Last year's bull pen was a sorry sight - what about 2024?
Sitting in the David Stearns Control Tower, has David guided enough relief planes to land at Citifield Airport?
Last year's pen performance (26-36, 4.45 ERA) was simply inadequate.
So, have enough relievers arrived at said airport to restock precious relief supplies? David has invited you into the tower so you can see what he sees. (Hint: I say “yes”.)
Let's go through it.
EDWIN DIAZ - C-130 Edwin will carry a huge load and is an enormous upgrade over David Robertson. Don't get me wrong; Robertson did fine for the Mets in 2023, but he only did it for 60% of the Mets season, hence the "2024 closer is an enormous upgrade" conclusion. I don't necessarily think Edwin will match his pre-injury hyper-brilliance of 2022, but I think he will sport an ERA around 2.00. And on his C-130 flights, he will ask MANY to return to their (dugout) seats.
ADAM OTTAVINO - slight upgrade. Adam left, then returned to the Citiport. Why a light upgrade? Despite his reasonably solid pitching in 2023, he was 1-7, so I think he ought to do better after his return flight.
BROOKS RALEY - a very solid 2023 might be hard to match, since his ERA was 2.80 and he turns 36 in June, but let's cross the fingers for a slight downgrade (i.e., an ERA between 3.00 and 3.50).
DREW SMITH - 30 year old Drew slipped a bit in 2023 to a 4.15 ERA. I see an upgrade to 3.25 to 3.50, simply because his ERA in 2021-22 was 2.80. He had an off year in 2023. He goes free agent in 2025, so he has a large incentive to rebound.
JAKE DIEKMAN - wow. He is 37, but a) is lefty and b) has 660+ outing and a fine record. You can stop RIGHT THERE…the answer is Stearns has built a strong bullpen.
The Rest:
SHINTARO FUJINAMI - the new signee has a live pen arm. After several decent Japanese baseball seasons, he pitched poorly (79 innings, ERA above 7.00) with the A’s and Orioles. Maybe his 2nd big league year is the charm. He agreed to a one-year Mets contract for $3.35 million, plus incentives.
He was horrific in April and May in his MLB debut, allowing 40 earned runs in 30 innings, but just 23 in his last 49 innings. TERRIBLE as a starter last year, 0-6 with an ERA above 14.00, but 7-2 as a reliever.
Wild, but HIGH HEAT ALERT! He threw 3 heaters to fan DJ Stewart last year to fan him that were clocked at 101, 101, and 103. Chew on that. Mmm, mmm, good!
Having Senga around to talk pitching with him, could he hone himself into a strong reliever? Let’s truly hope so.
PHIL BICKFORD - his ERA is too high in his 3 full years, but he is 11-8, 4.43 in 180 innings over those 3 seasons with 10+ Ks per 9 innings. He will turn 29 in July and (good for the Mets) doesn't turn free agent until 2028. I think a 4.00 - 4.50 ERA is likely, which is better than some other dude compiling a 5.50 ERA.
GRANT HARTWIG - going 5-2, 4.84 in 35 rookie year innings after a brief, but successful minors career, gives me hope his ERA in 2024 will improve, even if his record might not. I am thinking 4.00 to 4.25 ERA in 2024, or thereabouts. Sinker averaged 95, so why not?
MICHAEL TONKIN - the ex-Brave was 7-3, 4.28 (and 1.09 WHIP) in 80 innings last year. The 6'7" righty ought to plug a talent hole. I'll stick with a 4.25 to 4.50 ERA for 2024 for Tonkin.
SEAN REID-FOLEY - one of those "if he can ever stay healthy" guys. In 7.2 innings in 2023, he remarkably fanned 16. How about a 4.50 ERA in 2024 over 30 innings or so?
JORGE LOPEZ - the 31 year old in 2024 was 6-2 in 2023 (yay!) but 5.94 ERA, and 22-40, 5.51 in his career (UGH). Why would I expect an ERA better than 5.00 in 2024? So I can't see him as a key piece. Hand him a mop.
REED GARRETT - a 7.11 ERA in 44 career innings for 2023, including a 5.82 in 17 Mets innings. A very marginal contributor as a 31 year old in 2024 until proven otherwise. Endangered species?
MAX KRANICK - 26 years old, released by the Bucceroos, 44 career innings, high ERA. See Reed Garrett comments, except perhaps the Mets see a velocity rebound into the mid-90s in 2024. Possible wild card. To me, a call-up-when-needed reliever.
AUSTIN ADAMS - truly a wild card, he has fanned an amazing 170 in 116 MLB innings, but walks too many and set a MLB HBP record a few years ago with 24 HBP in just 52 innings. Seems like the kind of guy you'd not mind having around for mop-ups. 6-5, 4.17 career, I'll go with 30 innings and 4.50 for him.
BRYCE MONTES DE OCA - the high velocity freak had his 2nd Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Returning from TJS #2 is a high risk endeavor.
JOSH WALKER - I dunno, do you? He's lefty, which helps his cause.
STARTERS WHO COULD RELIEVE - Megill, Peterson (lefty), Lucchesi (lefty), Butto. They haven't relieved a whole lot in their careers. They could (and should) provide a lot of quality pen innings if that is management's mindset. You're in the tower with Stearns, you ask him.
POSSIBLE CALL-UP RELIEVERS - Nate Lavender, Paul Gervase, Eric Orze, Joander Suarez(?). I think at least 2 of these get some real innings in 2024 and do OK.
SUMMARY:
Having viewed the landscape from the control tower, we ought to be able to count on Edwin’s brilliance, and solid competence from Ottavino, Smith, Diekman and Raley.
The rest could pitch well collectively in 2024 - or not. I expect better back end bullpen production than in 2024.
Those with options may not be with team on opening day?
Quantity? It seems fine - and deep. Of course, only time will tell.
I'm guessing all of the above equates to 34-26, 3.60, a real upgrade from 2023.
GREAT JOB, DAVID STEARNS.
AGE AND POWER
Before I wrap it up today, age is always a factor to consider in baseball.
Pete Alonso’s 2019 rookie campaign was a whole lot better than Mark Vientos’ major league career so far.
Pete, though, made his 2019 MLB debut at the age of 24 years, 111 days.
On opening day (March 28, 2024), Mark Vientos will be 24 years, 109 days old.
My point?
Let’s see how Mark does in 2024 (my guess, much better) at the identical age of Pete Alonso in his 2019 rookie campaign.
AFTER ALL:
Mark in 2023 hit well in AAA, but struggled with the Mets (except for September, when he jacked 6 HRs in 84 at bats).
Pete at that age, in 2018, was tearing up - in AA, and then hitting well in AAA.
Vientos won’t hit 53…but why not 30?
AT WITT’S END
Saw this in MLB Trade Rumors:
Bobby Witt, 23, agreed to “an 11-year extension. The Octagon client is reportedly guaranteed nearly $288.78MM on the largest contract in team history.
“Witt has multiple chances to opt out of the deal, as he’ll be able to test free agency after the 2030, ’31, ’32 and ’33 seasons. If he doesn’t exercise any of those opt-out clauses, the Royals would receive a three-year team option after the ’34 campaign. That’s an $89MM provision covering the 2035-37 seasons, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $377MM over 14 years.”
When you have the privilege of drafting 2nd overall, which the Mets have not for quite a long time, you can get a huge star like Witt. But boy, that is SOME contract.
ReplyDeleteI am not willing to believe in this bullpen much beyond Diaz until I see proof. Thus far they have done precious little with PROVEN arms other than Ottavino and Diekman.
ReplyDeleteGreat list of bullpen depth, Tom. How do you find out who has options? I hope he didn't stack the pen with arms such as Tonkin and Lopez that Lavender (and Gervase later) get lost and never get their chance.
ReplyDeleteAs for Witt, he is a great player with a combo of power and speed. He should be getting a Tatis like contract. I hope KC backs it up and builds a solid winning organization for his years there.
Maybe the theme song for the.pen should be "Don't Let The Old Man In"
ReplyDeleteR.I.P Toby Keith
Bill, thanks. Kansas City and Oakland were both awful, but Witt is boosting KC. I read that Oakland has no prospects in baseball’ top 100. Bewildering. Seemingly impossible. Make Brad Pitt the GM out there.
ReplyDeleteI think Lavender and Gervase will pitch if this year is anything like 2021-23. They go thru SO many relievers each year.
This page has options info. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/payroll/?ref=trending-pages
Reese, I think some of these many pen names are upgrades over the 2023 back end. I am excited about Fujiyama and hopeful about Raley Repeat.
ReplyDeleteMack, I am ready if they need a crafty lefty. Yes, RIP Toby Keith. Too young.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, I predict we have one of the best Pens this year.
ReplyDeleteThere is not much there for long arms. Only short ones. I expect this to be another season of frequent 5 or less inning starts. A truckload of 1-inning guys doesn't do it. The Mets need to use 2-3 pen positions for long releivers, and I think there are a ton of guys who could fill the role, starting with Megill and ending with some of those fresh young arms in AAA/AA.
ReplyDeleteYes Toby way to young. I wonder if Bobby was at his "Witts end" wondering if he sould sign it. BP is a case of 'if you throw enough S**t agains't the wall some will stick" but really isn't that what or new pitching lab is all about? Just finished looking over the payroll decline after this season and I guess not signing Correa actually worked out for us. I have a feeling we will be very busy at the trade deadline this year.
ReplyDeleteCrazy idea but what about having a designated pitcher who throws say 3 innings every 3 or 4 days to save the BP?
ReplyDeleteI'm still wondering what the heck this mysterious "pitching lab" is, how it works, which pitchers go there and for how long, and whether any pitchers have attended yet. So far, it's about as defined as "Use The Force, Luke".
ReplyDeleteAs for last year's pen, I wonder how much the trickle-down effect factored into the awfulness. If Diaz were here, and Robby could spend all his time in the role he was signed for (setup), that would have meant less pressure and arm-weariness on Otto. And that means less pressure on whoever (Smith?) was behind Otto/Raley, and so on.
IMO if we went into '24 with the same bunch as '23, but led by Diaz, the overall numbers would've been more acceptable.
Of course, we'll never know, but hopefully Stearns' track recird of building pens will continue, and Tom's optimism will be rewarded
I did see a little clip about the guy who just signed for three years $33 million, who got fixed as soon as he got to the rays. There were other guys that have gone to the rays who got quickly fixed and dramatically improved. Hopefully that is a lot to do with the lab, and some of these hard, throwing relief arms will suddenly outdo their career numbers. I did see Jake Peavey also coincidentally talking about how the two seem and cutter that he developed made them a whole different level of pitcher. So let’s see if they can improve these guys , Sewald is certainly another example of a guy who tweaked and became geometrically better.
ReplyDeleteYou sound like you're a lot better informed than I am about the workings of the lab. Can you answer any of the questions I posed above?
DeleteHi Bill! I heard an interview Mike Vasil gave last week talking about the lab, so let me jump in and offer some of his details. Vasil explained how the lab tracks and maps out a certain pitch, so with a grip adjustment, any change in the break or pitch path would be shown to the pitcher. Plus, they put all kinds of monitors on you to see if you are straining any muscles with your delivery, hopefully making you healthier. Too, it seems they are able to add some velocity with tweaks in the delivery. Small things that can all add up, I guess.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteWhy not Luchessi,MeGill and Butto in BP. Isn’t that a better use of resources instead of them starting in yracuse?
ReplyDeleteNice job breaking it down Tom, but the problem is that last year it all sounded great also. I would say the biggest difference between last year and this year is that last year Eppler went cheap with options to finalize the pen. This year, Stearns went cheap (sort of) but with upside rather than the options to finalize his pen.
ReplyDeleteSorry, that was me.
DeleteDoesn’t it kind of make it easier when basically 20 or so teams are sitting on the sidelines and watching the action? What’s up with that?
DeleteGus, I think if teams are over-eager, it raises the free agent overall salary floor, which inflates all salaries…some of the last few years’ salaries have primed the pump. I don’t blame teams for slowing it down from a P&L standpoint.
ReplyDeleteLast year, the freakish injury to Edwin set the wheels in motion. Then old starters crumbled befor our eyes. If Edwin not hurt, though, they most likely make the playoffs, with no blow up.
My Only Question with the 2024 NY Mets
ReplyDeleteThe team looks fine and set to me, except with their starting rotation. Perhaps a starter upgrade at the three spot, move Manaea to four, and have a battle between Megill, Hoser, Smith, and Lucchesi for the five and then one other for the sixth (in case of injury). In any event, I would still think about making a trade for this third starter role pitcher. Like new KC starter Michael Wacha could have been (yes the guy we had here a few seasons back, but was injured somewhat if I recall correctly). Last two seasons with SD and Philly Michael was 25-6 won/lost, 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 261 innings pitched. I also still like a possible sign and trade for Eduardo Rodriquez, providing his Covid19 ailment is truly behind him and I think it is.
My final thought here, is that I'd like to maybe see the Rumbleponies' RSP Tyler Stuart be invited to ST. He's most impressive in the youtube videos I have seen on him, and to my eye looked possibly ready for the jump to the Bigs quite soon. He's 6'9" 24 years old. 2023 7-2 won/loss, 2.20 ERS 112 SO's in 110.2 innings of work, 1.10 WHIP. Just have a hunch on this Tyler Stuart being a natural. I think worth a looksee.
To me, Jose Butto has to establish a little more consistency to be in the bigs.
ReplyDeleteMight consider using RF Starling Marte in the DH role to open the season. Maybe have an opening day OF of: LF Vientos CF Bader RF Nimmo, until Starling has his legs totally back whole again. Should be the best way to go with Marte, cautious.
ReplyDeleteI am really liking all the good arms that the Mets have gathered for the bullpen. Will be much better than 2023 was absolutely.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget DJ Stewart either. Get him in there!
ReplyDelete