I love Fangraphs. Check them out. Fangraphs.com.
They put their money where their mouths are, so to speak, by projecting stats for 2024 for all Mets' players on the roster.
They do projections for all teams, so if you're wondering how a guy you might like the Mets to sign is projected to do in 2024 by Fangraphs, you can easily do so.
Below are those Mets Fangraphs projections so far, which of course will change as new player moves occur. (Article was already done, so I did not include new acquiree Harrison Bader, whose brother Garth Bader is known to have a dark side. Harrison ought to firm up the offense and defense a bit if he stays healthy). (Pete Alonso played with Bader in college and is excited to have his buddy reunited with him in Queens. Fangraphs has Bader at 403 PAs, 17 steals, .245/.301/.399. That, plus his stellar defense? I can live with that.)
Hitter column headings didn't copy over, but they are:
PAs, Avg,, OBP, Slug %, wOBA, BAT, BsR, Fld.
If you're interested in what wOBA, BAT and BsR are, go on and google that.
What are your thoughts on these players' projections?
My first thought was:
If Marte has a whopping 595 plate appearances, as they project, that would be a huge relief for 2024.
My second was that I sure hope Edwin's ERA is lower than 2.80, which is much higher than his 2022 ERA was.
Francisco Lindor  | 672 | .254 | .333 | .446 | .336 | 12.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 4.3 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 630 | .269 | .364 | .443 | .352 | 20.1 | -1.4 | -3.8 | 3.8 |
| Pete Alonso | 672 | .250 | .340 | .515 | .359 | 25.4 | -2.8 | 0.1 | 3.3 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 504 | .232 | .316 | .459 | .332 | 7.6 | -1.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| Jeff McNeil | 616 | .289 | .348 | .418 | .335 | 10.7 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 2.6 |
| Brett Baty | 448 | .248 | .320 | .420 | .321 | 2.7 | -1.0 | -1.8 | 1.7 |
| Starling Marte | 595 | .263 | .320 | .404 | .315 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -5.1 | 1.2 |
| Omar Narváez | 307 | .244 | .322 | .370 | .306 | -2.1 | -1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 406 | .237 | .291 | .421 | .306 | -2.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Mark Vientos | 350 | .244 | .310 | .449 | .325 | 3.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.9 |
| DJ Stewart | 399 | .221 | .323 | .417 | .322 | 2.9 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 0.7 |
| Joey Wendle | 308 | .245 | .289 | .362 | .283 | -7.8 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 63 | .255 | .300 | .417 | .307 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Tyler Heineman | 32 | .226 | .305 | .326 | .283 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Zack Short | 119 | .197 | .304 | .328 | .284 | -3.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Trayce Thompson | 35 | .198 | .296 | .374 | .294 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| José Iglesias | 28 | .252 | .292 | .350 | .281 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Taylor Kohlwey | 7 | .226 | .312 | .333 | .289 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cooper Hummel | 48 | .200 | .308 | .326 | .286 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Total | 6240 | .251 | .326 | .429 | .327 | 66.4 | -9.0 | -5.1 | 24.7 |
SP Mets
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 187.0 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .293 | 74.4% | 3.77 | 3.88 | 3.3 |
| José Quintana | 168.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .297 | 72.3% | 4.26 | 4.43 | 1.7 |
| Luis Severino | 144.0 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .294 | 72.3% | 4.31 | 4.42 | 1.6 |
| Tylor Megill | 131.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | .297 | 71.1% | 4.64 | 4.75 | 0.9 |
| Adrian Houser | 122.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .303 | 70.5% | 4.63 | 4.72 | 0.9 |
| David Peterson | 77.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 75.2% | 3.60 | 3.94 | 1.2 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 45.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.0% | 4.31 | 4.53 | 0.5 |
| José Butto | 18.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.49 | 4.64 | 0.2 |
| Mike Vasil | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | .289 | 71.6% | 4.60 | 4.76 | 0.1 |
| Dominic Hamel | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .292 | 71.4% | 4.72 | 4.85 | 0.1 |
| Total | 909.0 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .297 | 72.5% | 4.23 | 4.37 | 10.3 |
RP Mets
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Díaz | 64.0 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | .288 | 77.7% | 2.80 | 2.75 | 1.9 |
| Brooks Raley | 63.0 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .293 | 73.8% | 3.93 | 4.15 | 0.4 |
| Drew Smith | 63.0 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | .285 | 73.5% | 4.39 | 4.64 | 0.1 |
| Phil Bickford | 62.0 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .288 | 72.5% | 4.37 | 4.49 | 0.1 |
| Jorge López | 61.0 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | .301 | 73.1% | 3.91 | 4.07 | 0.2 |
| Michael Tonkin | 58.0 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .292 | 72.8% | 4.08 | 4.19 | 0.1 |
| Austin Adams | 56.0 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .291 | 72.5% | 4.14 | 4.29 | 0.1 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | 51.0 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .291 | 74.6% | 3.80 | 3.93 | 0.1 |
| Grant Hartwig | 44.0 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .296 | 72.6% | 4.25 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| José Butto | 38.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.49 | 4.64 | 0.0 |
| Josh Walker | 36.0 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .291 | 74.5% | 3.88 | 4.13 | 0.0 |
| Reed Garrett | 33.0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.6% | 4.28 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| Yohan Ramirez | 28.0 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.0 | .297 | 72.6% | 4.16 | 4.43 | 0.0 |
| Cole Sulser | 24.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .289 | 73.2% | 4.30 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 21.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.0% | 4.31 | 4.53 | 0.0 |
| David Peterson | 19.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 75.2% | 3.60 | 3.94 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Crick | 17.0 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | .295 | 71.9% | 4.63 | 4.79 | 0.0 |
| Chad Smith | 14.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.1% | 4.15 | 4.40 | 0.0 |
| Adrian Houser | 12.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .303 | 70.5% | 4.63 | 4.72 | 0.0 |
| Justin Jarvis | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .289 | 72.8% | 4.35 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| Total | 549.0 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .293 | 73.3% | 4.04 | 4.21 | 3.1 |
ALL Pitchers Mets
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 187.0 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .293 | 74.4% | 3.77 | 3.88 | 3.3 |
| Edwin Díaz | 64.0 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | .288 | 77.7% | 2.80 | 2.75 | 1.9 |
| José Quintana | 168.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .297 | 72.3% | 4.26 | 4.43 | 1.7 |
| Luis Severino | 144.0 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .294 | 72.3% | 4.31 | 4.42 | 1.6 |
| David Peterson | 96.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 75.2% | 3.60 | 3.94 | 1.2 |
| Adrian Houser | 134.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .303 | 70.5% | 4.63 | 4.72 | 0.9 |
| Tylor Megill | 131.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | .297 | 71.1% | 4.64 | 4.75 | 0.9 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 66.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.0% | 4.31 | 4.53 | 0.5 |
| Brooks Raley | 63.0 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .293 | 73.8% | 3.93 | 4.15 | 0.4 |
| Jorge López | 61.0 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | .301 | 73.1% | 3.91 | 4.07 | 0.2 |
| José Butto | 56.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.49 | 4.64 | 0.1 |
| Michael Tonkin | 58.0 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .292 | 72.8% | 4.08 | 4.19 | 0.1 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | 51.0 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .291 | 74.6% | 3.80 | 3.93 | 0.1 |
| Phil Bickford | 62.0 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .288 | 72.5% | 4.37 | 4.49 | 0.1 |
| Mike Vasil | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | .289 | 71.6% | 4.60 | 4.76 | 0.1 |
| Austin Adams | 56.0 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .291 | 72.5% | 4.14 | 4.29 | 0.1 |
| Dominic Hamel | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .292 | 71.4% | 4.72 | 4.85 | 0.1 |
| Drew Smith | 63.0 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | .285 | 73.5% | 4.39 | 4.64 | 0.1 |
| Josh Walker | 36.0 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .291 | 74.5% | 3.88 | 4.13 | 0.0 |
| Reed Garrett | 33.0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.6% | 4.28 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| Cole Sulser | 24.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .289 | 73.2% | 4.30 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
| Grant Hartwig | 44.0 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .296 | 72.6% | 4.25 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| Yohan Ramirez | 28.0 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.0 | .297 | 72.6% | 4.16 | 4.43 | 0.0 |
| Chad Smith | 14.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.1% | 4.15 | 4.40 | 0.0 |
| Justin Jarvis | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .289 | 72.8% | 4.35 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Crick | 17.0 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | .295 | 71.9% | 4.63 | 4.79 | 0.0 |
| Total | 1458.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.8% | 4.16 | 4.31 | 13.4 |
Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 33.3 | 20.8 | 54.1 |
| Dodgers | 30.6 | 20.0 | 50.6 |
| Astros | 31.1 | 16.3 | 47.3 |
| Yankees | 32.5 | 14.7 | 47.2 |
| Blue Jays | 27.0 | 16.3 | 43.3 |
| Rays | 28.0 | 14.9 | 42.9 |
| Phillies | 21.9 | 20.8 | 42.7 |
| Cardinals | 26.0 | 15.9 | 42.0 |
| Twins | 24.2 | 17.5 | 41.7 |
| Orioles | 27.2 | 12.7 | 39.9 |
| Mariners | 23.1 | 16.3 | 39.4 |
| Rangers | 26.4 | 12.9 | 39.3 |
| Mets | 24.7 | 13.4 | 38.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 23.1 | 14.8 | 37.9 |
| Padres | 24.2 | 13.3 | 37.5 |
| Guardians | 24.3 | 12.7 | 37.1 |
| Red Sox | 20.6 | 15.1 | 35.6 |
| Brewers | 18.5 | 17.0 | 35.6 |
| Giants | 20.4 | 14.3 | 34.7 |
| Cubs | 20.2 | 14.0 | 34.2 |
| Marlins | 15.9 | 17.8 | 33.7 |
| Reds | 17.7 | 15.7 | 33.4 |
| Tigers | 17.9 | 14.9 | 32.8 |
| Angels | 19.6 | 12.4 | 32.0 |
| Royals | 18.6 | 12.4 | 31.0 |
| Pirates | 18.5 | 11.6 | 30.1 |
| Athletics | 15.4 | 9.6 | 25.1 |
| Nationals | 11.2 | 10.8 | 22.0 |
| White Sox | 13.7 | 7.9 | 21.5 |
| Rockies | 8.1 | 7.2 | 15.3 |
Fangraphs is cool to look at, and has some really advanced statistical models.
ReplyDeleteThat said, models based upon statistics are rooted in average performances over long periods and we know that on any particular season with any particular athlete, the environment can be much different.
Somehow, Mets players always seem to underperform the predictions. Maybe it is the pressure of the big city, the lack of adequate guidance to keep them healthy, or the fact that the fences are too far away from the plate (you're welcome Tom).
This pitching staff as currently constructed will not give the team 13.4 WAR. This offense will struggle to attain the projected numbers. This upcoming season will be a step back for all of us, and the sooner that the front office acknowledges that we are in a "build" process, the better.
Good points, Paul.
ReplyDeleteYes, this city adds pressure, especially when your team is Avis compared to the Hertz in the Bronx and when it makes the playoffs about as frequently as Halley's Comet sailing by.
Queens chews them up and spits them out.
Jake wins back to back Cy Youngs going 21-17 when, had he played for the Dodgers, that might have been 40-10.
Pete could be hitting 60 out in LA, or down in Texas. We "settle" for 45 and ask what's wrong with him.
This franchise has a faltering history of failure. It has failed so, so many times and succeeded so few times. Players wear that burden of past failure every day, and it adds pressure.
On another note, I personally do not think that Josh Walker's ERA will be better than Raley's.
Except a lot more from MeGill. He’s ready to break out.
ReplyDeleteFangraph is a series of predictions
ReplyDeletePredictions are useless
Results matter
Analyze them
Megill? I too think he will do better in 2024, if he is healthy.
ReplyDeleteIn Megill's first 9 outings of 2023, 2 were not good/not terrible, while the other 7 were good.
He then had back-to-back drubbings in late May, 12 runs in 10.2 innings. In June, 2 decent outings, 2 brutal outings, then to the IL.
He spent some weeks in AAA rehab and was terrible there...27 innings, 26 runs, 1.70 WHIP, an unexplainably low 14 strikeouts against 123 batters. Compare that to 2021, when he fanned 59 of 164 hitters in the minors. Something was clearly wrong.
Then they traded JV and Max, and ready or not, Megill came back, got shellacked by Baltimore and Atlanta, then seemed healthy again, with 8 outings totaling 45 innings with a 3.00 ERA.
In summary, I think his deep trough from late May to early August was injury-related and that he is poised, if he stays healthy, to have a strong 2024 as a fifth starter.
But Stearns and Mendoza have to believe it, not me.
Mack, if I went by production, I'd have not signed Bader, but if healthy, he projects to be a solid addition for a year.
ReplyDeleteTwain, Mark (Samuel Langhorne Clemens) (1835–1910):
ReplyDeleteFigures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Gus,
ReplyDeleteWilliam Shakespeare said this once about being a Mets fan:
'Give sorrow words; the grief that does not speak knits up the o-er wrought heart and bids it break.'
Dodger fans quote haikus.