Here's an updated retrospective on the 2018 draft.
1) How Mets kiddies drafted in rounds 1 thru 5 panned out, and
2) Which of all the 2018 Mets' picks actually made it to the dance.
I started this series at 2005 a year at a time towards 2021.
2005 thru 2017 have had articles done so far.
Today? The Mets' 2018 Draft
The Mets sucked in 2017, and weren't over the cap (the Wilpons never were) - thus, the Queens squad found themselves with the 6th overall pick. They grabbed power hitting OF Jarred Kelenic. Who was traded to - where else - Seattle, where Mets so often tend to go.
Kelenic's had a rough whiff-filled 2021 and 2022, then improved in 2023, only to get hurt. Steamers has him at 502 projected PAs in 2024, with 18 HR, 61 RBIs, and .237. If that is all he can muster, he would be a somewhat substandard 6th pick, albeit not a bust. He was the key piece to get us Edwin Diaz in a deal, so I'm not complaining. But...
Five picks after Kelenic, just as an FYI, Baltimore snatched Grayon Rodriguez, who was 7-4 with the O's in 2023.
Round 2 - Simeon Woods Richardson was also traded, alog with his maiden name(?), to the Blue Jays in the Li'l Marcus Stroman deal.
SWR and his power arm were rocketing northwards, but then he stunk, and missed some time, after May, as a Jay farmhand, then got traded mid-year to Minny. In 2023, he was 7-6, 4.91 with a 1.50 WHIP. and is only the Twins' 16th prospect now. Feels a little like former Mets prospect Marcos Molina to me. But he (still young) was good enough to use in a trade to get Stroman, so it was a good pick.
Round 3 - In an organization that seems to draft very short or very tall hardballers, the Mets grabbed Carlos Cortes here. He was drafted in the 20th round 2 seasons earlier, but declined. He played 112 games for South Carolina in college, hitting .274/.378/.528. Kind of a low college average. Compare to former Mets pitcher (briefly) Tyler Pill, who hit .323 in College and in 245 PAs in the minors hit .302, with just 35 Ks.
Cortes had a fine early portion of 2021 in AA, then got hurt, and has been mediocre since. .241/.255/.428 in the hitting-happy International League in 2023 was OK, but far from great. He had a strong August but was 5 for 54 in September and as of December 28, was just 10 for 15 with no extra base hits in winter ball.
Too many miscues early in his pro career as a 2B, so he was moved to the outfield, where he has done well in terms of outfield assists. He is ambidextrous throwing-wise and a switch hitter too.
Pick was fairly decent, but no major leaguer here, it seems.
Leaning towards a bust pick.
Interestingly, the next pick by another team in the draft was IF Owen Miller, who has 988 plate appearances in the majors, and this year hit a solid .261/.303/.371.
Round 4 - Adam Hill - big righty dude fanned 26 in 15 innings in Brooklyn in his draft debut year. They traded Hill to the Brewers from the Mets along with two other prospects for K-loving outfielder Keon Broxton.
Hill has since been released. Keon has stopped fanning because he's stopped playing.
Wrong Hill to climb. Bust pick.
The team the Mets can never catch, the Braves, drafted 2 picks later and nabbed Tristan Beck, who was 3-3, 3.92 with the Braves in 85 innings in 2023, with 30 relief outings and 3 starts.
Round 5 - Ryley Gilliam - at the start of his pro career, he came out of the bullpen gates guns-blazing, with 47 Ks in 28 innings in low A ball, then sputtered, pitched poorly for a bit, and then has disappeared. After 2019, he only threw 27 innings in AA in 2021, and posted a 9.88 ERA. Tommy John surgery April 2022 - will the now-27 year old (who turns 28 in August) resurface in 2024? That seems like a dicey prospect at best.
Hard to predict future injuries at draft time. Seemed like a great 5th round pick, until the injuries.
Of course, Josh Hader was a 19th round pick by Baltimore in 2012, so by comparison, the Gilliam pick was not so good.
After Round 5, in Round 8, towering Tylor Megill was selected and has had good moments and bad moments with the Mets, but his 17-16, 4.72 record as an 8th rounder makes him a relatively great pick.
Tylor, please get Drysdale-mean in 2024, and see if that helps.
Oddly, his taller brother, 6'8" Trevor, has struggled to carve out a niche as a MLB reliever. He seems to have finally done so in 2023, fanning 52 in 34 innings for the Brewers, and going 1-0, 3.63.
MAYBE Tylor's career success eventually comes out of the Mets' bullpen. Or...maybe he has a break through season as a starter in 2024.
Two other 2018 hopefuls were:
a) 40th rounder Brian Metoyer (who had his ups and downs vs. advanced hitters in the AFL after 2021, but then missed all but 7 innings of 2022, and all of 2023, likely due to TJ surgery, so we'll see how it goes in 2024 for the also-now 27 year old Metoyer) and
b) 9th rounder Bryce Montes de Oca. Oca was living in the 100+ velocity range, and had fanned 47 in his last 24 minor league innings before his brief, shaky, but tantalizing Mets debut in 2022, but he had to have his second TJ surgery in March 2023 - I imagine should be back mid-2024 if all goes well.
My brother and i wondered a bit: if guy like Bryce MDO, who threw as hot as 103 MPH with movement, should be trying to learn to throw lefty during his recovery hiatus. Could he have learned to throw, say, 98 as a lefty, if his right wing didn't heal right? A harnessed 98 MPH lefty could make a good living in major league baseball. Chances he tried that are likely 0%.
Moving into Leo DiCaprio's favorite place, the Land of Masks:
Nick Meyer (6th round) recently was DFA'd. Will he resurface as a light-hitting catcher?
24th round catcher Hayden Senger hit an OK .240 in 2022, but had a weak .188 offensive year in AA in 2023. Don't see much hope there.
There's always a catch with weak-hitting catchers, it seems. Few of them can become the next Tomas Nido or Patrick Mazeika.
Bottom line:
Not much of value garnered by the Mets in the 2018 draft.
Thank heavens for that 8th round pick, Big, Bad Tylor Megill.
Maybe fellow giant Bryce Montes de Oca could resurface, too.
Next up?
Since I can't write about the Mets acquiring Soto, Ohtani, or Yamamoto, you'll have to settle on:
Tom's retrospective on the 2019 draft.
I need to write about the Cortes pick. Drafted three times by Omar Minaya and while I applaud Minaya’s belief in the young man, this was a wasted pick - and I felt that way immediately. An ambidextrous thrower who sucked with both arms; he didn’t play any position too well, but kind of stood at LF and 2B; he didn’t have any speed but was a short compact swing possible power bat.
ReplyDeleteI couldn’t understand the kid as a 20th rounder and couldn’t understand him as the Mets kept chasing him. Whatever.
If Cortes is a switch hitter, that must have just happened. He was always strictly a lefty bat.
DeleteGus, Cortes falls into that 3rd / 4th round draft disaster zone, which over those several years included the likes of many such non-entities as Blake Tiberi, LJ Mazzilli, Michael Paez, and Branden Kaupe. Dreadful evaluators of talent to select in that period. I wonder if other teams thought, "they picked who?" and laughed at the Mets.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the Mets are showing some interest in some free agents and might do something to sign someone someday.
ReplyDeleteGus, I wrote an article prior to 2022 indicating that Cortes ought to ditch the switch hitting. He was very weak as a right handed hitter. But he improved, so I am out of suggestions for him.
ReplyDeleteThey've been laughing at us since that 80's run a very long time ago and nothing has happened since to really change that narrative. Hopefully now things are going to change.
ReplyDeleteGary, if we'd won one or 2 more WS in the mid-80s, and won in 2015 against a KC Royal team that was hot more than good, while the Mets were more good than lucky, we'd be less antsy.
ReplyDelete37 years and counting is a half-life.
Tom, the Royals were “resilient” to quote the entire MLB press coverage at that time; another word for “gritty” or talent handicapped. Three good relievers and as many good starters as Arizona had last year, they were ripe for the taking. But, they wanted it more than the Mets who looked star struck and just happy to be there. That truly was an opportunity. If only Cespedes catches the fly ball and the entire Mets lineup didn’t go cold. I won’t mention Duda’s arm, because he made the same crappy throw during the season the next year.
ReplyDeleteGus...yep, Duda and Cespedes were the Timo Perez award winners in 2015.
ReplyDeleteDuda's throw was spotted re-entering the solar system last week, but relax, it will be taken out with a laser when it is under 100 million miles away.