Paul Articulates – What is the exchange rate for Starling?

Yesterday morning Reese wrote about the positive surprises on the Mets this season.  Among his “not too surprising” examples was the resurgence of Starling Marte’s hitting.

Marte seems to be back to physical health after a down season in 2023 when his play appeared to be affected by an incomplete recovery from off-season abdominal surgery.  As of Wednesday night, he was slashing .267/.321/.413 in 82 plate appearances with a trio of homers, six walks, and three stolen bases.

Starling Marte has been a dynamic player for his entire career.  He has won two gold gloves (Pirates 2015, 2016), a Wilson Defensive Player of the Year (Pirates, 2015), and represented the National League twice in the all-star game (Pirates 2016, Mets 2022).  With a career batting average of .287, career OPS of .787, and a 34.6 WAR, he is a very valuable baseball player.  He was a great acquisition for the Mets in 2021.

I will shock you by suggesting that the Mets trade him now. I say, “Sell high”!

What?  Is Paul suggesting that the Mets trade Starling Marte just as he is getting going again?  Does Paul remember what happened in the end of the 2022 season when Marte went down with an injury?  How could this be?

It is true – I believe that the Mets should move Starling now.  He is worth a lot because he can immediately contribute to a team that needs some outfield help.  A trade for Marte could return some pretty impressive pitching prospects or a legitimate battle-tested long reliever.

Why move him?  Well, for one thing the Mets have a gem in fourth outfielder Tyrone Taylor (.297/.341/.432) who can also play great defense and hit.  Taylor is young (just turned 30), and is paid $2.025M, which is much less than Marte’s $19.5M this year and next.  

Marte is 35 going on 36, has had some injury problems, and because of that he seems to have been practicing “selective hustle” in my opinion.  There are balls he just does not go all out for in the outfield and there are at-bats where he just doesn’t get down the baseline on ground balls like he should if his playing time depended on it.  

I will cite two recent cases in point – both in recent games.  A long fly caroms off the wall and ricochets towards the infield.  Rather than sprint after the ball to limit a triple to a double, he gracefully jogs, retrieves, and there is no play.  In another, a fly ball to his left takes a long run, which he does not sprint, and he arrives at the ball with his body in an awkward position leading to a drop and a three-base error.  Could both of those plays have been outs?  

Maybe there is a chance on the first play, definitely on the second one.  I am not accusing him of not trying, but I am observing a guy that used to have awesome speed and motor not making the all-out plays anymore.  Possibly he is a little cautious so he does not hurt something, but I don’t see Bader or Nimmo or Taylor being cautious.  

I have watched Drew Gilbert do a Lenny Dykstra impression in centerfield for the Rumble Ponies last year – the heck with caution, he’s gunning for the major leagues.

Speaking of Gilbert, there are a handful of outfielders in our minor league system that are working their way up quickly that need a shot to show what they can do.  Drew Gilbert is the #2 prospect.  

Jett Williams is the #1 prospect and although he has been playing a lot of infield since joining the franchise, he also started in center field in the Spring Breakout game and told me that he expects to split time between 2B, SS, and CF in Binghamton this year.  

Ryan Clifford, the #4 prospect, has been playing some LF in spring training and he brings a powerful bat to the table.  Alex Ramirez, after a down year, is tearing it up in AA.  Ronny Mauricio will return next year with the ability to play outfield.  You get my drift.

To summarize my position, let me make some clear statements:

1) Starling Marte is a proven high-performance baseball player that right now commands a lot of value.

2) Starling Marte is in his mid-30s, and is showing some signs of losing his edge – maybe physical, maybe mental.

3) The Mets have some well-regarded outfield talent in their minor league system and they have some MLB outfield talent already on the MLB roster – namely Taylor and Jeff McNeil.

4) Starling Marte is being paid $19.5M this year and next, and potential replacements would make between $2M and the MLB minimum salary of around $750k.

So why not sell high?  Get some return for a guy that will only decline from here.  Reduce the luxury tax. This is not 2022, and Marte is not going to be the difference between winning the NL East and falling in the wild card series.  It may be early, but when other teams who may covet a top outfielder like Marte look at the stats they see value.  When I look at the on-field action, I see a hint of decline.  There will never be a better time.  David Stearns knows; Carlos Mendoza knows; do they have the guts to pull the trigger?