Tom Brennan - Mets’ 2021 Draft; Is Mets Pen All That Bad? & Bickford Bucks

 

Allow me to take an updated look at the 2021 draft.

Did the draftees do well overall?  Let’s figure that out.

We know the team's # 1 pick, Kumar Rocker, was not signed.  He’s struggled since he was drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2022. TJ surgery and all. He is now listed as the Rangers’ 9th prospect.

The Mets drafted Kevin Parada in 2022 after not signing Kumar.

Rounds 2 thru 20 followed, and all of them signed.

Let's get rolling:

2nd round, P Calvin Ziegler - bone chip and leg issue limited him to one inning in 2023, but it was a thing of beauty…3 up, 3 down, all Ks. Still very young, let’s see if there is major excitement about Ziegler in 2024. Me? I’ll have major excitement if he’s healthy. Kidding aside, I expect a big year out of the 21 year old in 2024. Career, so far, just 48 IP, 73 Ks, 4.34 ERA.

3rd round, P Dominic Hamel - he turns 25 before the 2024 season starts, so it is time to get off the pot and get to Queens by late 2024. Shaky early on in 2023, but finished really strong in AA. 160 Ks in 124 innings in 2024, and 312 in 246 career innings, makes me believe he was a very good 3rd round pick for a pitching-starved team.

4th round, 1B JT Schwartz - lefty 6’4” hitter hits well, but needs more power to be a viable big leaguer. JT did a good job driving in runs, but injuries have limited his 3 year pro career to just 814 at bats, during which he hit 12 HRs and drove in 121. He needs a HUGE 2024 as a 24 year old to up his value. Right now, he is nothing more than a Jayce Boyd clone.

5th round, P Christian Scott - 22 year old 6'4" righty had a breakthrough 2024 in AA, and needs to repeat that in 2024 in AAA to be a rotation candidate for the Mets. Right now, that looks likely - a future career as a back-end MLB starter.

6th round, P Carson Seymour - 6'6" righty got included in the Darin Ruf trade. He is only their 23rd prospect, so a reasonable pick for the 6th round.

7th round, SS Kevin Kendall - lefty bat excelled for St Lucie Mets initially, but has been both unimpressive and hurt a lot in 2022-23. Seems like a typical Mets filler pick. Grab a toolsy guy in this round instead next time.

8th round, 6'5" righty P Mike Vasil - struggled a lot in the automatic strike AAA in 2023, not getting high fastballs called for strikes. He still ought to pitch for the Mets in 2024, making this a fine 8th round pick.

9th round, 6'5" P Levi David - DNP.  Don't know why. Bust pick.

10th round, lefty Keyshawn Askew - great FCL debut, 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 14 Ks, 2-0.  Traded to the Rays, a solid 2023 in A and AA, at 3.97 and 130 Ks in 97 IP. Not in Rats’ top 30, but still a very good 10th round pick.

11th round, S/H OF Rowdey Jordan - has done OK in the minors so far. Possible future MLB back up OF, so this seems like a good 11th round pick.

12th round, OF Jack Wold - last played in 2022. 

13th round, IF/OF Matt Rudick - best player in 2023 in the Eastern League through early June in 2023, then hurt. A fine pick, possible Mets 2024 call up if he can stay healthy in 2024.

14th round, P Nate Lavender -  6'2" lefty, a great 14th round pick, a very solid AA/AAA reliever in 2023. Most likely will pitch a lot in Mets pen in 2024.

15th rounder, 5'7" IF Wyatt Young - great 2021 debut in FCL (.370), a very fine 2022 in AA and AAA, then a regression year in 2024.  Still a fine pick in the 15th round, wherther he makes the majors or not.

16th rounder, righty P Trey McLaughlin - 6.10 FCL ERA, with 19 Ks in 20.2 IP and a 1.31 WHIP.  Lots of innings, relatively speaking.

17th rounder, lefty P Nick Zwack - he also went in the Ruf trade, and has had a Ruf time of it after the trade.

18th rounder, P Koby Kubichek - a very sold relief performance in 2022, slippage in 2023 against tougher competition. 

19th rounder, C Drake Osborn - sub-.200 minors hitter with some pop.

20th rounder, IF Justin Guerrera - struck his way out of the minors quickly.

Overall, a seemingly fine 2021 draft, except for that first round. It could have been any of these 3 excellent guys who went just after the Mets pick, Brady House, Andrew Painter, or Harry Ford. A risky first round Kumar move by the Mets, chasing the shiny object, really put a damper on things.

HOW BAD IS THE METS' BULLPEN RIGHT NOW? THAT DEPENDS.

I guess the answer is "that depends."

Reese yesterday looked with dissatisfaction at the bullpen in what I consider a narrow sense, in that he did not consider 4 individuals.

First, the 5 starters appear to be Senga, Severino, Houser, Quintana, and Manaea.

Everyone else, unless one (or heaven forbid, more than one gets hurt in spring training), will not be among the teams 5 season-opening starters.

If those 5 somehow hold up through spring training and four off days in their March/April schedule of games, 3 pen arms not considered by Reese include Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Nate Lavender.

Tyler (despite his intense mid-season struggles in 2023) and up-and-down Joey, combined to go 13-8 for a 75 win Mets team, so the Mets' record otherwise was 62-79.  So, I give that duo more credit than the average bear.  Why couldn't they be used in long relief to keep them stretched out, so they'd be ready to start on short notice?  Tug McGraw did it in 1969...4 starts, 21 innings, and 38 relief outings. So can they.

And they are better than some of the cheap pen arms they acquired this off season, hands-down.

The third guy? Nate Lavender in AA last year fanned 19 in 10 innings and had a 1.74 ERA. He was quickly promoted to AAA, in a league where the average ERA exceeded 5.00, and there he threw 44 innings, fanned 67, and had a 3.27 ERA.  Tons of Ks. And his AAA ERA was only that high due to one early July outing where in 2 innings he allowed 4 of the 16 earned runs he gave up in AAA.  

His ERA in his other 34 AAA innings in 2023? 2.57, half the league's ERA.

So...why wouldn't he be ready on opening day?  

The fourth guy?  David Peterson, when he returns.  If there is no room in the rotation when he is due to return around Memorial Day, it would be foolish to stick him in the minors, so by logical conclusion, he'd be in the bullpen.

Repeat after me...Megill, Lucchesi, and Peterson do not belong in the minors.  They are major leaguers.  Elite, no....major leaguers, yes.

Me? I think most of the cheap off-season pen arms acquired are quite iffy, so I'd still sign 2 more real ones.

But, if not, having an opening day pen of Edwin, Raley, Smith, Megill, Lucchesi, Lavender, perhaps Hartwig, and one or 2 of the newbies wouldn't have me dancing with glee, but wouldn't have me thinking they'd have the worst pen in baseball.  

Later in the year, my 6'10" guy Paul Gervase could well be ready.  

In A and AA in 2023, Gervase was 2.05 ERA, 57 innings, 96 Ks.  And...

Last 5 outings in AA in 2023, 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 17 Ks. Chew on that!

Still, acquiring 2 more real-and-ready-now pen arms now would make me and many other Metsies feel a whole lot more comfortable, especially since pen guys seem to get hurt a lot.  The unimaginable would be Edwin going down again (he claims to be 100% and 100% ready to go).

Two more good relievers would inject needed quality and a margin for error in the pen.   And help the Mets compete seriously for a Wild Card.

If the season unravels, trade them mid-season, and bring on Gervase.

Sometimes, I just get pissed...

The Mets offered Phil Bickford $815,000, but he wants $900,000, and they will head towards arbitration.

If I was the arbiter, I'd not need much time...PAY BICKFORD THE $900K!

What has he done in his MLB career so far?

181 career innings (a lot) in 179 outings (a lot), 204 Ks (fine), 11-8 (good), 4.43 ERA (decent), over 3+ seasons...

And in his last 14 outings, over the season's last 5 weeks, he allowed just 2 earned runs over 14 innings...and he's got a very live arm.

And the Mets offered him only $815K? Insulting, if you ask me.

Heck, man, the MLB minimum is $740,000.

After 3 full years of work, they want to offer him a mere $75,000 (10%) over the minimum? That gets me - I dunno - pissed.

C'mon, Steve and David, you can...and should...meet his very modest salary request of $900,000.

LASTLY...DON'T PANIC, WE'VE CLAIMED KRANICK

For those of you mourning the departure of Max Scherzer, the Mets claimed 26 year old RHSP Max Kranick, whom the Pirates had waived. Kranick returned from TJS in the latter portions of 2023 and pitched well in the high minors in several relief outings. He may be another arm to call up in a bullpen pinch. In 2022-23, he had a 5.56 MLB ERA in 44 innings.  Presumably, he is not a power arm, but he has hit 22 batters in 388 pro innings, which I like.

To clear roster space, the Mets DFA'd 29 year old hitter Cooper Hummel. We'll see what happens to Hummel from here on out, but his .166 MLB average in 199 at bats is not terrific, even by Mets' fringe position player standards.

These two players are part of what Dan Martin (writer for the NY Post) succinctly described as follows:

"The Mets’ offseason of underwhelming acquisitions continued Friday..."