Mike's Mets - On Prospects and Analytics

 

By Mike Steffanos

David Stearns has taken heat for moves he hasn't made this winter, but he is laying the groundwork for a transformational season.

The Mets organization has no history of being a player development juggernaut. There have been some good homegrown players over the years, even a few great ones. But there has never been a significant era in the Mets' existence fueled by a farm system continually delivering talent to the major league club. Over many decades, this has been a primary reason why the club has been unable to sustain winning.

Even so, it's not hard to look back in Mets history to see the value in a productive farm system. The Mets' last World Series winner in 1986 featured a ton of homegrown players. By far, the best farm production in Mets' history came in the first half of the 1980s. Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, Mookie Wilson, Lenny Dykstra, Wally Backman, Kevin Mitchell, Roger McDowell, Rick Aguilera, and Doug Sisk were all drafted and developed by the Mets. Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, and Jesse Orosco were acquired as minor leaguers and debuted with the Mets. Randy Myers, Kevin Elster, and Dave Magadan also played a few games for the Championship club, although their breakthrough as regulars came later.

Large-scale success in player development fueled the longest successful era for the Mets. From 1984 through 1990, the club averaged 95 wins per season. It seemed as if there was a foundation in place for sustained winning. However, the talent pipeline only produced for a scant few years, drying up considerably in the second half of the decade. It's no accident that the winning dried up shortly thereafter. In the 38 years that have passed since they last hoisted a trophy, we've never seen anything close to the infusion of young talent we witnessed in the early 1980s.

Why were the Mets unable to sustain the success of that early '80s farm system? A significant contributing factor is Fred Wilpon gaining control of the team. In 1980, Fred owned 1% of the Mets. When Doubleday Publishing sold the club after the 1986 season, Wilpon and Nelson Doubleday became 50-50 partners. Finally, in August 2002, Fred bought out Doubleday and became the sole owner of the club.

As Fred Wilpon's control grew, the club's fortunes declined. The Mets' success in the late '80s through 2002 was significantly less than their heyday, accumulating a mediocre .514 winning percentage. But things got worse in the period when Fred had sole control. From 2003 to 2020, their winning percentage was .491. In those 18 seasons, they only finished above .500 seven times. Despite witnessing the success fueled by the farm system in Frank Cashen's first seasons as GM, Wilpon never placed a priority on maximizing his club's talent pipeline. Investment there just didn't bring the instant gratification and praise for his ownership Fred craved.

The Mets developed some good ballplayers during the Wilpon era, even a handful of great ones, headed by David Wright, José Reyes, Jacob deGrom, and, for a brief, shining moment, Matt Harvey. But the Mets were never able to replicate the infusion of talent we saw in the early 80s. The consequences of this failure were a recurring theme over the ensuing decades of Wilpon's management.

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