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2/17/24

Reese Kaplan -- Watching a Polar Bear Heading Out of Town


Today I'm going to make a statement which leads to a major question and perhaps a little bit of the understanding for the New York Mets' inaction towards extending first baseman and premier slugger Pete Alonso.  It's been a long time since the Mets had a player who was a steady provider of 40+ home runs and 100+ RBI potential year after year.  

For his career Alonso has provided on average per 162 games a .251 batting average with 45 home runs and 118 RBIs.  Those run production numbers exceed what you received from Hall of Famer Mike Piazza though with a batting average 57 points to the inferior.  


Before the arrival of Piazza going way back in Mets history was pitcher-turned-hitter and known-to-be fairly dislikable all or nothing swinger, Dave Kingman.  During his offensive career there was no doubt about Kong's ability to drive the ball over the wall, but it was accompanied by a horrific volume of strikeouts, mediocre defense and a batting average for his entire career of just .236 while delivering 37 HRs and 101 RBIs per 162 games.  

His defense was so bad that for his entire career with 442 HRs he still only managed to tally a WAR of 17.3 which Alonso has tied in just five full seasons in the majors (plus the 2020 COVID shortened one).  

So the statement here is one about player value.  Pete Alonso is surely a better and more valuable player for the New York Mets than Dave Kingman was, but considering Mike Piazza's ending WAR of 59.5 he's not quite up to that level either.  For Mets fans who are accustomed to scratching out runs year after year, the power show Alonso provides is a refreshing and welcome change.  

Many folks suggest that last year's .217 batting average was indicative of who Pete Alonso really is and they expect to see more of the same.  Others quickly point out he was recovering from injury and likely rushed himself back due to the poor overall performance of the team who crashed and burned rather than contending for the postseason.  Still others seem to accuse his All Star Game Home Run Derby partcipation indicative of a change in his approach afterwards which negatively impacts his offensive game.

None of these three evaluations is compeletely right, but there's a grain of truth to each one.  Where it becomes fascinating, scary and current is the recent revelation that the Mets are not planning on pushing for a contract extension for Alonso and will indeed let him explore free agency as is his choice.  

Huh, what?

First of all, if you can provide big money contracts to since departed pitchers, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and others, what's the stumbling block on Pete Alonso?  Granted, if he and his chosen agent Scott Boras have already decided they need to get a bidding war going before becoming serious with Steve Cohen about returning to the Mets, well there's very little David Stearns can do to stop that from happening.

However, if the risk he vanishes to find his future baseball fortunes elsewhere, then all the Mets would get in return would be a declined QO draft pick and nothing else.  That would seem like very little value in return for what they have provided to Pete Alonso and what Alonso has given to his current employer.  

That harsh truth suggests that perhaps the better move would be to trade him now when his value is somewhat depressed given his .217 average last season or trade him at the All Star break when another club seeking run production might somewhat overpay to get him for the balance of the year while understanding that they could then lose him for nothing at year's end.  


So the question now becomes do you hang your hope on whatever bridges David Stearns and Steve Cohen can build with Alonso on the slim chance he will return to the Mets, do you trade him now a year too soon to maximize the return you would get, or do you trade him in July in the hope you can fleece other teams by securing their top minor league prospects (plural) for a two month Alonso rental?  None of these solutions is ideal either, but doing nothing appears to be the worst possible choice among them.  

Have at it.

17 comments:

  1. Evening Reese

    I agree 1000% here

    As much as I want Oetebto stay I think he is being directed by his agent to wait and see what offers come in.

    Trust me. Having the Mets match an offer from a team with a lower tax base will not get someone to fight their way to Tax City.

    Alonso will never have a larger return than right now. And you use this unspent money in the next offseason to sign a much better WAR producing first baseman like Paul Goldschmidt (sp... to early to use spellchek)).

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    1. Ugh

      Not Otebto...l

      Should have said Pete to stay

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  2. What is Stearns’ history in past situations like this?

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  3. I believe he's more renown going the other way, trading to obtain star caliber players who then improved upon arrival in Milwaukee.

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  4. Hey Tom

    There is a team of ex Mets out there that could compete for a playoff spot

    Could make a great column

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  5. Remember the money not spent on Alonso will be spent on another FA!

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  6. Can we have Colin Holderman back? Vogelbach told me, “fat chance”.

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  7. This whole argument about Pete vs. Soto is kind of crazy as it comes down to what is his worth to us and how do you replace him? With our new cost conscious direction and build from within M.O. how in the world does half a billion dollars for Soto fit in? Frankly it doesn't so do we spend say $225 million for 8 years on Alonso or trade him for prospects and I think the way their handling this says to me he's gone. I also don't believe we resign him if he goes to Free agency because that's too big a gamble when he has so many other options like Wrigley where he could regularly hit 60 homers and if that won't put egg on our faces nothing will. Not resigning Murph was a disaster so can you even imagine the Alonso scenario AND we only got a draft pick for him. So DS are you going to trade him now or at the deadline? By the way we just signed the immortal Ji-Man Choi as a DH option....why? Sterns should just end this who is our DH nonsense and say what we all know that Vientos is our DH period.

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  8. Vientos given a chance might do a good job. Maybe 230/20/65. That’s pretty good

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  9. I expect Vientos would do better.

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    1. 20 HRs and 65 rbi pretty good,I think the Mets would take that

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  10. Such panic! Has anyone here heard of a man named Judge? He played in this city, spent his final pre-FA season showing what he was worth, and got the contract he EARNED.
    Or a man named Reyes, who also played in this city, refused to negotiate an extension, and declared he was going FA to sign with "whoever offers the most, even if it's only a dollar". Which he did.

    NO ONE "knows" if Pete's
    217 season was an outlier, or the start of a decline. We DO know thhat he has said he wants to be "a Met for life". We also know that "Uncle Steve" can outbid any competitor for any player he wants.

    It makes perfect sense for both Pete and the team to let the season play out. If he rebounds, he's set for a super-huge deal. If hr fails, he'll either sign here for less or walk in exchange for a draft pick.

    Hopefully he'll have a great season and realize his wish. But there's no need to rush.

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  11. I think Vientos will hit a HR every 20 plate appearances. That ain’t bad.

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  12. 500 at bats, 30 HRs, 80 RBIs for Bientos would not be overly pie-in-the-sky. I for one happen to like pie.

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  13. Is Vientos eligible for ROY? 30 HRs and he’d be a good candidate.

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