MACK - Initial Thoughts on Draft/Mock

 

                                        MACK - Initial Thoughts on Draft/Mock 

 

This is my first thoughts on the July draft and a quick mock. 

First of all, not too much prime talent in this one. The first six players are ones you just can’t pass on. The next 10 are definitely first round material. From there on, it’s a crap shoot. 

It is a bat driven draft that possiby has the most first baseman talent that I have ever seen. 

But, on the downside, there are ony two five star pitchers. The third is actually a first baseman. 

Many of you know that, over the years, I had become sort of a draft expert. I had a separate site just for the draft and hundred of high school and college players followed me on X. I slowed down in this area the past two seasons, but I keep a keen awareness on who and what is being written out there about the draft and the players involved. 

So, here are my initial thoughts on this draft… 

It’s no big secret who the top three players are going to be in this draft. I have Georgia 3B/OF Charlie Condon going 1.1. I consider his bat in the Ohtani/Betts comp area. Downside would be Trout. 

At 1.2, I have Oregon State 2B, Travis Bazzana. Bat wise, not that far behind Condon. 

At 1.3, I have the potential two way player, 1B/SP Jac Caglianone. A sick hitter and a fastball clocked as high as 101. 

Now… I’m going in a different direction than the experts. Yes, there are quality bats that deserved the next picks, but, because there really are only two uber starters in this draft. If I had the 1.4 pick, I would pick one of these because I am sure the scouts in my draft room would have told me that the pitching talent almost falls off a cliff when my next pick comes around. 

This, in my opinion, will raise the stakes on the only other top pitcher. 

So, with my 1.4 pick, Wake Forest RHP, Chase Burns, followed quickly by Arkansas LHP, Hagen Smith, at 1.5. 

I go back to Wake Forest for my pick at 1.6 and call out 1B Nick Kurtz. He’s 6-5, hits a ton of homers, and has a +.300 batting average. What’s not to love? 

My pick for 1.7 is TAMU OF Braden Montgomery. Many have him much higher than this. I simply don’t because I think others warrant being picked early. 70 grade raw power. 

My 1.8 pick is Wake Forest SS/OF Seaver King. Have him earlier on this list than most. The 6-0/190 righty produced gaudy exit velocities, posting a slash like of .411/.457/.699/1.155, and 11-HR. This season (as of 5-19), he has “mellowed out” at .319/.382/.612/.994, with 16-HR. Only 31-Ks in 259-PA. Lower numbers caused lower projections but I still like him a lot. 

At 1.9, I project West Virginia  2B/3B JJ Wetherholt. Can play all three infield positions but projected to either third or second. ++ bat-to-ball skills. Has had hamstring issues which concern me and has caused me to lower him in my projections. 

At 1.10. I go to my first prep player. Valley View HS 5-6 OF Slade Caldwell has, what they call, “dynamic athleticism”. ++ runner. Can definitely mash. Projects to left field due to limited arm. 

At 1.11, I have someone others have higher. East Carolina RHP Trey Yesavage. Fastball hits 97. ++ slider. Throws strikes. Going up the mocks. 

My next prep star at 1.12 comes from the top school Harvard-Westlake HS. SS Bryce Rainer is 6-3/200 with legitimate game power. Corkscrew swing may come back at him some day. A pure infielder that may graduate someday to third. 

At 1.13, I have Saguaro HS LHP Cam Caminiti. Will be 17 on draft day. Also has significant raw power. Already touching 98. Tremendous slider. 

At 1.14, comes Jackson Prep SS/OF Konnor Griffin. 6-4/200. Barely 18 on draft day. Projects long range to be an outfielder. Strong arm. + runner. 60 grade game power. 

Next comes another preppy at 1.15, Independence HS SS Wyatt Sanford. 6-1/175. Growing bat speed, but does not project to become a slugger. Projected to stay a middle infielder due to athletic action on the dirt. Beautiful swing but needs to clean up approach on breaking balls.   

Back to college, for our 1.16 pick, Florida State 3B Cameron Smith. Big dude at 6-3/240. Extremely physical. Solid bat-to-ball skills against quality competition. Solid runner. Huge throwing arm. 

At 1.17, I have Oklahoma State OF Carson Benge. Accomplished 2-way player. Ton of bat speed with considerable projection remaining. Loud exit velocities. Hits 97 with fastball. 

And at 1.18, I finish off the pre-Mets picks with Florida State OF James Tibbs III. Has been a big hitter for three seasons. ++ ability to turn around high velocity fastballs.  Rated as a reasonably complete player. .290/25-HR potential.

 

This leaves the following five players still on the board when the Mets pick at 1.19:

 

Iowa RHSP Brody Brecht - If you were to build a Mount Rushmore for the best pure stuff college baseball has ever seen, there's a very real argument that Brecht would deserve to be on it. Most would agree Brecht has the most electric fastball in the 2024 class; at least at this early stage. He's been up to 101, sitting 97-99 in starts. It's a metric-monster and is only reinforced by the elite whiff rates he generates off the pitch. 

He'll mix in an absolutely disgusting slider with immense depth, inducing gaudy swing-and-miss numbers. He'll also throw a traditional curveball extremely hard in the mid-80s. Brecht has a chance to possess an elite fastball and two plus-or-better breaking balls. That said, the control and command right now are below average and walks may ultimately preclude him from pitching in a conventional starting pitcher role at the next level.

 

Stantord C Malcolm Moore - Moore was one of the most celebrated recruits to get to school following the 2022 MLB Draft. A consensus Top-2 round prospect that year, Moore elected to head to Palo Alto and honor his Stanford committment as many Cardinal commits do. That appears to have been a good choice. Offensively, Moore grades out metrically quite well with high contact rates, low chase rates, a slow heartbeat at the plate and a long, proven track record of hitting the ball in the air. 

He's flashed above average raw power and scouts believe he could eventually tap into plus raw power at the next level as he continues to get stronger. His chops behind the plate continue to improve as well. Entering the season evaluators questioned the catch-and-throw and whether he could hold the running game. 

That's looked quite refined this spring with demonstrated improved arm strength and a quicker transfer. The receiving is still average at best, though most scouts now firmly believe he'll catch at the next level and offer at least a solid average bat to compliment a lineup.

 

Chaparral RHP Brayton Doughty - Doughty was arguably the biggest winner at Area Code Games in 2023, flashing massive stuff en route to a dominant performance. He'll reach back for 96, holding 94-95 over multiple innings and settling in 91-94 after the fourth inning. Doughty produces above average spin rates on his fastball, though it's a bit of a dead-zone shape and can get hit a bit when not commanded on the black or top rail. The breaking ball here is the real headline grabber, a 3000 rpm hammer that's been up to 87, consistently 84-85 with bat-missing shape. It's comfortably a 60-grade curveball, and could track up into the double-plus range with polish and further refinement in shape and consistency. 

He's been working to fold in a changeup this spring. He sells the pitch. It's got solid average upside. Doughty isn't just a "stuff" guy either. He fills up the zone and loves varying his delivery using stutters, pauses and multiple leg lifts to throw off a batter's timing. It's quite advanced and effective considering his feel for pounding the strike zone. Doughty has a strong, workhorse frame with squared-off, broad shoulders and strength in his lower half. He's an animal of a pitching prospect and could figure into the equation on day one of the draft.

 

LSU 3B Tommy White - White burst onto the scene as a true freshman at NC State slugging homer after homer, igniting the nation, earning the moniker "Tommy Tanks" along the way. That nickname does ring true as perhaps nobody in the 2024 class hits the ball as hard and with as much consistency than does White. He's a slugger in every way. But he's also a promising pure hitter with contact rates that continue to improve. Scouts do want to see the swing rates, aggressiveness, and willingness to stay inside the strike zone move in a more polished direction in 2024. 

White is extremely reluctant to take walks despite often times never seeing a fastball in the strike zone. Even still, he posts gaudy contact rates on pitches outside of the strike zone, a testament to his elite bat-to-ball skills. It's top-of-the-class hand speed and elite barrel awareness. There's still development ahead in terms of becoming a more refined hitter if he's to reach his Pete Alonso comparisons at the next level, but all the building blocks are present, if not crude in current nature. This is what 80-grade raw power looks like.

Defensively, White is likely destined for first base where his limited range and first step won't be tested like they would be at third base. It's a large frame that he'll need to keep in check as he ages to ensure he doesn't lose the athleticism and quick hands at the plate that make him great. White has a chance to bat in the middle of a big league lineup for a very long time.

 

Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci - Santucci is an impressive southpaw for the Blue Devils with a real shot to stick on to start at the next level. That said, he has struggled to stay healthy at times in his Duke career, something evaluators are monitoring closely as July approaches. Scouts love what they see from him on the mound. The fastball features good riding shape up to 97, sitting 93-95 later in outings. 

His slider shows good depth and can be tough for hitters to read off his fastball with late, deep break. It projects an above average weapon at the next level and should perform on any stage thanks to the effectiveness of his fastball. The changeup is also promising with fading action away from righty bats and good depth, though he's still ironing out consistent feel for the pitch. It generally lives in a firm upper-80s bucket. 

That said, Santucci has a conviction and willingness to throw the pitch whenever he wants. There's a fringier curveball in there too, but for now he's primarily a three-pitch lefty with more projection ahead of him and a track record of pitching big innings in the ACC. 

Santucci will need to shore up controlling the baseball as he's had a tendency to let walks extend innings at different points in his collegiate career, including in 2024. It's squarely below-average control at this stage, something that will need to improve quickly if he's to start at the next level.