Tom Brennan: Mets 2024 Better Than Mets 2023? I Think So

 

The off season is always the Honeymoon period.

The Mets have recently gotten hitched with some "suitors".

Will the 2024 season be better...or worse...than expected?

The Mets ought to better in 2024 than in 2023…here’s why:

1) STARTING PITCHING

Sure, there is no Max and Justin this year, just their salaries, but what looked like it would be a fine 2023 rotation fizzled:

a) Justin and Max combined missed lots of starts.

b) Senga was great, but just 29 starts.

c) Carrasco made only 20 starts. With a 3-8 record and a 6.80 ERA, while the team went 7-13 in those 20 starts,  maybe missing them all would have been better.  (Give Joey 20 starts instead and he would have won 20 games. After all, he had no losses in 2023.)

d) Quintana made just 13 starts. < 50% of expectations.

e) Peterson and Megill were up-and-down in their fill-in starts. Lucchesi was brilliant, of course, at 4-0, 2.89.

Despite the above, the fine Senga pitching and limited dose of Joey brilliance resulted in the Mets surprisingly being 13th in starter team ERA, at 4.20. 

I think Senga, Manaea, Houser, Severino, Quintana, Megill, with his new split finger pitch, Lucchesi, and Peterson can at least equal that starters’ ERA in 2024, and possibly get it down to 3.75. 

Stay healthy, stay sharp, lads.  

2) RELIEF PITCHING

Gone are Robertson and Ottavino, who combined were 5-9, 2.75 with 26 of 32 in saves in 2023. Big loss.  (Well, on second thought, Adam Ottavino is BACK!  Thankfully.)

His Fastness, Sir Edwin the Great is back, too, and the man with more punch outs than Hitman Tommy Hearns should more than neutralize the loss of Robertson. 

Also, the pen got rid of some (IMHO) total retreads with what are likely modest-to-solid upgrades, and a few retained hurlers like Drew Smith and Brooks Raley remain ready to get the job done. 

Last year’s Edwin-less pen was a substandard 26-36, with a 22nd best 4.45 ERA. 

I expect the 2024 pen to be in the 3.80 to 4.00 range, before further upgrades, if any. 

I like newer Mets in the pen like Phil Bickford; Michael Tonkin, who was 7-3, 4.28 with the Braves last year; Max Kranick, who might well help; and wild man Austin Adams, with his wild, HBP-crazed pitching (31 HBPs and 170 Ks in 114 wild MLB career innings) ought to be fascinating to watch.  

Then, of course, there is the spill-over of starters who can't start due to lack of room in a healthy rotation.  

3) HITTING

Should improve, based on the following:

a) Mark Vientos and Brett Baty struggled a-plenty last year, essentially as rookies, and should show significant improvement as "veterans" in 2024. 

b) Signs are positive as to a Starling Marte resurgence, as he looks healthy while playing W Ball, and may put the STAR back in Starling.

c) Pete, Lindor, Nimmo, and McNeil, the foundational four, should provide similar output to their 2023, perhaps even better.

d) Francisco Alvarez had a dandy rookie season at age 21. He should be "Dandy PLUS" this season, and his back-up, Narvaez, was so bad last year, partially due to injury, that one would only expect real improvement there.

e) Harrison Bader is an upgrade.  Decent hitter, good speed. Gold glove.

f) The bench has replaced several slow and punchless hitters of 2023 with Joey Wendle, Tyrone Taylor, and (a late 202 addition) “Write a Little Letter, Gonna Mail it to my local D.J.” Stewart.  Maybe Jose Iglesias gets some ABs, too.

IMO, the hitting could generate 50-75 more runs in 2024. And a few of the minors kids should be ready to help in the second half of 2024.

And...Drew, Jett, and Luisangel are drawing closer to the show, too. Ronny Mauricio should be back in time to be World Series MVP, also.

4) FIELDING

The 2023 Mets were a sorry 25th in baseball with negative 25 defensive runs saved. 

David Stearns has ramped this area up by adding strong fielders in Bader, Taylor, and Wendle. Baty should be better, as should Vientos when he is in the field.  Both presumably are working feverishly to improve.

Marte could be a much better defensive player if he stays healthy, and Nimmo should improve by shifting to LF a lot more.  Alvarez improved his defense as 2023 proceeded, and (why not?) he may even shoot for a Gold Glove in 2024.

It is entirely plausible that this Mets team could finish at  + 25 DRS, which would be an invaluable 50 defensive runs saved improvement over 2023.

In Summary, your Honor:

If the Mets have a little more than their share of injury setbacks, they may win 85 (up 7 from 2023), but if they stay really, really healthy, 92-95 wins could be possible. 

Demented hopes? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

Now...let's see if theory dovetails with reality.

EX-MET JOE SMITH RETIRES

Drafted in 2006 in the 3rd round, he needed just 33 innings in the minors before making the Mets in 2007.  (He is the poster boy of my theory that if you as a draftee know what type and quality of pitches you need to throw, and the locations you need to throw them to, it should not be hard to get to the majors quickly.  But that theory seldom plays out in practice.  I get why it takes hitters longer - the pitch quality and speed increases as a player climbs the ladder, and it is a real adjustment.  Hitting is the hardest thing to do.)  

Pitching is largely knowing what to do, adjusting and executing.  Overly simplified?  I dunno - but Joe needed 33 innings.  Just 33.

Anyway, after his super-slim 33 innings in the minors, Smith relieved for the Mets for 2 seasons (2007 and 2008) and was 9-5, 3.51 in 136 games!  Sweet.  One might say indispensable. 

So the Mets, not being particularly shrewd, trade the low-salaried Joe Smith, getting (IMO) precious little in return.

Maybe they thought Joe was washed up?  

Maybe they knew something the other teams didn't know?

No, that theory doesn't fly.   

Joe, after his Mets trade, over his final 13 big league seasons, was 46-29 with an ERA under 3.00 in 730 outings and 665 innings. 

(I find myself thinking "STUPID, STUPID, STUPID", but I don't like to criticize the Mets if at all possible.  Well, not really, someone has to do it.  Just an extremely stupid trade.  Not the first, nor the last.)

Saves weren't his thing - just 30 of 66 but 29 of his first 56 before he was getting older, which was not so bad - but he also had 228 holds, a phenomenal amount.

Another guy with a fine career, but most of it NOT with the Mets.  A habit the Mets need to break, Justin Turner just reminded me. (No, he didn't, nor did Daniel Murphy or Jeff Kent or Amos Otis).

I did see that another quality player discard, Travis d'Arnaud, was not happy with how his Mets tenure and dismissal went down, and that the Mets are the team he was maddest at.  Oddly, and without calculating it, the post-Mets combined career hitting totals for Murphy, Turner, and d'Arnaud might just be HOF worthy. Dismissed.

End of my rant - different things about this team's miscues triggers me, and gets me on a rant.  I feel better now.