Pages

1/9/24

Tom Brennan: Megill Optimism; & Most Favored Team Status

Tylor Megill 

Tylor Megill had a challenging 2023 season, even though he finished above .500 at 9-8.

He started the season strong, stepping in when Verlander began collecting huge paychecks while on the IL. Megill's first 9 starts, he was solid in 7 of the 9 and was 5-2, 3.88.  Nothing wrong with that.

Then he had a few real late May stinkers. Then June arrived, and he was hurting - he had 2 decent starts and 2 really bad starts - and he was off to the IL.

He spent some weeks in AAA rehab and was results-wise, just terrible there...27 innings, 26 runs, 1.70 WHIP, an inexplicably low 14 strikeouts against 123 batters. Compare that to 2021, when he fanned 59 of 164 hitters in the minors. Something was clearly wrong.  

Apparently, part of it was working on his mechanics to lessen the chance of injury, and slowly ramping his velocity back up, making him temporarily more hittable. 

Then they traded JV and Max, and ready or not, Megill came back.  

He faced two teams that won about 205 games last year and got shellacked by those teams - Baltimore and Atlanta.

Then seemed healthy again, with 8 outings totaling 45 innings with a 3.00 ERA.

I read in SouthJersey.com that he had been working with Senga on adding a splitter, apparently an easy pitch for Megill to throw given the size of his hands.  

When he used it a number of times at the end of the 2023 season, it worked well for him, making him a four pitch pitcher (fastball, slider, change, splitter).

In summary, I think his deep trough from late May to early August was injury-related, and that before and after that injury-related mid-season swoon, he was (to put it simply) good.

Given that, I believe he is poised, if he stays healthy, to have a strong 2024 as a fifth starter.  Give him 30 starts and he'll go 12-9, 3.75. 

But Stearns and Mendoza have to believe it, not me. 

My guess is they are not as much "believers," since a 2 year deal was agreed to by Sean Manaea shortly after I wrote this article.  Up to Megill to force them to believe by upping his game.

MOST FAVORED TEAM STATUS

"I am blessed and highly favored."

Most Favored Nation Status is defined thusly, per the internet:

"Most favored nation refers to a status conferred by a clause in which a country promises that it will treat another country as well as it treats any other country that receives preferential treatment. Most favored nation clauses are frequently included in bilateral investment treaties."

That is not an exact parallel to what I am about to write, but in baseball, there is a de facto Most Favored Team Status.

The Dodgers have that status; the Mets do not.

Teoscar Hernandez is a prime example of what an advantage a juggernaut "most favored team" like the Dodgers has.

He hit well in 2022, but fanned a whopping 211 times in 160 games.  Uhh-ohh. Sounds like early onset Chris Davis Syndrome to me, as his Ks per game have been climbing since 2021.

So...he badly wants to play for the World Series-favored juggernaut and agrees to a $23.5 million ONE YEAR DEAL with LAD, with a third of the dough deferred.  

A team-friendly deal that only a Most Favored Team might be able to strike. 

He'll probably thrive in 2024. Win a World Series, too.

Dodgers get that favorable Teoscar deal, without signing him for what might well be his decline years after 2024.

If he signed with the far less favored ("Most Highly Unfavored"?) Mets? 

He'd likely have accepted nothing less than 4 years, $90 million. 

His thinking might have been: "Take it or leave it, Mets.  I'm giving up my chance at winning a World Series if I sign with you instead of LAD, so you must overpay me for my services." 

For which the Mets, if they held their noses and did so, likely would have gotten one pressure-filled, playoffs-missed mediocre season in 2024 from Teoscar, with probably 230 Ks, and 3 subsequent declining albatross seasons while checked in at the Luxury Tax Hell Hotel.

You want Most Favored Team status?  

Somehow, turn this Mets franchise into a deep-into-the-playoffs team that has the chance to stay in that mode for years to come, and players will lust after signing team-favorable, cap-favorable deals with you.

Which is why Mr. Stearns is no doubt wishfully praying for the Mets' soon-to-be rookies being very good - and very cheap - in 2025. 

Most long term high dollar Mets contracts have come back to bite them.  And that really bites, and is a precursor to furthering the team's decades-long franchise malaise.

And my guess is the Mets' reputation to prospective star players is "sucks most of the time, and the rest of the time, finds a way to snatch success out of the jaws of victory."

For the Mets, "great" prospects need to quickly morph into great major leaguers for the team to begin to aspire to most favored team status.

14 comments:

  1. Good morning. This is to notify you that you have moved into Most Favored Reader Status. You've earned it.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A bit of a parody on the Beatles classic Bungalow Bill:

    Hey, Bungalow Bill
    What did you kill
    Bungalow Bill?


    ...could be...

    Hey, Tylor Megill
    When will you thrill?
    Tylor Megill?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Morning

    Re Megill... I no longer have confidence enough to return him to a rotation slot

    Make him a long man reliever

    As for the Dodger deal..

    Baseball agents seem to be making Strve Cohen into the patsy of any trade discussions

    More reason to retarded this team and concentrate on development of prospects

    Note

    The one place the Mets can hold other team's feet to the fire is trading established players for top prospects

    Trading Alonso McNeil and Marte mid season could insure a strong future

    ReplyDelete
  4. Replies
    1. Isn't that what the mysterious new "pitching lab" is supposed to do?

      Since it was first announced, has there been any info about what it does, and who will attend? Has anyone attended yet?
      Is it a real thing?

      Delete
    2. It is real

      There is plenty of info regarding this online. GOOGLE the words PITCHING LABS

      as for the Mets usage the team is tight lipped about this and all other subjects

      Delete
  5. In today’s Athletic, Tim Britton and Will Samson gave this answer to a potential Alonso deal:
    “ The best comp for an Alonso trade is probably the Paul Goldschmidt deal between Arizona and St. Louis. In exchange for Goldschmidt, the Cardinals gave up Carson Kelly (a consensus top-50 prospect), Luke Weaver (an established pre-arbitration starter who’d been below league average), Andrew Young (a Double-A infielder with solid stats), and the No. 75 pick in the draft (where Arizona took outfielder Dominic Fletcher). An easier way to look at that package might be translating it into Mets terms: Kelly is like Kevin Parada, Weaver like Tylor Megill, Young like Jeremiah Jackson, and the No. 75 pick like the No. 75 pick.*

    *This was a competitive-balance draft pick, which can be traded according to MLB’s rules.

    Now Goldschmidt then was better than Alonso now (15.2 wins above replacement over the previous three seasons, according to FanGraphs, compared to Alonso’s 9.9), so the Mets would be getting something less than that package. Maybe replace the consensus top-50 prospect with a borderline top-100 prospect and remove the No. 75 pick.”
    ——————————————————————————

    Besides that they said once you trade a player, you don’t know if you will even get a chance to resign him, or how the player will view you in the future, I would say that the return is t all that. Adjusting their revised trade for the lesser WAR player, it would equate to Alex Ramirez, Jeremiah Jackson and an A+ Ball pitcher. That doesn’t whet the appetite. I don’t think they are worth what we think and that the Yankees really coughed up a lung for Soto.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bill, to my knowledge, there has never been a lab leak outside of Wuhan.

    It seemed like Jake deGrom created his own lab, huh? He did pretty good with that lab, other than going beyond the stress limits of 100+.

    Gus, good analysis on what the Mets might get. Is that enough to scuttle their 2024 season, which it might? If you'd win 3 or 4 more games with Alonso than the next guy, maybe Alonso is enough to eke you into a Wild Card by 1 game. Me? I'd be more inclined which team might want Lumbering Pete towards the trade deadline if the Mets are returning to floundering.

    If a team is in an alley fight in late July and trading for Pete could help them win that fight, it would seem a premium payout could be had then.

    I saw someone write that with Manaea, the Mets are now at $314MM for the cap, roughly $80 million over, so trading Pete right now would help somewhat, but certainly not get the Mets there.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mack, Megill's first 6 weeks plus last 6 weeks were strong, and the middle 12 weeks were a nightmare. Was all of the nightmare period due to being hurt? If he can avoid being hurt, how good could he be? But can he avoid being hurt?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I’m a believer in Megill. As Tom said, he was clearly hurt mid-year, but when healthy the guy throws as hard or harder than any of our starters (or most starters in MLB) with a very long stride to the plate, and has flashed dominance at times. Hoping he can stay healthy and put it all together. And I think he’ll get the chance, since I’m predicting that the Mets go with a 6-man rotation for much of the season, which should help Senga, Sevarino, and Quintana, and will give them a chance, during the season, to audition a number of the guys they’re hoping may make their rotation in ‘25 and beyond.

    ReplyDelete
  9. You all make a strong case for both Pete and Ty

    I too make a strong case... for a walker and bed pans

    Still

    I will continue to focus this team to make the World Series in 2026

    Megill will never get the team there and, if played correctly Stearns can get more for Pete than he did for either Max or Vetlander.

    A healthy Alondo to a playoff contender for dribble

    What you talking about Willis?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mack, speaking of Willis, if the Mets do trade Pete, why not try to coax 41 year old Dontrelle Willis out of retirement and play him at first base?

    In his last year in the majors, he was .387/.645/.1.032, and fanned just once every 8 times up. He could throw an inning or two in a pinch, too.

    Or, at least, bring him in as batting coach.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tom you mentioned Wuhan and it made me think don't they have bats in the Wuhan lab? I wonder if they would help our hitters can't hurt right. I think this years trade deadline will be much more exciting for us than the entire off season has been.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Gary, those bats provide the power for long drives to land in the belfry.

    This will be a churning franchise. Hopefully, it will end up with Orioles youth and quality before too long.

    ReplyDelete