Pages

2/8/24

Tom Brennan - Facts on Mets Hitters at Home vs. Away

WOW!  THAT shot didn’t go out? Caught at the 408 sign? Again?


Yeah…THAT CITI-SUBJECT again. 

Brennans can be annoying sometimes.

I took a little time to look at home and away Mets hitting since 2015, the first season of the current dimensions (other than a slight, positive tweak in right field in 2023).  

Keep in mind there should be a home-field advantage in your home park.

Homefield advantage ultimately means "how much is your home-field helping you to win at home".

But this article looks at whether hitting at home is advantageous, or disadvantageous, to Mets hitters.

The answer, in a word, is disadvantageous. But you check out the facts.

Except for that slight, favorable fence alteration in 2023, the last inward fence alteration at Citifield benefitted the Mets hitters starting in 2015.  

Excluding the 60 game fluke season of 2020, how did the Mets hit at home and on the road in the 8 full seasons starting in 2015? 

Average for 8 years on the road: .253, 103 HRs, 365 runs

Average for 8 years at home: .238, 96 HRs, 332 runs

Significantly lower hitting at home over a statistically meaningful stretch of time.

On average they have been in the bottom third in home hitting, but almost reaching into the top third in road hitting. I would posit that road hitting is the true indicator of a team’s offensive ability, as it largely eliminates the impact of the 81 game home field advantage or disadvantage. Collectively, games on the road are hitter-neutral.

We all know the Rockies have a crazy good home park hitting set up for hitters. But their guys go on the road, and you see their true colors. They hit a whole lot less. My guess? On the road over the last 8 full seasons, the Mets have hit a lot better than the Rockies.

If there was a homefield advantage, the Mets’ .253, 103 HRs, and 365 runs that they produce on the road should be slightly higher than that at home.

So, say about .257, 110 HRs and 380 runs at home, if the park was hitter-neutral, as one should expect a team would hit somewhat better at home.  

The gap between hypothetical home results in a neutral park, and actual home results, is clearly huge, and negative, to the Mets' hitters.

If they hit 20 points higher at home, with 15% more Citifield HRs and runs, fans who only see what a hitter is producing overall would suddenly feel better about the team’s hitters, cheer them more, boo them less.

Yes, opponents have to hit at Citifield for a few games each year, too.

Mets hitters hit there in 81 games, though, and that increased difficulty has to affect their psyche. It is like running on a running machine set on a 3% upwards grade. You won’t run as fast.  Tougher park, you won’t hit as well. Hitters hit better? They hit better in a neutral park, relax and press less.

That’s all I have to say (again) on the subject. Hopefully, my nagging will give Stearns and Cohen something to think (and study) about.

Pitchers? If the home park is a little easier on hitters, keep the ball down better and you’ll do fine.



Of course, any player who played at that park there had to be dead pull hitter.

IT’S THE METS’ FAULT?

I READ THIS ON FOX NEWS’ WEBSITE:

“A Pew Research Center survey found Americans believe football, not baseball, is "America’s sport," and the margin is very wide. The survey saw 12,000 adults asked, "If you had to chose one sport as being ‘America’s sport,’ even if you don’t personally follow it, which sport would it be?" 

“This question, found in a broader survey about sports fandom throughout the United States, saw 53% of Americans believe football was America’s sport. Baseball came next on the list at 27%.”

If the Mets were the long-time juggernaut franchise we all wished they’d have been, baseball would still be most popular. That’s my opinion, anyway.

WELL DESERVED

Phil Bickford deservedly (IMO) wins his arbitration. I strongly advocated for him in this regard in an earlier column.  Good for you, Phil. 

Bickford, who has 3 full relief seasons in the majors, pitched for New York and the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. He will now earn $900,000 this season, $85,000 more than what the Mets had offered him. The 2024 MLB minimum wage is $740,000, so the Mets’ rejected offer after 3 seasons was just $75,000 above the minimum. Now, he’ll make a little more than 20% over the minimum.

And…Wild Man Austin Adam gets DFA’d…dang. May the reigning HBP King and proud owner of 170 MLB Ks in 116 MLB innings pass through waivers and remain in the Mets organization.

30 comments:

  1. I’m going to Whole Foods. Their prices are good, and their outfield dimensions are fair. Carry on without me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good luck shopping Tom. Hope you find some deals.

    On Foul Territory on Monday, Brandon Nimmo said that Citifield plays as a pitcher’s park and defense is certainly a priority there. Well, isn’t that interesting? After all these years, Nimmo finally was able to say who he feels. Well, not every park is the same: you have hitter parks and pitcher’s park. But, would I rather see a game at Citizen’s Bank Park or at Citifield? Honestly, Citizen’s Bank. It’s nice to see people scoring all the time. But, we like our own too.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tom

    Every fence analysis you write is always about one thing. Home runs.

    Is that all there is to hitting?

    Name me how many batting champions also led the league in hitting homers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey folks

      I'm not writing this with anger

      Please keep commenting.

      Delete
  4. I got introduced to MLB by watching the likes of Tome Seaver and Bob Gibson. I loved to watch these pitchers. I guess I love a well-pitched 1-0 game versus a 10-9 hit fest.

    I looked at the Batting stats for the Mets over the last three years on ESPN's website (time constraints prevent me going back as far as Tom did)

    In 2021 the Mets hit .243 with 303 runs on 77 HRs at home versus hitting .234, 333 runs on 99 HRs on the road.

    In 2022, the Mets at home hit .253 with 376 runs on 81 HRs versus .265 with 396 runs on 90 HRs on the road.

    In 2023, the Mets at home hit .234 with 350 runs on 116 HRs versus .241 with 367 runs on 99 HRs on the road.

    Over the last three years, the home, away HR splits were minus 22, minus 9 to plus 17. The first two years back up Tom's argument. 2023 does not.

    But to me, the bottom line is wins. Over the last three years the Mets had a winning record at home with 47-34, 54-27, and 42-38 records. On the road, the Mets were 30-51, 47-34, and 32-49 records.

    Less scoring with less home runs but more wins? I love a well-pitched win.

    After all this, I believe an analysis of the pitching needs to be done as well. Cohen and Stearns are paying more people a lot smarter on this than me and will hopefully construct a team that will dominate at home and be more than competitive on the road. If this means less home runs at home, let it be less home runs. Remember, if the Mets hit more home runs at home so will the other teams.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you Steve

      There so many other ways of winning a game than hitting a fly one foot in front of the fence

      Delete
  5. I am a home run guy mostly because our regular hitters are playing most of the games and are psychologically happier if they are hitting better. Pitchers? They pitch a lot less, and can adapt far more easily.

    I am glad to see a recent positive better home than road record. But, I think if hitters felt like when they squared one up at Citi, it would clear the track, they “hit happier” and that home wins positive would be larger.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Of course, if Pete leaves, and Acuna and Williams play small ball, the fence depth might neutralize for the lower-powered, higher speed Mets hitters. Not sure, though. For every home HR Jett and Acuna hit, they may have a ball caught on the track that would have gone out.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Off subject

    Had a dream last night that I was teaching Blade Tidwell in the pitching lab

    Gotta quit sniffing glue before I go to sleep

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Will we ever learn the full story of what the pitching lab does and how it operates, or will it be regarded like the Starship Enterprise or the Death Star?

      Use The Force, Luke!

      Delete
  8. Gus, Citizens Bank Park any day. Attendance might drop, though, if only citizens could attend.

    ReplyDelete
  9. “I owe this Cy Young award to the tutelage of Mack”, Tidwell will soon say. In the next dream, at least.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Surprised no comments on the Bickford arb. He has 3 years in, 181 innings, 204 Ks, 11-8, 4.43, and the Mets offered him just $75,000 over the MLB $740,000 minimum? He should have gotten a minimum of $1 million, IMO, but wisely conservatively countered (and won) at $900,000, which is only 21% over the MLB minimum. I think thr Mets were going “full Wilpon” with Bickford. I for one am thrilled he won.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry

      I am not a big fan

      Slot.should go to either Lucchesi or Butto

      Delete
  11. Before I run out, my final thought today.

    Hitters need to learn how to hit again. I believe that today's hitters are trying to be all or nothing. The result I believe are smaller stadiums to get the home runs at the expense of lower batting averages and more strike outs. In 2022, the Mets tried a more small-ball approach. The result less home runs, more runs scored, and a 100 win season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, with Chavez reinstated as the hitting coach, can the Mets more mirror the 2022 team?

    Would I be happier if I hit what the stadium provided, and I win more (as in 2022) or would I be happier by hitting more home runs (2021, 2023)? Without wins, how to you get to the championship games?

    Just thinking.

    What is there to say about Bickford that you didn't say. I agree with you on this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hit like McNeil, win 100+ games

      Delete
    2. 9 batters in lineup that hit like McNeil

      Lead league in hits and runs scored and win 110+ games

      Delete
  12. Citi Field would fit inside Coors Field. Yet Coors is considered a hitters park. Part of the reason for that is the vast dimensions of the field. Tough to cover the gaps, so more balls drop in and averages are higher there. But it yields more HRs only because of the thin air that provides less resistance to the flight of the ball. At Citi Field, the prevailing winds and denser air seem to keep balls down.

    Of the 30 MLB parks, 21 of them are in a very tight grouping with a 400' to 409' CF fence.
    The only short ones are PNC (Pittsburgh 399'), Fenway (390'), and three NL West teams in the 395'-399' range.

    So the Mets are faced with a choice: become a "Band Box" or take advantage of Citi Field as a park where you can hit more singles and doubles with a McNeil-like approach. With the range in the 2024 outfield (Nimmo, Bader, Marte) we could limit the damage from other teams trying to hit gaps. A future with Jett, LuisAngel, Drew Gilbert, and JT Schwartz could thrive there.

    ReplyDelete
  13. One thing I haven't seen in thiscwhole thread is the home/away pitching comparison.

    If Mets players' home/away HR #s matter, so should the ERAs. It's been said by wiser men than me that "pitching and defense win". If the Mets hit (for example) 50 fewer HRs at home than on the road, but give up 60 fewer, is that a plus or a minus?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You don't see that because Tom's record player needle only plays songs about home tlruns ;)

      Delete
  14. My (3) Thoughts

    (1) I think that with Eric Chavez back in as this team's Batting Instructor, there will be no similarities to the Mets 2023 and 2024 hitting seasons. Eric is exactly what this team needed. It's a BINGO!

    (2) I would suggest offering a combination of players, perhaps something perhaps like a package of Jose Quintana, Jose Butto, and perhaps Omar Narvaez (with Tomas Nido coming back to the Mets as the backup catcher) as a possibly suitable tradebait scenario for this new third starter from another MLB ballclub. But it does not have to be only these three Mets being considered here for this. This is just simply an idea.

    The reason why is most obvious.

    If say Kodai Senga or Luis Severino were to go down injured, early on in the first half for a longterm duration, the NYM season here in 2024 could be significantly affected in an extremely negative way. Maybe even season over as well because of lack of depth at the top-end of the rotation at current until possibly second half 2024 with one of the younger kid starters like Tidwell, Scott, or Vasil are ready. But by then, it could be "too late" to recoup the losses second half, that this could create.

    I would also consider Mets MiLB Binghamton Tyler Stuart in here for a looksee come ST, for this reason...Tyler had a 2023 season of: 7-2 record, 2.20 ERA, 112 strikeouts in 110 innings, 1.10 WHIP. Sure, he's young and only has been up to AA Ball, but I have seen a lot of baseball played in my time and would be willing to take a gamble in a NY Heartbeat with this kid. Tyler is awesome talented and right now.

    See him yourselves...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKEa9KYeiv4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well

      At least you stopped the Lavender for starter rhetoric

      Delete
  15. Tyler Stuart looked impressive. Now, if he can just add 3 MPH to the heater...

    ReplyDelete
  16. Bill
    I post something on the pitching home and away splits a couple of weeks ago
    Just going on memory, (and as we know about that in our 70s), I believe for the last couple of years the home ERA was like .75 less than the road ERA. That helps explain the winning records at home for the last three years.

    ReplyDelete
  17. JT Schwartz haven’t heard much about him. Did he make any top 25 lists? Is he hurt? Where will he start the season?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Lou, I saw Fangraphs just did an analytical ranking of the Mets top 50. Schwartz was 47, Rhylan Thomas was 22.

    #47 guys usually get a “Nice Try” trophy.

    Schwartz hopefully bulked up this off season, and gotten ready to compete seriously in 2024. He needs to dowshift and hit the gas.

    ReplyDelete
  19. The 75 points lower on home ERA. Question is how much of that ERA advantage disappears if fences came in 5-7 feet. I think perhaps 1/3 of that differential goes away, not the whole thing.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Mr Mack may feel batting average is an outdated stat. Walks,stolen bases and of course power are very important.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Albert I thank you for expressing your opinion. I just want the park to play a little more fair for hitters, even if that makes it a little bit harder for pitchers. I think the Mets would win as much,or more, at home, butthat is more based on gut than any data driven analysis I might do.

    ReplyDelete