Tom Brennan: Megill Optimism; & Most Favored Team Status

Tylor Megill 

Tylor Megill had a challenging 2023 season, even though he finished above .500 at 9-8.

He started the season strong, stepping in when Verlander began collecting huge paychecks while on the IL. Megill's first 9 starts, he was solid in 7 of the 9 and was 5-2, 3.88.  Nothing wrong with that.

Then he had a few real late May stinkers. Then June arrived, and he was hurting - he had 2 decent starts and 2 really bad starts - and he was off to the IL.

He spent some weeks in AAA rehab and was results-wise, just terrible there...27 innings, 26 runs, 1.70 WHIP, an inexplicably low 14 strikeouts against 123 batters. Compare that to 2021, when he fanned 59 of 164 hitters in the minors. Something was clearly wrong.  

Apparently, part of it was working on his mechanics to lessen the chance of injury, and slowly ramping his velocity back up, making him temporarily more hittable. 

Then they traded JV and Max, and ready or not, Megill came back.  

He faced two teams that won about 205 games last year and got shellacked by those teams - Baltimore and Atlanta.

Then seemed healthy again, with 8 outings totaling 45 innings with a 3.00 ERA.

I read in SouthJersey.com that he had been working with Senga on adding a splitter, apparently an easy pitch for Megill to throw given the size of his hands.  

When he used it a number of times at the end of the 2023 season, it worked well for him, making him a four pitch pitcher (fastball, slider, change, splitter).

In summary, I think his deep trough from late May to early August was injury-related, and that before and after that injury-related mid-season swoon, he was (to put it simply) good.

Given that, I believe he is poised, if he stays healthy, to have a strong 2024 as a fifth starter.  Give him 30 starts and he'll go 12-9, 3.75. 

But Stearns and Mendoza have to believe it, not me. 

My guess is they are not as much "believers," since a 2 year deal was agreed to by Sean Manaea shortly after I wrote this article.  Up to Megill to force them to believe by upping his game.

MOST FAVORED TEAM STATUS

"I am blessed and highly favored."

Most Favored Nation Status is defined thusly, per the internet:

"Most favored nation refers to a status conferred by a clause in which a country promises that it will treat another country as well as it treats any other country that receives preferential treatment. Most favored nation clauses are frequently included in bilateral investment treaties."

That is not an exact parallel to what I am about to write, but in baseball, there is a de facto Most Favored Team Status.

The Dodgers have that status; the Mets do not.

Teoscar Hernandez is a prime example of what an advantage a juggernaut "most favored team" like the Dodgers has.

He hit well in 2022, but fanned a whopping 211 times in 160 games.  Uhh-ohh. Sounds like early onset Chris Davis Syndrome to me, as his Ks per game have been climbing since 2021.

So...he badly wants to play for the World Series-favored juggernaut and agrees to a $23.5 million ONE YEAR DEAL with LAD, with a third of the dough deferred.  

A team-friendly deal that only a Most Favored Team might be able to strike. 

He'll probably thrive in 2024. Win a World Series, too.

Dodgers get that favorable Teoscar deal, without signing him for what might well be his decline years after 2024.

If he signed with the far less favored ("Most Highly Unfavored"?) Mets? 

He'd likely have accepted nothing less than 4 years, $90 million. 

His thinking might have been: "Take it or leave it, Mets.  I'm giving up my chance at winning a World Series if I sign with you instead of LAD, so you must overpay me for my services." 

For which the Mets, if they held their noses and did so, likely would have gotten one pressure-filled, playoffs-missed mediocre season in 2024 from Teoscar, with probably 230 Ks, and 3 subsequent declining albatross seasons while checked in at the Luxury Tax Hell Hotel.

You want Most Favored Team status?  

Somehow, turn this Mets franchise into a deep-into-the-playoffs team that has the chance to stay in that mode for years to come, and players will lust after signing team-favorable, cap-favorable deals with you.

Which is why Mr. Stearns is no doubt wishfully praying for the Mets' soon-to-be rookies being very good - and very cheap - in 2025. 

Most long term high dollar Mets contracts have come back to bite them.  And that really bites, and is a precursor to furthering the team's decades-long franchise malaise.

And my guess is the Mets' reputation to prospective star players is "sucks most of the time, and the rest of the time, finds a way to snatch success out of the jaws of victory."

For the Mets, "great" prospects need to quickly morph into great major leaguers for the team to begin to aspire to most favored team status.