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2/28/24

Reese Kaplan -- The Outfield Reserves Are Not Starter-Worthy


While most people feel that the starting 9 for the New York Mets is pretty much already decided, there are some questions regarding the bench and who will back up the regulars.  While Zack Short had a highlight reel defensive play a few days ago, it would take a miracle of sorts for him to dislodge Joey Wendle or supplement him as an extra infielder on the roster.  The same applies for Tomas Nido's quest to become a Mets backup player with Omar Narvaez (and his salary) shoving him far ahead on the depth chart.  

Where it gets a bit more flexible and interesting is in the area of reserve outfielders.  Given the roster projected right now you have Brandon Nimmo slated to play left field, Harrison Bader set for center field and Starling Marte in right.  Yes, you can question the wisdom of the expensive Bader acquisition but what he contributes defensively may make up for his offensive limitations.  No one is expecting major changes to take place with this trio.

However, as the Mets continue their preparatory work in Florida, outfielders D.J. Stewart, Trayce Thompson and Tyrone Taylor need to make their cases to the powers that be to ensure they come north with the team.  Of this trio, Tyrone Taylor is likely the strongest contender as he is a plus defensive player and has demonstrated during his major league career the ability to produce at a 20 HR rate with a modest .239 batting average.  While that doesn't sound like much, it's the combination of power and defense combined with a modest salary that make him pretty much a shoo-in to come north with his current and former boss from Milwaukee, David Stearns, having traded for him.

Everyone here is familiar with D.J. Stewart and for a hot month plus saw he could be a weapon in the middle of the batting order.  Unlike Taylor, D.J. is not known for what he can do with his glove and his running ability is offset by his substantial but not quite Vogelbach level of girth.  He's had part time player written for several seasons in Baltimore and now New York.  Despite the period in which he appeared to have become something of an offensive cog in the machine, he finished the year with a similar .244 batting average to what you would expect from Taylor and clubbed 11 HRs in just 160 ABs which is a pace for over 30 if he played a full season.  That .244 2023 season upped his career average to an unimpressive .220.  The power is for real but you have to wonder if he's essentially  at best Daniel Vogelbach lite (if not light).  We saw how poorly that worked out.  As a lefty swinger he could provide some pretty solid numbers against righty pitching but provides little else to make the case for him playing more regularly.

Non roster invitee Trayce Thompson has flashed power during his big league career but struggled even more than the others to get his batting average up to an acceptable number.  Now 32 years old, Thompson owns a career AVG of just .212.  Think of him as a right handed version of D.J. Stewart.  He also can produce 20 HR power over the course of a full season, but without any stolen base ability having swiped just 17 over 7 years of play, he's not really providing a lot if injury or slumps from the starters forced him to play for an extended period of time.  Coming off a sub-Mendoza season he has a long climb to force his way onto the roster despite his grand slam and 5 RBIs earlier this week.  

It would seem that the youngsters in camp wouldn't be a part of this equation as they need to spend more time playing regularly in AA and AAA.  However, there might be reserve outfielders available from other clubs via trade or roster squeezes that could make Stewart's or Thompson's desires to play in Queens go unfulfilled.  Then again, there are so many holes in the roster as it is right now in terms of starting and relief pitching as well as leaning heavily on a trio of offensive Baby Mets that they may just roll with the punches of who they already have in-house.


12 comments:

  1. Morning Reese

    I agree with you. The Mets reserve outfielders are not quality, but, if they were, they wouldn't be reserve outfielders. They would be either Mets starters or have signed lengthy contracts with other teams.

    This season, the Mets have Starlin Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and that new ex-Yank, Joe Biden (or somethin like dat).

    And let's not forget the currently projected starting second baseman, Jeff McNeil, can always be re-inserted if someone goes down.

    I always vote for defense first for reserve players.

    As for 2025, there are at least three top prospects that could be inserted here.

    As for the current and future outfield... I'm wearing flip-up shades.

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  2. It seems that to some extent David Stearns has made very little effort in the outfield, in the rotation and in the pen. The bench is very thin, though Wendle is a big step up from Guillorme.

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    1. I think the Mets never intended on bidding on any free agents other than Japanese starters.

      Past that, I think the plan was and is for 2025 and beyond

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  3. The plan will need time to unfold. No one is thrilled with the current team. It seems that consensus is for the Mets to win around 80 or 81 games. I think the way seasons go, you take those numbers and go plus or -10. So if everything goes right they could be a 90 win team that goes wrong they could be a 70 win team.

    Taylor is I think a fine 4th OF. Great defense, as in no errors ever. And as ever recall, in a season in which he was injured much of the early part of the season, he had a 560 slugging percentage of the last two months spanning about 150 plate appearances. I think TAYLOR is like Kevin, Pilar, except for superior, defensive player, and faster.

    With the bullpen, at least, there is a decent level of talent and depth, and it seems that Sterns was focusing on trying to grab guys on the cheap, who were hard throwers, but had not the best career records or recent records. Yep, I think if you, had someone compare all major league, ball, pens, this one would at least come in at average, and perhaps better.

    The starters? It all depends on Health. How soon will Fuji and Peterson make it back? And, will it be in time to keep the season from capsizing?

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  4. for 2024 I agree that Taylor is a fine 4th outfielder. I also think that Gilbert is first man up assuming he hits the ground running in AAA. Jett Williams could make a case to crack the roster this year as well. having a bit of a thin outfield could help provide paths to the majors for these two (hopefully) future building blocks.

    I'm fine with sterns strategy for this year in terms of where the team is, leaving room for kids to audition and see what he has when he reloads in 2025. My only thing I would do at this point if I was GM for the day is see if I can sign Montgomery. Not because of Senga's injury as much as the fact that I think if you can sign a durable, NY proven veteran, who is a lefty and doesn't have a QO attached to him you should go for it given how big of a question mark the rotation is for next year. This would be a strong 2/3 locked in for the next several years and one less spot to fill on next years FA market.

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  5. I'd prefer defense and have Stewart optioned to AAA. Plus anyway maybe it's going to be Drew Gilbert time if one of the starters inevitably........well you know..

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  6. Ernest, I am against Trayce Thompson being considered. Sure, he had a slam and 5 RBIs. But he has hit .200 after 2015 and had a tremendous K rate in his career (over 30%). He is turning 33. He is Keon Broxton, just older.

    Hard pass. I don’t want these sorts of players on Mets teams any longer. And I am skittish about him taking away AAA playing time from Mets prospects. Let’s challenge the kids because the good ones will figure out a way to hit against higher competition and it should accelerate their readiness for the Mets.

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  7. I’m with the majority on the defense and although I view Stewart and Thompson as similar output players, I wouldn’t have a problem letting McNeil be the #5 outfielder and letting Vientos DH everyday, and putting them both in the minors. In my hypothetical plan, it comes down to Short or another utility player or one of the two outfielders. There is a logjam of AAAA types and that needs to be cleared out, but they are better then last hear’s AAAA types: Ortega, Arauz, etc.

    As for Montgomery, he wants either Nola money or to be in Boston with his wife. Is he as good as Nola? I don’t think so. Is it close? I don’t know….

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    1. I'm in on te of D also. And I'm not worried about the backup OFers. If we have an extended need there, we probably (unless he walks) will have Joey Churches at 'Cuse, who can be called up with McNeil moving to a corner.

      Andd depending on when the need occurs (hopefully never)we might benefit from giving Gilbert or Williams a look-see.

      If our backup OFers are our biggest weakness, we're in good shape.

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  8. Gus, that makes sense.

    I considered whether a just turned 27 Luke Ritter might be better than an almost 33 year old Thompson, as Ritter last year was .243/.372/.496 in AA and AAA - only to find that Ritter has played mostly 2nd and 3rd, plus a lot of 1B….but NO outfield. If you can play 2nd and 3rd, and you’re not a snail - he isn’t - why haven’t the Mets played him in the outfield?

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  9. We've got Gilbert, Clifford and Williams, and (hopefully) AzRam out there. Maybe Mauricio, too. How many do we need?

    Thompson probably won't be here, anyway, unless he's an emergency call-up from 'Cuse.

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  10. Bill, agreed. Every game our kids play in 2024 is one game closer to being major league ready.

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