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3/1/24

Mack - My Current Mets Prospect Top 10



No frills list


No stats or comparisons. Real scouts are like Clint Eastwood, not Clint Black.

It is based on skill set, raw talent, and results above average for age. 

In my experience over the decades I have done this, I find that 70-80% of major league rosters consist of former top 10 prospects.

The other 20-30% were non-top 10 relievers and bench players.

There is an occasional player that was ranked in the top 10 but bust out that are in that 20-30% secondary factor.

A few even never make it to the majors... but...

You build a team with top 10 prospects.

Interesting example... Per Fangraphs, ALL Mets top 10 prospect in 2014 became major league starters, either on the Mets or other teams... and Jake deGrom was only ranked 7th, with a ceiling of SP3.

Here is my current list. It could change before I'm done writing it.  How's that for fluid? 

1.   CF/2B/SS   JETT WILLIAMS


Everybody else has this 20 year old as number one, so who am I to argue with them? 

He has done things consistently at a two year lower than average level. This is sick for someone this age.

My guess is he will debut as a second baseman, but it is also my guess that he will wind up in center.

Jett’s a gem.


2.   2B    MARIO VARGAS


Some will say this ranking is too high. No, my guess is all of you will. However, I am going to go along with two friends that get paid the big bucks to project these things out.

They both told me that they feel this kid is the most talented teenager in the Mets chain.

And he's just getting going.

No rush here. Probably three years in the affiliates. 

Then? The future starting second baseman into 2030 and beyond.


3.    RF    DREW GILBERT


Gilbert has risen on my list.

This is a future real deal outfielder that, because of the cannon he has for an arm, will wind up in right.

Can also play center because of both that arm and his field speed.

This is the eventual replacement for Starlin Marte.


4.    RHSP   CHRISTIAN SCOTT 


I have three starters in this list since last September.

Scott was ranked as the third one on the first ranking... stayed third on the next one... and moved to the King Of The Mound this time.

Why? Simple...

Multiple Mets evaluators and players have told me that he has been turning heads all spring with what he is throwing and what he has added in the off-season. 

Batters in the cage can't get their bat on his sick pitches.

I'm going out on a limb here.

This is first Baby Starter you see this season in the Mets rotation. 


5.    RHSP    TYLER STUART


Right behind Scott is Stuart.

A twitch less skill set but a whole lot more height.

Has had one bad pro GAME. How many pitchers do you know you say this about?

Began setting the plate last year at two levels, with a masterful array of different + pitches.

The hopes is this guy could also line up by the end of this season, but my guess he will end the season at Syracuse.

Others will probably get a shot first but they don't have what this giant possesses. 


6.   2B/CF   LUISANGEL ACUÑA


Helium alert!

Nice DNA but sadly not his brother. Still, I believe his bat will benefit greatly from the lab and it will catch up to his + speed and field skills.

I drool when I dream of  Acuna, Williams, and Gilbert as the starting Mets outfield.


7.    SS/3B    COLIN HOUCK


Houck was a late pick in the first round last year who just wasn't supposed to be still on the board. Most draft experts had him as a top pick in the 1.15 - 1.20 range; however, his demands for overslot money as an alternative to going to college, pushed other teams away. Steve Cohen doesn't get pushed away or care about overslot money so Houck is a Met.

Had a cup of professional coffee last season, but I'm sure his Mets uniform will get dirty this season. Only question is which team first, which I believe will be Lucy.

A shortstop, but I project he'll eventually wind up on third. 


8.    DH/1B/OF   RYAN CLIFFORD 


First question mark on my list.

Ryan can rake, but, boy, he has the potential to make us forget Dave Kingman's whiff rate.

The talent is there and, if he can cut his strikeouts, he could become Pete Alonso's replacement someday (let's face it... neither Brett Baty or Mark Vientos are lining up here).

For me, he has DH written on the back of his future Mets uniforms.


9.    RHSP    BLADE TIDWELL


Once my top pitching prospect, now third, not because of his still top skills, but the fact that two other pitchers have improved their game so much.

Tidwell needs a quick start this season, possibly still starting for Binghamton.  He still projects as the only potential Mets future SP1.


10.    OF/SS   NICK MORABITO 


Another kiddie, Nicky Bats will quickly move up the charts as a future Mets starter.

Expect him to play mostly this season in the Cyclones outfield, though he may open up in Lucy.



19 comments:

  1. Mack, nice list. I think those are 10 future major leaguers, some star quality, in the coming few years. Vargas I love, but not quite that high. Next year, though? Once many of these Top 10 graduate with honors, he may be my #1…especially with Danny Muno having inexplicably retired to become an astrophysicist studying the moono

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  2. Sometimes, I think that Danny Muno has been the most written about prospect in Mack’s Mets’ history. And (not) for good reason.

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  3. Kidding aside, I have never been more interested to see what rookie ballers and DSL Dandies in 2023 do for a follow up, in this case, in AD 2024. Many had eye-catching 2023 seasons.

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  4. Funny how things work out because if we didn't collapse last year the prospect list would be very different. Wow Vargas at #2 tell me more. I see Gilbert at least sharing RF by mid season because as much as a healthy Marte would help I just don't see him playing alot before more injuries. Now as far as Vientos and Baty its really time for them to start hitting but because of our wealth of talent we have backups. Gee I'm trying to remember if I ever wrote that about this team ever.

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  5. Mack,
    Excellent list.Not sure anyone could argue against any of these prospects not being in a top ten.

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  6. List sounds great, Mack. Do you know when the decision will be made as to which will be playing in the 4-game series week after next (I forgot what it's called)?

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    Replies
    1. No. Sorry. I know nothing about this

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    2. You know nothing about the series, or about the rosters?

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  7. By the way.

    Paul Articulates and I are working on updating the prospect lists on the site which will include top 20 2024 draft lists
    1

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  8. Bill our prospects will play the Nats prospect in mid-March. Who will play? Not yet announced, and likely for good reason. What if a prospect was 0 for 20 going into it? You'd likely shield him from that game.

    This is the latest: https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-breakout-faq-2024

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  9. My top 10 from October:

    1. Jett Williams - IF/OF

    2. Drew Gilbert - OF -

    3. Luisangel Acuna - IF

    4. Ronny Mauricio - Subsequently Injured - I'd shift Vargas into the top 10 and Mauricio out

    5. Kevin Parada - C - Before AFL - I subsequently edged him down after a poor AFL showing

    6. Blade Tidwell - RHSP

    7. Dominic Hamel - RHSP

    8. Christian Scott - RHSP

    9. Mike Vasil - RHSP

    10. Nick Morabito - OF

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  10. Sproat, Ziegler, Rodriquez, Reimer?

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  11. Also, Baro and Ramirez. I will say that Brian said earlier this week that teams don’t put players that suck in A ball on the 40 man roster unless there’s something not known. I’ll buy that.

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  12. My top 10:
    Williams, Gilbert, Scott, Acuna, Rodriguez, Houck, Vargas, Ramirez, Clifford, Ziegler
    Morabito, Reimer, Stuart, Baro, Mauricio

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