Sometimes it becomes more difficult to find an untraveled road over which there have not been countless explorations already made. Have we talked about the Mets and the starting pitching issues? Yup. Have we talked about the third base platoon and/or Battle Royale? Done that, too. Have we explored trading away some of the core assets? Indeed.
So today let us look into the crystal ball and project who will and who will not be on the roster on August 1st. Bear in mind that the club even with its recent spate of haplessness (or hopelessness) is still within traveling distance to the Wildcard entry to the playoffs. Still, even if everything breaks completely right for the club, the likelihood of overcoming that current gap of under 3 games looks less and less likely.
So as the calendar flips from July into August, who will be here?
The Dueling Franciscos
Despite his again horrific start in the batting average department, there is no denying the enthusiasm, speed, defense and hard-to-move contract obligation that is Mr. Lindor. He is clearly one of the top 5 shortstops in all of baseball even when he starts off the 2024 season in sub-Mendoza batting.
While everyone was pleasantly surprised at what Mr. Alvarez brought to the team out of injury necessity last year, no one really expected the position of catcher to morph into a proverbial black hole. Yes, we have seen some offense from Tomas Nido and his usual stellar defense, but Omar Narvaez has been way less than what Billy Eppler thought he had snared going into the 2023 season. Expect to see Alvarez and Nido as the August catching duo. Don´t expect to see an allegedly hot hitting catcher with commendable defensive skills on the roster anymore.
Outfielders Who Will Be Here Include...
Brandon Nimmo is a starter and although his batting average isn´t where they would like it to be, he has shown good at-bats, solid defense, increased power and better use of his baserunning speed. His salary is probably a touch higher than it should be but there is a need for some continuity even when the roster is overhauled and Nimmo earned his right to remain a Met.
The only other outfielder likely to survive the July trade deadline is 4th outfielder Tyrone Taylor. He is rock solid defensively, has shown the ability to hit the long ball and actually has decent baserunning speed. He is the kind of player who won´t embarrass the club if he winds up starting due to rest or injury to others.
I Don´t Know — Third Base!
Let´s not split hairs here. As a hot corner defender, Mark Vientos reminds many of J.D. Davis and other failed third base experiments. He should not be there but hopefully will remain in the lineup almost daily regardless of whether a lefty or righty is starting in order to ascertain if his bat is as good as it sometimes has seemed. Come August 1st, he might have to shift across the diamond to play first base if they indeed move Pete Alonso for a passel of prospects. The other option would be having him take over at DH if it is J.D. Martinez leaving on a jet plane.
That brings me to a very odd conclusion here. Third base on August 1st and for the next 60 days should totally belong to Brett Baty. Make him understand that it is essentially his last Mets gasp of hope for a career at Citifield because Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams and others are hot on his heels for 2025.
Figure that unless Christian Scott totally does himself in by emulating his last start several times, he is here for the future rotation. He makes no money and was cruising on his way to the majors, so they need to ascertain if he is on the road to the top half of the rotation.
Kodai Senga is a mystery as far as his recovery goes, but I´m foolishly optimistic enough to think that by August 1st he should be ready to sit atop the rotation for the remaining two months of this season. The Mets need to see that he is indeed healthy and still capable of pitching at a near elite level.
Given that he holds an option for his own future, expect that Sean Manaea is still going to be a part of the 2024 rotation as the season draws to a close. His performance has been better than expected with a 3-1 record and a 3.11 ERA. The control (like most Mets pitchers) has not been good but you can´t argue with the overall results.
I would expect to see Jose Butto back in the rotation as the club needs to determine if he is indeed a part of the Queens baseball future or if he is to become trade bait in the offseason.
Expect that if he is healthy Tylor Megill is also likely going to see a great many starts to help ascertain yet again which Megill will show up on the mound. His lifetime numbers are pretty bad but his minor league and spring training numbers this year were decidedly better. He too could be part of the future or part of a trade package.
Edwin Diaz was given a stellar contract for stellar pitching. Then he missed an entire year. Now he is in purgatory, not even being entrusted with 8th inning assignments, let alone closing. I am pretty confident he will overcome whatever has pushed him off the top of the heap and given his salary he is a closer for the future for the Mets.
Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley and Jorge Lopez may not make anyone else reach for bottles of champagne, but they have been far better than anyone expected. They are not highly regarded enough to fetch much in return for trades, so I would expect them all to be here.
Drew Smith is in a similar boat given his overall career track record, but right now health is the primary issue to resolve. He also would not net anything significant in trade, so I would expect he will also be around.
The surprising name here is emergency relief pitcher David Peterson. The club has ample arms to start games but with Jake Diekman not being of Brooks Raley´s calibre (and Raley done for the year), the club is in need of another southpaw. Other mediocre starters like Dennis Eckersley made the transition to the pen later in their careers. It may likely be time for Peterson to do the same.
Conspicuous By Not Being On These Groupings...
- Pete Alonso
- Jeff McNeil
- Omar Narvaez
- Harrison Bader
- Starling Marte
- Luis Severino
- Adrian Houser
- Adam Ottavino
Any of these players can and should be on the trading block if the club continues to play more like it is 2023 than like it was 2022. When the core isn´t working then you build a new core. ´Nuff Said.
A mega-blow up could include all the guys at the bottom of your list plus Edwin, if the idea is to crush the salary cap problem.
ReplyDeleteEric Orze has pitched very well in AAA, after his first two wild relief outings in sub-Arctic temperatures.. He might not close if Diaz left, but he can be a bullpen arm. I definitely addQuintana to the bye bye list, unless he is the lefty pen arm and Peterson goes into the rotation, which I’d prefer.
Acuna should be ready for 2B by August 1. He might not be great, but would be adequate. McNeil, who homered twice recently, might get hot enough to build trade value, with the idea of an edible contract to another team.
Trayce Thompson could fill in an OF spot if Drew Gilbert (or Rhylan Thomas) are not ready.
Break the cap draft penalty…and do a large reset.
Lindor May be an incredible albatross here, with seemingly declining skills and 7.7 years left on his $34 million per year deal. Seems immovable, but if he gets hot, could they trade him and eat $125 million?
Reads eerily like my Blow It Up pitch which is updated at 10am
ReplyDeleteSomeone help me out here
ReplyDeleteTheoretically can the Mets pay off Lindor $125mil with a lump sum payment and then not have him counted in the 2025 salaries?
I think you'll see JD Martinez traded. A contender could really use his bat. Then, as mentioned in the article, you'll see Vientos as full time DH. I think Pete will be here til the end of the season and Cohen will offer him a nice contract, for better or worse. Just my opinion
ReplyDeleteMack, good question. I would think yes. It would be the talk of baseball.. And a few asked me, I think Lindor has perhaps 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 solid years left. I compare him to Jose Reyes, who won batting title in his last year with the Mets, and at the age of 35 hit 189 decline is inevitable.
ReplyDeleteJon G, perhaps Pete stays. But if they want to get under the salary cap, and go totally radical, they might well want to get rid of Pete at the deadline. I will say one thing: I see so many guys, a significant majority, who fed as they move into their early 30s. Pete is not even there yet, and had a low average 2021 and so far not so great 2024. I’d be more than OK with giving Pete three years at 35 to 40,000,000. And that’s it.
ReplyDeleteI think they should trade Pete also, but I just don't see Cohen doing it for fear he'll set the world on fire somewhere else and some fans will crucify him for it. 3 years would be a fear offer, but Boras will want more years
DeleteFair offer
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one here who likes Sevy? He has shown all-star ability when healthy, and looks healthy. He looks like a keeper (and possible extension candidate) to me.
ReplyDeleteAnd in a small sample, Josh Walker has looked good as LH2 in the pen.
But when Smith, Peterson and Senga return, that's too many pitchers to keep. Which 3 will go?
This was a thoughtfully assembled post, and I agree with most of your assertions. But ugh, what a state to be in where we have not yet reached Memorial day and we are talking about all these players to move at the trade deadline.
ReplyDeleteI can't ignore the reality (as much as I try when I tune in the game every night), so many from the core must go, and the youth will enter, and the projections for success in 2025 will slide to the right.