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3/18/24

Reese Kaplan -- David Stearns Walked Into a Financial Mess


For Monday morning, let's take a deep breath and forget for a moment about the sometimes questionable roster assembly decisions made by POBO David Stearns and instead let's see the financial situation he inherited when he agreed with Steve Cohen to take the position and move on from a successful career in Milwaukee.  

If you asked the average Mets fan what the payroll is for the 2024 season they would likely guess somewhere north of $300 million.  Oddly, that answer would be wrong.  It actually falls slightly under $300 million but that excess from long term contracts still associated with the Mets team pushes an $81 million tax which makes the starting point about $380 million.  That's not pocket change even for the uber-wealthy Steve Cohen.  


To begin, let's see what payroll obligations actually exist.  For long term contracts which are guaranteed, the Mets are on the hook for $193 million.  Back in the Wilpon days that amount would have been a fictitious fantasy, but under this regime it's merely a starting point.

Next comes the obligations to players with arbitration which adds another $36 million to the pot and then you have players who have not yet reached arbitration eligibility who tack on another $4 million.  Add it all up and you're looking at $233 million.  

But wait, isn't that well below the nearly $300 owed in pre-tax dollars.  Why, yes, in fact it is.  That is why the payroll picture contains more layers than you might have imagined.

Some might wonder how the $233 million total evolved.  It is, of course, a combination of luring in free agents, drafting players and paying fees associated with ones they signed, making trades, dabbling in the international market and making waiver claims.  David Stearns has indeed used each of these avenues to try to transition the team from its horrific 2023 into a competitive team in 2024 and then a pennant chasing one in 2025.  


Where else did the money go?  Well, you need to count on dollars promised to folks who are now in different clubhouses than the one at Citifield.  Both of the ace pitchers put on the trading block in July will result in over $47 million in Mets payroll obligations.  Add in another $8 million for James McCann and you're up to over $55 million.  Add that to the $233 owed to everyone else and you're up to $288 million.  Then there were buyouts paid to others like Darin Ruf, Eduardo Escobar and additional buyouts.  You can now easily see how the Mets payroll obligation does indeed approach $300 million.  

Now there is some good news at the end of this costly tunnel.  Much of the payroll obligations disappears after the 2024 season ends.  There's no more Max Scherzer nor Justin Verlander money (unless the currently injured future Hall of Famer logs 140 innings which will cause another payment to happen).  Even James McCann's share disappears.  In addition, consider how many short term or option-oriented contracts the Mets are now carrying which means much more flexibility in payroll is indeed on the near horizon for 2025.  

By some estimates, the total payroll obligation will drop to $172 million.  Now obviously they need to make important and expensive decisions about some high-dollar players like Pete Alonso, prospective free agent Juan Soto and others, but there are also going to be a lot of roster vacancies, not all of which can be fulfilled by people in Binghamton or Syracuse.  

Without delving too deeply into who is owed how much, the fact it that there are only seven players sucking up most of that $172 million total.  In theory it would give the Mets nearly $70 million to spend on other players, but of course that could change if they opted to trade away any of their current long term obligations or retain any of their free agents to be.  

Then you also have to consider the possibility of securing early someone like Francisco Alvarez with a deal mirroring what the Braves and other savvy organizations do to buy out arbitration and free agency.  It gets better still in 2026 but then more of the long term obligations also disappear which means more lockers to fill with ballplayers.    


The fact is that while some of us (me, in particular) have been highly critical of the seeming inertia and take-a-chance player acquisitions made by David Stearns, he did not have that never ending supply of money that other GMs (Billy Eppler in particular) had at their disposal.  

11 comments:

  1. Morning

    1. I heard Steve Cohen say yesterday that he expects the Mets to make the playoffs this season. What the hell else would he say? "No, I think my team is for shite and will barely stay out of the NL East cellar."

    2. I'm being told that negotiations between the Mets and agents for Francisco Alvarez continue to work on an extended contract, with the goal of getting this done by opening day.

    3. Everyone that is important in the front office of this team continues to gush about Dom Hamel'stwo inning outing in the first Future Stars (or whatever) Games. "He looks like a young Matt Harvey" one told me.

    4. I think the quicker than expected emergency of Hamel, Tyler Sturat, and Christian Scott have created a really good chance that we will never see Joey Lucky Luchhesi again walking along Roosevelt Avenue.

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  2. The money also must come down to not have another 10 slot drop in the 2025 draft. When you want a team to grow from within, that sort of penalty is a killer. at least more often than not.

    Mack, I would sure like to know why Joey Lucchese wasn’t more ready that’s a real puzzler to me.

    I agree that Dom Hamill looked very good, but my Matt Harvey coming out of that game was Brandon Sproat. That was some first pro inning, huh? I made sure to tell my brother to catch sprout in action. He was very impressed.

    I think David Stearns is doing pretty magical stuff with severe financial reset constraints. I think the game plan is what he said it is if the Mets are somehow, competitive meaning close to a wildcard come mid July, I think they will be adding and not subtracting at the deadline. Of course maybe that addition at the deadline will be people like Gilbert or Acuna or Williams or Scott or Vasil or Hamel. Only time will tell.

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    1. Coming to camp out of shape just isn't tolerance any longer in this game. Especially since so many train their butts off each off season and report early.

      ByevJoey. Sending Wase instructions to the LI Ducks complex

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  3. I thought it was reported that Lucchesi came to camp having lost a lot of weight. Now if that was due to illness rather than diet/exercise, then I could see the out of shape suggestion.

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  4. Now, Joey is in AAA, and will have to position himself to be the first call up…or a trade chip. Some teams will find themselves in dire pitching straits before long.

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    1. Frankly, Cuse could be stacked and he may have a hard time holding on to a slot there

      Possible cut

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  5. Yes, Cano is finished.

    Luchessi was down about 5 mph when pitching the other day. Just not ready for games yet.

    Would y’all do this, right now? Alonso, Luchessi, and Parada to Seattle for Woo or Miller and another low minors kid? I would.

    It’s ironic that the one area everyone agreed would be the Mets strength, is appearing to be their weakest: offense. Whatif Nimmo doesn’t repeat and Lindor doesn’t go 30/30? Now what?

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    1. And what if Pete, Jeff and Marte return to their career #s? The whatifs work both ways. That's why it takes 162 games to answer them. WGB!

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  6. Unless Seattle wants to jettison Luis Castillo instead?

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