I thought I'd do an updated retrospective on the truncated 2020 draft:
1) How Mets kiddies drafted in rounds 1 thru 5 panned out, and
2) Which (if any) of all those Mets' picks actually made it to the dance.
Answer to question # 2?
None of the 5 draftees have made the majors. Yet.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, though?
He was their first rounder and seems to be a great Mets pick.
That pick alone made this a strong 5 round Mets draft.
Crow is n the cusp on major league starter play - but wait!
With THE CUBS?
How did that happen? Oh, yeah, I remember now...
He morphed into two short, fruitless 2021 season months of Javier Baez, that's how, in a poorly considered trade deadline acquisition to hopefully kick-start a floundering Mets team. Most of us gave the trade two thumbs way down.
So did Baez, in point of fact.
Baez has played 2 subsequent seasons with Detroit in 2022 and 2023 and put up a dastardly .273 OBP over that span.
In a flash, it was bye, bye, NY Mets Baez.
And goodbye, Super Crow.
You only need to know that the Crow is now the Cubs’ # 1 prospect to understand what a colossal blunder that trade was.
I anticipate this Crow figuratively pooping on the Mets' heads many times in the future.
And here is how baseball economics work:
The Mets signed what (at least for 2024) will be a similarly productive (to Crow) Harrison Bader for $10.5 million. Pete will cost the Cubs nearly $10 million less...and $20 million less when luxury taxes are considered.
Anyway...I depress...err...I mean, I digress. Let's move on.
In the 2nd round, the Mets gambled mightily with JT Ginn, who looked like a top 10 first round pick until his elbow needed TJS prior to the draft. The Mets turned him (via trade) into a fine 2022 year of Chris Bassitt, and so far, that trade has fared well for the Mets, since Ginn has under-performed and dealt with further injuries. He was 1-3, 7.43 ERA in 27 innings in 2023 and is currently listed as the As’ 18th prospect.
If he is 18th, that seems far from a sure thing. Perhaps Ginn would have been a good pick had he not gotten reinjured. Right now, his MLB career success will likely fall some where between JT Realmuto and JT Schwartz. Moving on...
2nd round comp pick OF Isaiah Greene went from the Mets to the Indians as a piece in the Lindor trade. The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball, and the now-22 year old in 183 at career bats and has hit .180. ONE EIGHTY?
Greene is not in the Guardians’ Top 30, so the pick quality-wise has been a bust - at least so far. But it's not over until the fat lady gets released.
3rd round Anthony Walters was a cheap pick, not a real 3rd rounder, to also save money to be applied towards the JT Ginn signing.
The cheaply signed Walters was a Fosbury Flopper, hitting .156 in 35 games, and the Mets released him. Still, a bust pick. Even if you selected Walters under slot, there were only 5 rounds that season, you need to pick better there.
(Note: Per Wikipedia, the Fosbury flop is a jumping style used in the track and field sport of high jump. It was popularized and perfected by American athlete Dick Fosbury, whose gold medal in the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City brought it to the world's attention.)
After all, a quality player named Spencer Strider was selected in the FOURTH round of 2020 by the Braves, with a bonus of $451,000.
All he's done on the major league level for the Mets' arch enemies is pitch 321 innings, fan 483, and win 32 of 42 decisions (32-10).
BRODY VW BADLY BLEW IT HERE!
Also, a FAST-FORWARD consequence:
Do the Mets later feel compelled to sign Justin Verlander to an obscenely costly deal if they had drafted and later had Spencer Strider as their #1 starter already? Methinks not. Had they drafted Strider, half the Mets team's current cap woes would be gone.
And Strider on the Mets? And not the Braves? The Mets would have easily won the division in 2022, and the two franchises currently would be much more equal in talent.
Maybe a Yamamoto looks more seriously at a Mets team that can win and where he sees a staff with four guys like Senga, Strider, Edwin and himself as being a superior rotation.
Oh, well, the Mets oh-so rarely blunder, so what are you gonna do, right?
And, to echo the let-it-slide comments of others, many other teams also missed out on Strider. The old "other teams were dumb, too" excuse.
Funny, the Braves don't need to fall back on the "dumb" excuse, because THEY didn't miss out.
4th round Mets pick, C Matt Dyer, wasn't hitting much when the Mets included him in the Rich Hill trade.
Those Rays at first seemed to be geniuses; after the trade, in 27 games, Dyer hit a blistering, Piazza-like .336/.383/.598 in 2021. But then Dyer had a mediocre 2022, and was hurt much of 2023, with just 59 at bats. 36 of those ABs were in AA, where he fanned 20 times, and is unranked in Tampa’s top 30, so he also must be a bust pick.
5th round reliever, forkball righty Eric Orze.
In 2021, I wrote that Orze “made it all the way to Syracuse in his debut (2021) season. 3-2, 3.21 in 33 games, a 1.07 WHIP, and 62 Ks vs. 13 BBs in 47.2 IP, in 9 AAA outings, with a 2.61 ERA. Sounds like a guy who should be expected to help the Mets' pen in 2022.”
Problem is, Orze had a number of bad relief outings in 2022 and 2023. That ETA of 2022 turned out to be a pipe dream.
Orze did, however, finish super-strong in September 2023 (9 IP, 2 hits, 18 Ks in AAA), so we’ll see if that September brilliance suddenly and permanently up-ticked him - or not - before declaring what sort of pick he is (bust or blessing). 2024 will reveal all. May he be known as the Wizard of Orze coming out of the Mets bullpen.
All that being said, I (sob) miss the Crow. Caw, Caw!
And I sure wish we'd taken Mr. Mustache, Spencer Strider.
My fear? Crow will be picking at the Mets' carcass in a few years. Ouch.
Strider already is.
Simple question?
Other than borrowing Baez for 2 months and getting Chris Bassitt for a year in the Ginn trade, how has this draft helped the Mets in terms of player restocking? Not at all.
Next post-mortem? 2021's NY Mets Draft.
But....just $10 million left to spend?
That won't get you...
JD MARTINEZ (who is far better than JD Davis).
or
Justin Turner (a JT who hits like JT Realmuto).
But...
It will get you a few vital bullpen pieces.
Even with Edwin Diaz back, the bullpen right now feels like a "C".
Add two GOOD pen arms now and turn that into a "B".
And hope that is enough before Lavender and Gervase are needed.
...WELL...I THOUGHT I WAS DONE, BUT...
The Mets just signed a pitcher with an .800 MLB winning %.
YACKSEL RIOS - 30 year old righty.
8-2, 6.32 ERA lifetime, slightly under 100 MLB innings.
Minor league deal.
So, c'mon, people...let's yack it up a bit for Yacksel Ruiz.
The only guy on the Mets with an .800 win %.
Yack, yack, yack, Yacksel.
ReplyDeleteQuestion
ReplyDeleteIf a team signs a player and puts him n the 40, can they cut that player before opening day and get that 40 man slot back?
Good question - I do not see why not. It would seem overly restrictive to not allow that.
ReplyDeleteSo...I'd not be surprised to see some further movement regarding the 40 man roster regarding guys who've been recently added to it.
I normally don't listen to interviews - just me - but heard Severino and Bader. Severino wanted the pressure of NY, which is partly why he stayed. And Bader was very impressive...articulate, clear-thinking, unafraid to self-evaluate and course-correct, and seems like a real fighter when the games start, all in to win.
The Yanks' Alex Verdugo meanwhile was ripped by Jonathan Papelbon for talking down the Red Sox. It really was more that he was talking up the Yankees and what he said implied it was lacking with the Red Sox. Papelbon no doubt would have drilled him if he was still pitching. 100%.
Yeah, in 6 years of ML experience, Yak has an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.566.
ReplyDeleteWhere are they even finding this shit? Clearly they've reached the bottom of the dumpster.
What can they possibly think this guy can do for them? Is the "PITCHING LAB" actually
a magic wand?
Look, I understand what the Mets are doing. And I understand why they are doing it.
But I HATE it. Their idea of being competitive must be: We'll put and mediocre team out there every day, and they'll try their best.
Lucky for me, living in northern VA, I am also an Orioles fan in the AL, and that's what I'll be watching this year. Pundits are right, Citifield will be a cemetery, & the Mets will be a 3rd or 4th place team. Hard to believe Steve Cohen has come to this.
The Mets will surprise in 2024
ReplyDeleteThey already have
DeleteTHIS is the surprise
Yacksel Ruiz? Last 82 MLB innings, 75 runs allowed. THAT is the definition of ugly. But...his first 16 innings several years ago weren't bad.
ReplyDeleteNickel, if I lived close to Baltimore, I'd switch allegiance. Happy days have arrived in Md.
ReplyDeleteGood morning. Nickel, it was a minor league contract and he throws 99. Let Syracuse deal with him.
ReplyDeleteMack, you can designate people for assignment at any time and not worry about paying them, unless you gave them a guaranteed contract. Meaning, if you sign Kevin Plawecki to a $2MM deal, if you cut him it’s on you. But, if a player is pre-arb, he doesn’t get a guaranteed contract, so release one of these projects they signed, they aren’t paying him any more.
That's what I thought
DeleteThanks for confirming this
"Tom Brennan said... Nickel, if I lived close to Baltimore, I'd switch allegiance. Happy days have arrived in Md."
ReplyDeleteWhen I moved down here in 1979, there were no Nationals...the birds were the only team around. When they won in 1983, it was a hoot. I took my kids to Camden Yard to see baseball. If the O's were playing the Mets, I had on a Mets cap and a Os shirt, and people would ask: What are you? I would answer: In hog heaven.
BTW being a Fed. Agent at a desk job in D.C., and living next to a battlefield in No. Va was so much easier than commuting from L.I. to work the streets of Manhattan as a Fed.
But it took the Os a dozen years at the bottom, after Ripken retired, to get the draft picks that created their current team...we suffered a long time with their cheap, old owner.
Nickel, interesting. When I look back, I can't believe I commuted for so many years into Manhattan from Nassau and (later) Suffolk. I cringe when I think of ever getting on the LIRR or subway, something I've only done a handful of times after 2019.
ReplyDeleteI think the Mets have a ton of young players in the minors, and the future is brighter than we might first think.
I had to pay for the LIRR AND subway, both ways, to get to and from work. $$$ youch!
ReplyDeleteThe future may be bright, but I'm old.
Nickel, old? That seems to be a common happenstance around here.
ReplyDeleteI was fortunate in my last job, in that it was close enough (1 mile) to Penn that I saved on the subway most years.
I also had pre-tax money set aside from my pay to reduce the cost. When I first took the LIRR from Bellerose, the monthly rate was about $40. When I retired, commuting from Sayville, it was nearly 10 times that.
The Montauk line double deckers I took the last several years spoiled me. I used to go on the Ronkonkoma cattle car line, where almost all seats (except for the ones next to obese people) were taken. Five narrow seats across. The double deckers, with just 4 seats across in the same width trains, higher quality seating, and generally less crowded cars, were heaven by comparison. Like the difference between flying coach and first class.
But the thought of taking the LIRR now? More hell than heaven.
My commute from Franklin Lakes to NYC and later to Greenwich, CT does not bring back fond memories.
ReplyDeleteTom...did you ride the main line in and go through New Hyde Park where the Whistle Stop Bar
ReplyDeletewas across from the station? That's where I lived. In the early 70s my monthly LIRR pass cost $90 per month. Then the subway was $1.25 per ride.
"MASSAPEQUA, MASSAPEQUA PARK, YAPANK, EAST YAPANK, AND SPEONK!"
And Ray, the subways have had 2 derailments in the last week. That really helps the schedule.
ReplyDeleteNo snow this year yet, but I remember working at Citibank on Wall St in the early 80s. Blizzard starting up midday. Left the office, about an inch of snow.
Left Penn on time, and windows were frozen over, couldn't see out. A delayed ride to western Suffolk, got out, and there was 10 inches on the ground. Man, I do not miss snow commutes.
Around 15 years later, my wife and I went down to South Carolina for 4-5 days, where it rained and was 35 degrees.
In NY, it was colder and a blizzard dumped 3 feet. We all got two sick days, including me who was on vacation and not in the snow. That is a fond memory. My favorite kind of snow days.
All trains change at Jamaica.
ReplyDeleteNickel, Jamaica could be a LIRR nightmare, but a few of those double deckers I took bypassed Jamaica, much to my delight. One was the ultimate, a summer train they ran all year...4:30 PM Hunters Point directly to Babylon, then the next three stops were ferry towns: Bay shore, Sayville, and Patchogue...on its way to Montauk. THAT was the ultimate train. It was usually less than half full - except on summer Fridays, when it was a sardine can filled with vacationers and their luggage.
ReplyDeleteA buddy and I once drove to to Montauk Pt. and back in a convertible, and I never needed to be in one again between, the wind burn and sun burn...cured me for life.
ReplyDeleteI used to go to Lake Ronkonkoma as a kid. Now I understand it's just a toxic swamp hole...saw photos online. Wow...memories and changing time, eh?
I do miss Shea and going to Islander's games...Belmont was practically in my back yard.
I was an Isles season ticket holder in the 70s.
Nickel, I grew up in Bellerose (Queens) and used to walk over to the Floral Park (Nassau) school adjacent to Belmont to casually play baseball there. One year, on the date of the Belmont Stakes, there were tens of thousands cheering. It was about 250 feet down the right field line, where behind a tall fence was a house. At the crescendo, I took one off brother Bob over the fence...and over the house. Nothing like having more than 50,000 cheer your "tape measure job."
ReplyDeleteI was there when Secretariat won the triple crown...and Marlboro Cup...Seattle Slew also. I have the winning tickets on the wall in my sports memorabilia/poker room down the basement along w paddock photos, etc. I went to the Belmont Stakes every year for 5-6 years back then...Breakfast at Belmont during the week before the race too.
ReplyDeleteSorry I'll never get to Isles UBS arena there.
I used to go to the Floral Park and Bellerose movie theaters on Jericho Typk heading west out of New Hyde Park which is in Nassau at the city line with Queens.
ReplyDeleteOf course, if I wanted to avoid the cost of the LIRR, I could stand on a bus from the city line all the way to Jamaica. Then take the E train from one end of the line to the other at Chambers St., the WTC, and walk to Federal Plaza. But the subway would get packed and I got tired of people actually standing between my legs while I tried to ignore them by sleeping. And my GTO kept getting dinged by shopping carts where I had to park. The best way to save on commuting was for the months I was out of the country, like taking photos in the USSR under diplomatic cover...I got to see the Bolshoi Ballet perform in the Kremlin, visited Lenin in his tomb (what % plastic & what % organic...no one knows), and loved Odessa on the Black Sea (God knows what’s left of it now).
ReplyDeleteNickel, I had the same deal. I commuted on the Q36 or Q1 from Bellerose to 179th St, then the E of F cattle car train. I worked at 43 and Lex for 4 years, and that made sense, since the LIRR needed to be followed by a shuttle to get to Grand Central, saving no time. Once I started working downtown in 1981, though, I switched to the LIRR to save 45 minutes each way, 75 minutes rather than 2 hours.
ReplyDeleteSo many Long Islanders have 2 hour each-way commutes, and you tell that to people living elsewhere, and they think you're nuts to do it. And...they were right.
The Russia gig sounded interesting.
I switched to LIRR for the exact same reason...time. But ultimately, another Fed and I rented
ReplyDeletethe top 2 floors of a Victorian house in Westfield, NJ, up the street from the train station. I would hop on the Jersey Central to Newark, an take the PATH train right into the basement of the WTC. That station was later bombed and collapsed in the first attempt to bring down WTC. A couple of years later, when my wife and I relocated to VA, I could drive to work. Can't say where, but on paper, I was the EPA...LOL.
The USSR gig included my scheduled departure, which, because of Easter Europe being buried in pea soup fog, ended with me dumped over the border in Bratislava (now Slovakia). I spent half the night on a jammed train, reminiscent of Dr Zhivago, standing between 2 cars. The rest of the night, I slept on a coffee table in the Prague Airport, which was closed. I awoke to a breakfast of salami sandwich and beer courtesy of the Czech Gov't. For 3 more days of pea soup
could not fly out and the Czechs kept issuing me temp. visas, putting me in hotels w food. One night there was no power and everyone in the hotel was walking around w candles. Finally flew home where my family had no idea where I was for 5+ days. Good times.
I didn't set foot in NYC again for 30 years, but when we did, staying in a Times Square hotel, with another couple, we got Bin Laden that night, and Times Sq. was a party the next morning.
I enjoyed growing up on L.I. and there are things I miss...in NHP (Umberto's Pizzeria...NY Giants fav pizza every Fri.). Everyone I know who has ever had it considers it the standard by which all pizza in compared...for life. I was there, age 16, when it opened in 1965, end still feel that way. I last had it in 1997, when my Mom was still there.