Gosh, this off-season has not gone as planned.
We did not make any major free agent splashes. We knew Peterson would be out until June 1st at the earliest. The loss of Senga certainly puts a damper on our outlook. On top of that our new 100MPH guy is back in Japan.
However, I did project that the Mets as a playoff caliber team in 2024 and I’m sticking to my guns. For that to happen, players need to perform like the very talented group they are.
Last year they scored an underwhelming 717 runs. To compete they need to increase run production by around 100 runs.
In other words, nearly every starter needs to outperform 2023. Here’s the way I see things going.
|
Name |
BA |
HRS |
RBI |
|
|
Nimmo |
0.287 |
24 |
73 |
|
|
Marte/Gilbert |
0.270 |
18 |
65 |
|
|
Lindor |
0.275 |
32 |
105 |
|
|
Alonso |
0.255 |
48 |
122 |
|
|
McNeil |
0.312 |
15 |
70 |
|
|
Alvarez |
0.240 |
35 |
80 |
|
|
Baty |
0.265 |
26 |
75 |
|
|
Vientos |
0.250 |
22 |
70 |
|
|
Bader |
0.230 |
12 |
50 |
|
|
Bench |
0.220 |
15 |
110 |
|
|
247 |
820 |
|||
Of course,
my assumptions are based on the starting group remaining healthy for most of
the season. My expectations for the baby
Mets is for them to produce based on their pedigrees. I see Gilbert coming up at some point, no
later than the All-Star break, to take over for Marte who could lose time to
injuries or be a trade candidate.
It’s going
to be an exciting season and hopefully the return of Senga and Peterson boosts what
could potentially be a strong rotation. It’s
hard to foresee the makeup of the Pen at this stage but I think we will be
okay.
Ray
February 26,
2024
Ray, that is a lot of optimism on Baty. May you be right.
ReplyDeleteI like your approach, though. Add up the projections and see what they give you.
When did they get Johnny Bench? Just kidding.
Hopefully the bench will produce that. With Tyrone Taylor, I think that is very achievable.
I too think the offense could add 100 runs above 2023, but much will have to go right. 820 runs is 5 runs per game. That is a lot to ask for from a team playing in a pitchers park.
That interview that Todd Zield did with Baty on Saturday gave me optimism on Baty as well. He may have figured out the issue that was troubling him last year, and if he bats well he will field well because his mental state will be better.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy being positive for a change.
ReplyDeleteI always enjoy it.
DeleteMath has always been one of your strong suits, coupled with your knack for predictions - feeling pretty good about these numbers! For this to work, we need an exceptional season from Lindor. His bat has to make up the differences. Pete, in a contract year, just needs consistent protection, and I expect his season to be monstrous.
ReplyDeleteCan we please have a consistent lineup for a change. Baseball players like routine. Buck did the young group a disservice last year moving them all around and not allowing stability.
Denis I wonder who really made up the lineup card but now a new regime again and I'm willing to give them a chance. Look we all love nothing more than rooting for young players hungry for a shot at the bigs and fighting to get there and finally we have the depth to hopefully make that work. LGM! I would love of course to make the playoffs this year but even more important will be to see improvement overall from a terrible 23' and also find out if Pete is our long term guy.
ReplyDeleteNice to have my son reading my posts and commenting.
ReplyDeleteI know he's older, but, really, you're projecting Johnny Bench to only hit .220 with 15 homers and 110 ribies? this is a hall of famer we're talking about!
ReplyDeleteHa, ha.
ReplyDeleteActually, at his age that would be a good production for Johnny
ReplyDeleteJohnny probably has a hard time getting up off the bench now. Age 76 and a former catcher? Oh my creaking knees.
ReplyDelete