely played, in 2023 so there was little to evaluate.
Jim Callis did a review of his top 8 draft teams, and the NL East Marlins and Nats were #6 and #7, but the Mets missed his Top 8.
By how much, I don’t know; he stopped at #8.
Another site, “Just Baseball”, gave the Mets a B, and “Oddschecker” gave them a B+.
And the Mets’ first pick was # 32 overall, due to intense violation of the luxury cap. Ouch. That drop in selection position hurts.
Still, a B or B+ under those circumstances is impressive.
Who are the 2023 draftees, in brief?
Competitive Round A, # 32 – SS/3B Colin Houck – HS
Another guy the Mets selected that was projected to go higher. Hopefully, he will develop as if he were a top 12 selection, rather than 32nd. He is #7 in Mets' top 30 list. Ralph Houk, the Major, gladly would have managed Houck. Colin had a .389 OBP in 36 PAs in 2023, and will play all of 2024 as a 19 year old.
Round 2, # 56 Overall – RHP Brandon Sproat – Florida
Hard thrower. Hopefully, he will be known as highly successful hard thrower. Drafted but not signed by the Mets in 2022, they drafted him again and got him in 2023. He is #14 in the Mets' top 30 list. He has yet to pitch professionally.
Round 3, # 91 – RHP/OF Nolan McLean – Oklahoma State
Round 3 (Comp pick) # 101 – RHP Kade Morris – Nevada
Solid pitcher, it appears. He is #29 in the Mets' top 30 list. 3.1 IP in 2024, 1 earned run, 3 Ks.
Round 4, # 123 – RHP Wyatt Hudepohl – UNC-Charlotte
Similar grading to Kade Morris, but not quite as skilled. Starts his career in 2024.
Round 4 (Comp Pick) # 134 – SS A.J. Ewing – Springsboro HS (OH)
Gambled on a high school kid, rather than more pitching. Turns 20 in May, and he got on base 12 of 22 times in his 2023 debut!
Round 4 (Comp Pick) # 135 – RHP Austin Troesser – Missouri
Hard throwing reliever. Turns 22 in late March. In 2023, 1 IP, 3 Ks!
Round 5, # 159 – LHP Zach Thornton – Grand Canyon University
Who doesn’t love a good lefty? Just turned 22. Will debut in 2024.
Round 6, # 186 – RHP Jack Wenninger – Illinois - turns 22 in March. In 2.1 pro innings, 2 runs, 4 Ks.
Round 7, # 216 – RHP Noah Hall – South Carolina - turns 23 soon, will debut in 2024.
Round 8, # 246 – SS Boston Baro – Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - will play most of 2024 at age 19; got on base a swell 11 of 24 times in his 2023 debut.
Round 9, # 276 – 3B Nick Lorusso – Maryland - Power hitter. Already 23, so he jumped in, getting up 100 times for St Lucie in 2023 and getting on base 25 times.
Round 10, # 306 – C Christian Pregent – Stetson - plays 2024 at age 2023, and he played for St Lucie in 2023, going 5 for 34.
Round 11, # 336 – RHP Brett Banks – UNC-Wilmington
Round 12, # 366 – RHP Brady Kirtner – Virginia Tech
Round 13, # 396 – RHP Ben Simon – Elon University
Round 14, # 426 – RHP John Valle – Jefferson HS (FL)
Round 15, # 456 – RHP Justin Lawson – North Carolina State
Round 16, # 486 – 3B Jake Zitella – St. Charles East HS (IL)
Round 17, # 516 – RHP Bryce Jenkins – Tennessee
Round 18, # 546 – LHP Gavyn Jones – White Oak HS (TX) unsigned
Round 19, # 576 – RHP Christian Little – LSU - unsigned
Round 20, # 606 – OF Kellum Clark – Mississippi State
Lots of signed pitchers (a good thing); we’ll see who among this group rocks and who rolls in 2024.
Just as an aside, 7 players in the Mets' top 30 prospect list, and 4 in their top 8, arrived in 2023 via trade. Which…
Does not speak well for the team's long-term drafting, huh? Maybe the draft tide is changing, though, on the S.S. Stearns.
NEXT DRAFT ARTICLE UP:
Recap of 2012 through 2023 drafts.
INTERESTING:
Mike Mayers reported this:
"…the Top 101 prospects from Baseball Prospectus … has 5 Mets in it: Jett Williams - 23 Drew Gilbert - 29 Ryan Clifford - 76 Luisangel Acuña - 77 Christian Scott - 88"
Interesting to see Chris Scott in the Top 100, Acuna slide down 40 spots, Mack’s bopper Ryan Clifford jump into it, my guy Jett at the Mets' top, closely followed by Drew Gilbert...and no Top 100 for Parada. Feels about right to me. Parada will probably climb back into it this year.
Joey Lucchesi?
Wake up, Mets people! Use the Dude!
As a starter or reliever.
Brad Hand and Andrew Miller were 2 shaky lefty starters early in their careers who later did mighty dandy stuff in their respective bullpens.
In 2021, I wrote this about Hand:
Brad Hand was a Jack Fisher-like 8-24, with a 4.86 ERA, as a starter. He also fanned a pedestrian 135 in 222 career starter innings. Pretty sucky.
But Hand as a relief pitcher? Night and day. 18-19, with 105 saves in 353 relief outings, with an amazing 489 Ks in 387 innings.
Late in 2020, I wrote this about Miller:
Miller started his career as a starter. Simply put, he was awful:
67 starts, 20-27, 5.70 ERA, just 255 Ks in 325 innings.
His last 9 seasons (through 2020), he relieved instead, and had sensational seasons:
Two seasons with ERAs below 1.50. Two others barely above 2.00.
Years where he fanned 123 in 74 IP, 100 in 61 IP, and 103 in 62 IP.
In 2015 and 2016, he was 13-3 with 48 saves. Sensational.
Drastically better ERA and K rate as a reliever. Like two different people.
Maybe that can be the case for Joey Lucchesi, if you're not going to start him.
The Mets' funky but effective lefty has a 23-24 record, 4.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 381 Ks in 384 career MLB innings, almost all as a starter. 3-0, 2.89 last year.
Much better than Miller as a starter, much better than Hand as a starter.
Heck, hulking Lucas Giolito had a 4.89 ERA in 2022 and 2023 in 370 innings, with scads of home runs allowed, so…
Why, exactly, wouldn’t I prefer to have and use Joey over Lucas?
Nuttin' wrong with them Joey #s whatsoever, bro'.
Steve Matz? How does the former Fab Five member compare?
His career is "Joey times two, with Joey having a bit of a statistical edge":
- Matz in his career is 54-58, 4.25, 848 Ks in 883 innings.
It thus seems Lucchesi deserves much more respect than he's gotten, as evidenced by his excessive time in the minors.
I do not want to see the name Lucchesi and Syracuse in any sentence after this one this year. Fuggedabotit. Joey is a 100% major leaguer.
Start him. Or stick him in the pen, can I have an amen? He'll do great.
Or, we could just hire Carlos Carrasco back. After all, he was 3–8, 6.80 in 90 quality innings last year … why couldn’t we get just as good quality from Carlos in 2024, and just sent Joey to the minors again? I like 3–8, 6.80, don’t you? Much better than 4–0, 2.89, that’s for sure.
THE TAX BILL
Most people hope they get tax refunds.
In baseball, the competitive tax can be huge for a few teams, and needs to be accurately estimated, so you as an owner know how much trouble you are getting into.
The Mets are reducing compensation in 2024 compared to 2023. And the 2024 tax bill ought to drop a lot as a result:
In 2023, per Spotrac, the taxable payroll and benefits were $374.7 million, and the related tax bill was $100.7 million.
In 2024, per Spotrac's estimate, the taxable payroll and benefits will be roughly $302.5 million. They calculate payroll and benefits to exceed the cap by $62 million. Even though the highest luxury tax rate is 110%, it goes up in 3 escalating percentage tiers, so the total estimated tax is less than 110% of the $62 million excess; the tax estimate is $44.5 million.
If you want to be clearer on the numbers for both years, you'll have to look at Spotrac's Mets team payroll page for both years and dive in.
2024 most likely will change from 2023, tax-wise, for a few reasons:
1) If they sign a reliever or two, the salaries increase and the tax increase would all be at 110%.
2) If they have any players who get a MLB salary even if sent to the minors, if they send that dude down, and call up another guy, the total salary goes up slightly - and so will the total tax.
3) If they are sellers at the deadline, salaries for taxes go down by how much in salary they save (reduced by the call-up replacement player's salary).
4) If they are in the race near the deadline, and acquire costly players and their related salary, Mets season payroll will increase, and every added dollar is accompanied by a 110% tax.
When Verlander's compensation paid by the Mets in 2024 drops significantly in 2025, and when Scherzer's and McCann's 2024 Mets compensation goes to zero in 2025, they likely will either get closer down to the cap, or go below the cap, in 2025 - but that is getting way ahead of ourselves.
Lastly, Messrs. Bonilla and Saberhagen have $2.44 million in deferred salary being paid to them in 2023 and 2024, both of which amounts boost the tax bill by 110%. The duo are the gifts that keep on giving.
Hope that helps - and doesn't confuse. Reading it could be quite taxing.
My hopes is that Lucchese starts the season off as Long Man 1 in the pen
ReplyDeleteI assume one of Luchessi, Megill, or Butto will be the long man out of the Pen. I’m with you Mack I think Luchessi is the best option for it and is a Lefty too. Unless they go with the 6 man Rotation then he should be #6.
DeleteYou know I am a draft guy
ReplyDeleteWas not thrilled with a single pick last year
Uh oh,all the prospects the Nats got for Turner,Scherzer and Soto,if some of them come through the M,ets could finish last with one of the highest payrolls. Think about it.
ReplyDeleteAlex, hitting better, defense better, and pitching right now perhaps worse than 2023. I think this is a mid 80s win team.
ReplyDeleteCurious about who you would have drafted instead.
ReplyDeleteI don't remember but there were 20+ starters.out there I would have picked ahead of another shortstop
DeleteMack, you'd know draftees better than me. I truly hope Houck works out, as this organization prospect wise has far more hitters than pitchers, so I would have preferred a pitcher there.
ReplyDeleteSneaky good rotation if VIentos/Baty come through this team is good.
ReplyDeleteBy my count (and I’m still on my first cup of coffee out here on the west coast, so I could be off by one) 14 of 20 signed ‘23 draftees are pitchers (if we call McLean a pitcher). An awful (hopefully not awful) lot of them were college relievers with seemingly mediocre stats, which seems curious, but hey, I’m no scout). Seems like the org has a high opinion of their ability to mold power arms, though we need to remember that most of the FO that drafted these guys is no longer here (which also doesn’t inspire confidence in this crop). ‘24 is the first time we’ll get to see a draft run by Stearns’ people, so the philosophy could look much different. As to the ‘23 draft, I don’t know what to think about Houck, but I have some hopes for both Baro and Lorusso as hitters. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Tom (and Mack) on Lucchesi. He’s had bad injury luck, but seems to be a potentially very useful lefty, and may thrive as a long reliever/swingman, a role we didn’t have filled last year, and seems important given current realities of both the game and our ‘24 rotation.
Adam, when we will have a draft where we look back 5 years later and note how excellent it was.
ReplyDeleteYou get the sense that 21st century Mets drafts get an overall C-.
Mack, maybe Houck will blow us away…but I am with you…I would have picked a pitcher.
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't just the first pick
DeleteThere are at least 10 players picked that simply didn't deserve to be picked
Truth
DeleteI stopped doing my draft stuff because I got sick and tired of busting my ass to build the right order of talent per position only to watch the dweeb in the war room all try and win the "I can pick the longest long shot to won" year after year
And for a big market team, failing at the draft game results in tons of free agent spending.
ReplyDeleteAmazin Z, I think Megill and Butto belong with the Mets. One guy I completely forgot is on the roster is Tonkin, who was 7-3, 4.28 with the Braves last season as a 33 year old.
ReplyDeleteRather have Parada then Rocker. That’s why your wise to take position players over pitchers.
ReplyDeleteLou, I don’t really entirely disagree with you. It would be fascinating to see a list of first round draft pick pitchers, Mets, and non-Mets, over the last 20 years, and see which one’s bombed out altogether because of injury in my in the minor leagues, and which ones missed significant time or arrived at the major-league level as impaired goods due to injuries in the minors. I would imagine the significant injury rate of hitters in the minors is far less.
ReplyDeleteEven though they can also get hurt. Pete Alonzo had two broken hands in the minors, and Jeff McNeil, due to a hernia and hip surgery, missed the better part of two years. But as a rule, I would say the pictures taken a lot worse and are a lot bigger gamble to draft. And, when you’re the Mets, and you’ve had so many substandard draft years, it’s very difficult to select the high-end picture, because that high-end pitcher may blow up like rocker like ALLAN, like Ginn. Like Paul Wilson.
And sometimes, you find yourself with a Matt Harvey , who makes it to the majors, exuding brilliance, and then breaks down like a Chevy Vega. That said, if you’re going to draft hitters, draft a bunch of great ones that other teams will want to trade pitchers for later on. Or, you end up Signing one huge free agent pitcher contract after another.