THERE'S A REAL FINANCIAL METS PLAN OUT THERE SOMEWHERE
I'll keep it short.
I think the real undisclosed plan is triggered by the following:
Stearns has convinced Cohen how damaging being so far above luxury tax thresholds the team is, for several years.
As I wrote the other day, Spotrac shows the Mets are paying roughly $65 million in salaries in 2024 (25% of the 2024 cap) for departed players who left in 2022 and 2023, and $17 million more in 2025 for Verlander.
And penalties grow mighty severe when you've been in the luxury tax penalty box for years.
The Mets are way, way over the cap for 2024, too, and each time they add a Bader, or a starter, or a reliever, or perhaps a Turner, that gets worse.
So...I think the real plan is 2026.
By then, they should have a large number of quality players up from the minors who are cheap salary-wise. Hopefully playing with at least "baseball-average competence." And the cheapies help the team get under the cap that year, and reset the cap.
The carry-over $$ from departed players will be gone, and if the Mets have 12 competent players up from the minors making a total of $12-$15 million million, the hope would be that the rest of the team (comprised of several pricey stars and inexpensive veteran twilight-of-career types, could fit under the remaining $235 million of the cap for 2026.
Getting under the cap without demolishing the team in 2024 is frankly impossible. Despite efforts over the next 12 months to bend the budget curve downward, by selling off high contracts for more prospects, I think that $17 million Verlander overhang in 2025 (assuming that is an accurate number) will render the Mets unable to make the moves they'll want to make next off-season and also get under the cap.
They'll make the moves and still almost definitely exceed the cap. But hopefully by less.
I think the real fiscal reset plan is 2026. In 2026, to have six star players making $200 million. The rest making a total of $40 million.
Anyway, that's my guess as to the fiscal plan longer term.
Your thoughts? C'mon, make a new plan, Stan.
THE G MAN JOINS THE DIVISION CHAMPS
I think Daniel Vogelbach is a tubeless spare -- rough to ride every day, but gets the basics of the job done.
ReplyDeleteReese, anyone who signs that Michelin Dough Boy this offseason is in for a Goodyear in 2024.
ReplyDeleteSean Manaea? Sorry, but IMO, more dumpster diving. I wanted them to get this guy 2 years ago...but not now. With all the fancy front office talent evaluators they have hired, clearly, they are not going to throw enough additional money at 2024 to have much talent. Yeah, they need innings from somewhere, but the quality of the innings they are going to get is already suspect. Without locking up Alonso in the off-season, this is shaping up
ReplyDeleteexactly as the punt year that Billy Eppler described (and Cohen & Stearns later refuted) back at the 2023 trade deadline. I guess being competitive means having 26 bodies on the ML roster and 40 on the 40-man roster.
Nickel, Megill or Manaea? I go with the former.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Wilpons weren't so dumb...they never went a "nickel" over the salary cap. Total luxury taxes paid by Fred and Jeff? Zero.
My guess is the Mets are done with the rotation now and will move to the pen and possibly one great outfielder
ReplyDeleteManaea turns 32 in 3 weeks, and was 15-15, 4.75 the past two seasons for SDP and SFG, two decent pitchers' parks. I dunno. BB Ref has projected him at 7-7, 4.58 in 120 innings in 2024. Hopefully, he'll do better for $14 million.
ReplyDeleteSo, the rotation is now Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser and Manaea, with Megill on standby and Peterson too, when he returns?
Hopefully, Megill, if he goes out of the pen, can be a beast, or maybe he will beat Houser out and Houser heads to the penitentiary.
Since Manaea deal ends before 2026, it fits my 2026 is the year they go under the cap theory.
Over the past 3 years, Manaea allowed 68 HRs in 450 innings. LaGuardia may have to reroute their gametime arrivals and departures.
ReplyDeleteApparently a good fielder - 6 errors in 1002 innings, and has to be really tough on base stealers - just 35 steals against him. Compare to Syndergaard's 203 steals allowed in 940 innings.
ReplyDeleteThis is a reasonable signing and, other than the player option for ‘25, sticks with the apparent plan. Manea apparently added a new pitch during last season and pitched pretty well thereafter. It’ll be interesting to see what Heffner and the pitching lab can get out of him. It certainly shouldn’t be difficult to find spots for some of the AAA pitching prospects later in the season to come up and get a few turns. I know I’m in the minority, but I’m excited for this season. Hoping to see Alvarez blossom and a bunch of the kids come up and start to make their mark. After 35 years, we finally have a front office I can trust, even if this season isn’t going to end in late October.
ReplyDeleteSome of the "experts" note that Manea added some speed and a new pitch and was very solid the 2nd half of last year. That while risky he is the better sign than other options. I'm good with it with the cost and potential upside.
ReplyDeleteI think the Mets need to sign a solid DH and maybe a more reliable RP and they are probably done but we will see. They have 5 OF and I dont see them adding more there unless its a DH that can also do a little OF.
Its definitely going to be tough to get under the tax. Especially if they extend/resign Pete. Will they consider Soto? Will they try to lock in Alvarez to a guaranteed contract? While they have some promising pitching prospects they also have a TON of spots to fill. The entire rotation will be a FA either next year or the following and I doubt we are internally filling all 5 spots.
Adam and Dallas, you make me feel better about Manaea. My brother likes him, and he has an eye for pitchers. So, Bader and Manaea certainly solidify the team. Get a few pen arms and let's see if we can contend for a wild card.
ReplyDeleteWow .. a lot of content here in one article and 10 comments. I think Tom may have a point that 2026 is the plan, although even that may be difficult. The cost of pitching has undergone a huge spike in the last couple years.
ReplyDeleteWe had better hope that they manage the kids correctly and a few of them turn out to be good players.
I am also hopeful that the new pitching lab provides dividends for the young guys (and the not-so-young ones).
I am not worried about Guillorme with the Braves. While I always liked him as a player, I won't miss his stat-line.
I also won't miss Vogelbach. I don't have much interest in what happens to players after they leave the Mets.
As for Sean Manaea, I don't have an issue with this signing. I liked him when he was with the A's - he could be a pretty useful lefty #4 stater. Who knows, maybe the lab will turn him into a Cy Young contender???
What's left? Hopefully one more reliever - I am campaigning for either Hicks or Robertson (or both). I do not want to add a DH. Let's let Vientos get the at bats until he proves he can't do it. But adding a Martinez, Turner, or even Hernandez or Soler will just take at bats away from Baty and Vientos (or even worse, take MLB roster spots) and not provide any positional flexibility or late inning speed or defensive flexibility.
The Mets should bring back Robertson for the BP and let it be. I would have rather see Megill in the rotation than Manaea but lets see how the competition shapes up.
ReplyDeleteIf we now sign a DH we will learn nothing about Vientos and he has shown a lot of improvements in his second year at all levels he has played. Lets save 3B / DH for Baty and Vientos. He has been working out with Lindor in Puerto Rico so I expect that his glovework has improved.
I think the Mets are doing the right thing by not extending Pete Alonso right now. Lets see if his batting average comes up or stays close to the Mendoza line. If that turns out to be the case, the Mets are better off trying to steal Soto from the Yankees as Dallas suggested.
Another scenario to consider is if Vientos is given the DH spot and responds with a 25/30 hrs year?. Could he become the 1B going forward for a couple of years?
REESE / TOM
I would appreciate your opinions on what the Mets can get for Alonso in a trade right now. For the life of me I can't believe that he is only worth a prospect from 100 to 200 as suggested in a recent article. What's your take on this?
Viper, I think just a prospect from 100 to 200 is nonsense. Pete is a big HR guy, huge RBI guy, and would make an acquiring club's turnstiles turn rapidly. If we can't get a top 30 guy, or two top 50 guys, why do it?
ReplyDeleteMets Trade Rumors (MTR) noted that Manaea added a sweeper that made him much tougher the second half of the season. May he ride that into 2024.
ReplyDeleteMets reality? Also well stated by MTR: "Assuming they remain over the highest tax threshold all season, the club figures to pay $15.8MM in taxes on Manaea’s salary next season, meaning the club effectively figures to pay $29.8MM for the lefty’s services in 2024."
That's a lot of cabbage.
I've read that he now has a "sweeper", but I have no clue what that is.
DeleteTo me, the only sweeper on a ML team is the clubhouse guy pushing a broom.
Can anyone explain it better?
A slider with a large trajectory
DeletePete would hit 60 in Wrigley so whats that worth and how do they shape up prospect wise and we get PCA back. If they don't sign a real DH then we're really rebuilding not competing so lets just say so. Also I'll hopefully be 79 in 26' so SC/DS lets get this right please.
ReplyDeleteAlso based on "lets get under the luxury tax" they'll be no Soto under our tree next Christmas for sure.
ReplyDeleteManses,good signing?! Sneaky good. To good. Senga,Me.gee,,Manea,Quintana,Severino,Houser!
ReplyDeleteGents, Tom here, we are about to replicate 1969.
ReplyDeleteWow...a lot of optimism here for a team, that in the NL East, has a mediocre rotation, bullpen and lineup. Sorry to say.
ReplyDeleteSomeone has to be moved off the 40-man roster to make room for Manaea.
ReplyDeleteAny guesses. Any additional ML signings will require the same.
You can never have to much talent.it will work out.
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