Mets Prospect Profile: RHSP Joander Suarez

This is the next post in a series intended to bring awareness to some of the lesser-known prospects in the Mets' organization  This series will post a different prospect each weekday at 11:00am EST for the benefit of our fans.

 RHP Joander Suarez. 

Guess who crept into the recently released Mets top 30 on the Mets website at #28?

JOANDER SUAREZ.

He was a guy who, at the beginning of 2023, was likely in no one's Mets Top 50. Maybe in the Top 100, maybe not.  Why?  Injuries.

He started pitching in 2018 as a teenager, ran into TJS, other maladies, and the lost 2020 year.  In the 5 year stretch rom 2018 through 2022, he had 107 innings total. And those 107 innings were not particularly good.

107 innings from 2018 through 2022?  Was his middle name Szapucki?

Suarez was healthy in 2023, finally, shout halleluia everybody, but was horrible for a long time early on.  

The 6'3" 250 pound righty bull slipped to 3-9, 5.69 on August 4. 

That's bad, all the while remembering that his Brooklyn home park being a pitcher’s park.

How do you spell: 

C..A..R..E..E..R    O..V..E..R?   

H..O..P..E..L..E..S..S?

Then the guy goes out, in early July, and screams in defiant reply!!

NO!! NOT OVER, NOT HOPELESS!!

He "screamed" that how?  Thru his suddenly superior pitching results.

Talk is cheap, results are where it’s at.

From July 8 to July 28, he threw 23 innings, allowing just 15 hits, 5 earned runs, and fanning an eye-opening 32.  Hmmm...

Then, August 4, he had a so-so outing. Allowed 4 runs. He's human.

August 11? He threw a 6 inning stunner, a 3 hit, no run, 11 K game.  

"Jake" stats.

Picked up the win in that one. 

Then another shaky game, 4 innings, 4 runs.  He's human.

Was the prior "Jake stats" game a fluke?

It seems not…not based on the following RESULTS:

In his subsequent (and last) 4 starts of 2023, 3 of which were after a late-season promotion to AA, he 

1) throws a no hitter, and 

2) in 24 total innings in those 4 outings, allows a paltry 4 hits, no runs, fans 25, and wins 3 of the 4.

His 3-9, 5.69 turned into 7-9, 4.24, in a flash.

The ball also stays in the park when he pitches.

In 108 IP in 2023, he allowed just 6 HRs and just 12 HRs in 215 career IP. 

(By comparison, Dodgers’ Lance Lynn, while of course facing tougher MLB hitters, allowed a mind-blowing 48 HRs in 186 innings in 2023.)

So, I ask you…how do you rank a Joander Suarez who, in 5 of his last 6 starts spanning 30 innings allowed no runs, just 7 hits and fanned 36? 

A guy who sits at 95 MPH and tightened up on his other pitches in late 2023 to be more effective.

Prior to that July 8 turnaround-beginning start, his ERA was a stratospheric 7.23, so it dropped an incredible 3 runs by year end.  

ERAs are just that - averages, and early in the season, in his first 9 outings (as I presume he was reacclimating himself from prior years' injuries), he had 4 absolute stinkers where he allowed 22 earned runs in 13 innings.  That’s an ERA killer.  The last of those four clunkers was in early June.  

The tide then began to turn.  

His season's finish, factually speaking, was diametrically opposed to his 2023 season's beginning.  

Brutal to Brilliant.

So I ask you again:

Where do you rank him? 

As a break out prospect, or just a guy on an unsustainable hot streak? 

I think the Mets putting him at # 28 is a real good indicator.

The Mets' top 30 is a tough top 30 to get into this year, tougher than most.  A year or two ago, he would have been # 18-20.  In fact, in October, I ranked him as my # 18.  Less talent in a particular year, I think the Mets' site ranks him higher.

He still, remarkably, has just turned 24.  He will, FYI, be a minor league free agent this year.

I will just guess that if he can repeat his 2023 health-wise, he goes 150 innings in AA and AAA this year, gives us a 3.00 ERA and a K per inning, and gets called up to the Mets pen in the second half to see if he can be effective and if they want to try to keep him on the 40 man next winter.  

He could be a tough bullpen arm....remember the low HRs-allowed rate is a bullpen blessing. The Mets pen in 2023 allowed the most homers of any pen (55) by 9 runs last year, despite the pen only throwing the 25th most innings (558) of MLB teams, per MLB stats.  By comparison, the Giants' pen went 150 more innings and allowed 20 fewer HRs, and Atlanta allowed 24 HRs in 588 at bats.