Let’s take a journey back some 39 years to 1985. The Mets were about to turn into World Series champions in 1986. They were very much a front line contending team. When the season came to an end and the annual auction of the best of the best in free agency began, something interesting happened. Many of the top level talents were not getting offers.
Sounds familiar, huh? In 2024 with Spring Training underway conspicuous players like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and J.D. Martinez are somehow still on the unemployment line.
Wait, haven’t we seen this before?
Why, yes, indeedy...think back to that fateful mid 1980s free agent period of inertia and you’ll recall that the owners were found guilty of collusion when it came to spending money on talents. The architect of this strategy was not some greedy owner who’d rather lose than spend money, but baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth. It all came back to an interesting rhetorical question the MLB chief posed to the owners during the off season.
According to reports that have surfaced since then, Ueberroth offered up a potential scenario for baseball team owners. What he said to them was suppose that you had a red button on the table you could press and it would guarantee you a World Series championship but you would lose $10 million. Then suppose there was a black button you could press and it would only guarantee middle level standing and you would make $4 million. Which button would you choose?
Ueberroth said that the vast majority of owners would push the red button because they were better fans than businessmen and as a result the free agent marketplace was going wild with long term deals and never before seen rates for players whose skill naturally is not guaranteed any more than their health or age is. What the commissioner wanted the owners to understand was how to make more money as the focus of running their teams, not trying to fly a pennant flag over their stadiums.
Was this approach with the owners effective? Well, as the Spring Training in 1986 approached only four of the 35 free agents had changed teams. Kinda curious, no?
When the league essentially fined teams for violating this new approach to profit making it was certain at some point it would surface about what was going on. The real case in point was Kirk Gibson who had an outstanding year in 1985 when he hit .287 with a .518 slugging percentage for his employer, the Detroit Tigers. Oh yeah...he also had an OPS of 140. Guess what he and J.D. Martinez had in common? If you said “No job!” then step right down to collect your prize.
Since this approach was indeed making the owners more money it got worse before it got better. In the following season it was Andre Dawson who was oddly not courted by any other teams and was forced to return to his previous employer while accepting a pay cut. The red flag that caught everyone’s attention is that 75% of free agents who got contracts were only offered a single year. And yes, before you ask, baseball profits indeed rose again.
By 1988 it all came to a head and new commissioner Fay Vincent chided the owners accordingly, “The single biggest reality you guys have to face up to is collusion. You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.”
This history lesson is relevant as people are wondering in particular about the Scott Boras clientele who have not landed the types of contracts that were anticipated for them. Is there communication between the owners and the commissioner's office to dissuade these expensive contracts from being secured? It’s kind of hard to say given the numbers seen for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
So as Mets fans sit back and ponder whether or not the lack of participation in top level player acquisitions and the corresponding costs involved is going to lead to October baseball, or has the club opted for the AAAA level of players and the black button after all?
There have been very few Branch Rickey or Walter O'Malley in this game. It's always been about money controlled by greedy bastards
ReplyDeleteThe 2024 Mets are spending more than every other team this year. Thus, they should have the best team
Bad choices
You can't keep throwing bad money...
Defrost the ice box.
Throw out the frozen freeze burned bagels
Restock with new fresh meat and fish
Seaver after leading the Mets to the World Series and going 25-7 made $800,000. As such, I have little sympathy for the high wage earners today, but plenty for the lower years guys like Tylor Megill.
ReplyDeletePlayers like JD Martinez need to realize this: baseball teams, face, incredible luxury, tax money if they spend a lot. All the big spending teams seem to be over the cap. to me, if their agents, and those players didn’t have their heads up where the sun don’t shine, they would’ve realized that this could’ve happened, and not shot for the sun, moon and stars and signed early for perhaps less than what they hope to get, because it’s like the game musical chairs when the music stops somebody’s not gonna have a seat. no sympathy. If JD Martinez gets one year for 20 million, no sympathy. He probably could’ve gotten three years 40 million if he had signed early, but he probably wanted three years 75 million which nobody was willing to pay. No sympathy.
I think those players have not been signed due to the very high demands of Scott Boras.
ReplyDeleteAll three are his clients right?
Boras likes to take it as far as too far
DeleteI can't add much to what Mack and Tom have written!
ReplyDeleteI would love to see an detailed analysis of all the free agent signings over the last 40+ years. For every good signing (Carlos Beltran), there are probably two duds (Jason Bay, Vince Coleman).
I think with the really crazy money flying around in sports now, there may be a bit of a market adjustment over the next few years.
Is financial sanity = collusion?
All the owners are extremely rich.
DeleteThey could pause the spending in order to get it in line.
But then they would have to love the game more than the till
Re: Martinez
ReplyDeleteBad agent
(Loosely related to Bad Robot)
R69, the Bay deal wasn't bad - if he had gone to Philly, it probably would have been equitable.
ReplyDeleteThe dopes bought into the "when he hits them, they'll go out of any park" mentality, which wasn't true. Citifield was NOT the place for a power hitting FA to go in 2010 when they had the original extra base hit robing dimensions. Bay lost some early HRs (deep walls + dead air) changed his swing, his offense sank, he pressed and tried too hard in the outfield - hit the wall - concussion - game over.
But, to your point, I think 20% of long term deals are not even good in the first two years (Arenado), and most are terrible at the end (Cano).
Do I want Pete if he is huge bucks, 8 years? No. I love Pete, but odds are his last 3 or 4 years he'll have real slippage. 4 years, $125 million? As of right now, sure.
But, I'd rather have Soto. Nearly 30 WAR thru his age 24 season? That is something.
Adding a note, even with Soto, I do not blindly offer him a blank check. Why? His numbers were phenomenal, better by a decent margin at ages 19-22 than they were the last 2 seasons. Look for yourselves.
ReplyDeleteMaybe this year, he explodes. But let's see.
People like me are asking the fans to root this year for the Pirates. That ain't easy to do.
ReplyDeleteHow about the Mets draft only pitchers in the first 10 rounds? We have 82 potential infielders and a ton of catchers. Infielders that get squeezed out can become outfielders.
ReplyDeletePitching, unless a can't miss hitter is sitting in front of us. End up with too many pitchers? What better trade commodity?
They basically have done that for awhile
DeleteI added a comment to my column from yesterday just now.
ReplyDeleteI will put it here also - if this keeps up with Baty and Vientos, they may need a bat like JDM, although they clearly do not want to spend the $$ for tax reasons:
Before everyone thinks 6 for 36 Baty/Vientos will suddenly relax and hit like the Dickens, Jarred Kelenic, whom many assumed was past his MLB competence hurdle, is 1 for 18 (a single) this spring.
All 3 could start hitting tomorrow. With each passing day, I think that none are Gelof or Anthony Volpe or Corbin Carroll.
I definitely hope that Baty and Vientos prove that to be unneeded concern.
It’s ironic that until the Boras free agents weren’t signing, there wasn’t collusion. The Yankees offered Snell 6/$150, but he was insulted. Keke Hernandez opened up the can of worms in the media about collusion based on his experience without taking the time to think that he hasn’t been more than a 1 WAR player in several years.
ReplyDeleteTom, Tim Britton's forecasting 14/$540MM for Soto. Are you still in on that? I really don’t care how much players make, I don’t care how much Owner’s make, and I know they don’t care if I live or die. But, I must admit, hearing people turn down money like that is comical. Go back to one year contracts? That hysterical too if you’re a player, probably awesome if you’re an owner.
The Pirates are my second favorite team this year. It’s time. The Orioles third, but everyone expects them to win.
Tom, it is my belief that both are pressing too much and may need a change of scenery. You can’t rush a player in New York from the minors, and you can’t just sit him when you’re an a-hole manager in the big leagues. Wilmer Flores is a prime example of that. I feel like Baty has gotten a much better chance than Vientos. My patience would be shorter with him.
ReplyDeleteHard to sympathize with players demanding exorbitant contracts and asking for multiple years. With few exceptions, I'm against handling out long term contracts.
ReplyDeleteLet’s examine this latest bit of news from MLBTR:
ReplyDelete“ March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.
It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.”
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If Giolito does in fact have a UCL tear, that’s Tommy John and a 14-18 month window of recovery. Obviously, he activates his player option and makes a cool $38.5MM for two years without probably throwing a pitch.stuff happens? You bet it does. Sorry Red Sox.
Stephen Strasburg is making, and has been making for two years, $35MM per year while being diagnosed unable to pitch: SSI Disability, I guess. The Nationals are on the hook for this for two more years. They asked him if they can make this a deferral but Strasburg refused. They asked Stausburg to go to camp and coach the younger players, but Strousburg refuses. The Boras client is being threatened with not being paid and he doesn’t like that.
Gus
ReplyDeleteRe: Soto $$$
that's gonna be some bitch F-F-150 he's gonna buy
Wonder if Strasburg has a disabled placard for his windshield
ReplyDeleteI would NEVER give ANY pitcher a lot of years. Period. They drop like flies.
ReplyDeleteSOTO? No, if he has a 3rd straight very good, but not great year. Yes otherwise. Why? He doesn’t pitch.
I need to correct my Seaver comment above. After his Cy Young 1969, they paid him an absurdly low $80,000, not $800,000.
ReplyDeleteMack, he isn’t buying a F-150, he’s buying a Bentley
ReplyDelete