Now we’re back for round two in looking at the Mets pitching both for starters and relievers. There are some nice numbers out there from folks at the minor league level, but the major league pitching numbers have grown as unpredictable and inconsistent as has the hitting.
Starting Pitchers
- Luis Severino is a bit of a paradox for the team. He has indeed pitched much better than many anticipated after his disastrous 2023. He has also remained quite healthy. He is on a single year deal and likely will want to cash in on a 3-4 year deal as he enters free agency again at age 31 for the 2025 season. Extend him now or sell high.
- Sean Manaea (last start excepted) has pitched even better than current staff ace Severino. His opt out will most likely be triggered at year end so he is another one with whom you should entertain a sell high mentality. If you hang onto him you get nothing. If you give him up in late July, you get something for giving up just August and September.
- Jose Quintana is a free agent to be and not pitching well at all. While some teams might find his history and left handedness still desirable, however he is not going to net much in return. There would be no QO at year’s end so he would simply walk away and the Mets get nothing. I hate to say it, but a fringe low level minor leaguer in return for him is not a bad thought.
- Tylor Megill is being given this season to see whether or not he can both remain healthy and pitch at a contender ptiching staff level. Thus far his first couple of appearances have been good. Still, his health and mediocre career stats suggest the return for him would be minimal, so plan to keep him and pencil him in for 2025 as well.
- David Peterson is a left handed carbon copy of the Tylor Megill situation. With no options remaining, he’s here for the long haul for 2024 and likely has a penciled in rotation spot for 2025 if he can stay healthy and pitch as he did after recovery.
Relief Pitchers
- Reed Garrett is not someone from whom you would expect a team leading 5 victories. At age 31 he has been flt out awful prior to this year. Even with his 2024 stats helping make things look brighter, for his career he is 6-3 with a 5.52 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP and a batting average against of .293. Ouch! Then all of the sudden this year the ERA is down to 3.10, he’s winning games, the BAA is .239 and the WHIP is 1.38. Given his salary and his thus far markedly improved numbers he should be around for 2025.
- Adam Ottavino has been more good than bad as a New York Met but he picked the worst possible season to show his vulnerability to the stolen base, the strike zone and the batting average against. He was signed for less than expected and is pitching below that level. If another team is willing to gamble he will rebound, then let him go and give Reed Garrett the eighth inning responsibility.
- Sean Reid-Foley has been an oft-injured reliever who has flashed his potential more than once. Right now he appears healthy and the results for this season aside from issuing too many walks have been rather good. He is offering up a .196 BAA and holds an ERA of just 2.25. He should be on the short list of relievers for 2025 as well.
- Josh Walker is a lefty. His minor league numbers have been great this year. The major league version has been not even close. Turning 30 next year he is at best a fringe invite to spring training but he’s not on the radar as someone for a serious future in Queens.
- Dedniel Nunez was pretty much unknown to the Mets fans prior to his few call-ups this year. His minor league stats have been highly impressive and in his very limited major league stints he is sporting a 3.00 ERA over his 9 innings pitched. Throughout his minor league career he was nothing eye popping until 2024 in Syracuse. Thus far he looks like a potential member of the 2025 pen.
- Danny Young is left handed and had some nice numbers upstate. His major league experience has been limited across a few teams but he has always posted good stats. He should most definitely be considered a contender for the pen for the rest of this season and in 2025. Maybe he’s a late bloomer like Brooks Raley turned out to be.
- Jake Diekman has always posted credible if not closer-level numbers throughout his long major league career. With the Mets he has a $4 million one-year deal with an option for next season at his age 38 that kicks in automatically if he makes 58 appearances. He is less than halfway through the season with 23 appearances so it would appear short of front office ordered benching he will hit that second year.
- Adrian Houser is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. He has always been a 4th/5th starter type but this season his performance recast him as a long man in the bullpen. His career 4.23 ERA which includes his horrific number over 7.00 with the Mets is actually better than what Megill and Peterson have done, but they would be coming back for much less money and more potential. 2024 seems a one and done year with the Mets as he enters free agency for 2025.
On the IL
- Kodai Senga will be back eventually. Nothing much more to say.
- Edwin Diaz may or may not have an arm issue corresponding to his recent terrible performance. He will also be back eventually.
- Shintaro Fujinami is looking at a one and done year with the organization.
- Drew Smith will be coming back soon. He likely will still be in the bullpen mix for 2025.
- Brooks Raley is recovering and not expected to be available until mid 2025 at the earliest. He is a free agent in November. Thanks for the memories.
On the Farm
- Christian Scott figures to be in the 2025 starting rotation alongside holdovers Tylor Megill and David Peterson. Assuming Kodai Senga eventually returns that gives the team four starting pitchers to begin in Port St. Lucie next February.
- Joey Lucchesi probably has played himself out of the Mets.
- Blade Tidwell is in the too soon to tell category, but will get a long look in Port St. Lucie next year.
- Jose Butto had pitched quite well for the Mets and then until his last start just as well for Syracuse. He is now in that fringe range like Megill and Peterson have been for the past several years.
Reese, nice breakdown.
ReplyDeleteIt is easy to say to sell everybody, but then you have to rebuild the team. Not so easy. However, I think they’re going to make a concerted effort to get the 2024 salaries down, to minimize penalties, but you have to have a viable plan to replace whoever is traded with somebody that’s not garbage. I definitely see Tidwell, Sproat and honestly, I’m not sure who else getting called up next year as pitchers. Those two if they’re healthy or definites. McLean may also very well be in the pitching mix for 2025 possibly as early as opening day. Say prayers that these three stay healthy … beyond them , i have real doubts about vessel, Hamill and Suarez. Grvase maybe MLB capable, but then again he may not be. Jarvis out of the pen? Possibly, but it’s hard to see him as being more than mediocre right now.
Hitting wise, I was sure going into the season that Gilbert and Jett would be fully ready from day one in 2025 in meaningful roles, but with both of the missing so incredibly much time this year, that’s in doubt. Prada might be ready to be the back up catcher or he might not be. Acuna will be ready, but not necessarily as a star, more likely as a player who is just adjusting. David Stern has quite a job on his hands.
As of right now, I definitely pencil Tylor and Peterson in is two of my starters. How’s it with Houser? I would try to see if he can be successful out of the bullpen, because frankly the way he started this year I’m not sure any team would want him as a starter. And reinvent himself as a reliever of quality, like Brad Hand once did. Lindor has been hot, Nimmo I am concerned about with his several contract years left, as am I concerned with McNeil for the same reason.
Alonzo, I would not keep because I think that long-term free agent deals to a guy his age and player is a death trap , that said, I would trade Alonzo McNeil and Marte and keep Nemo for 2025, hoping that he plays better and that he rebounds because we can’t trade everyone unless next year planning on winning just 50 games. It’s hard to try to attract top level talent to a team that’s just been blown up completely .
I’m glad it’s not my job to try to fix this mess. It’s simply remarkable how this team, with injuries, etc., still managed to lose so many games over the last six weeks with what appears at first blush to be a still reasonably talented team. That reason alone, I blow the team up after the same thing happened in 2023. Move the fences in, to make good FA hitters want to come here.
My guess is that the subtle moves made last week is a slow start into the rebuild
ReplyDeleteProblems now lead to 2026 as the earliest possible timeline
ReplyDeleteSo the Problem here is that there is no boldness
If it was me I would target a star to trade for …. Luis Robert’s as a example but for me it would be do anything for Kyle Tucker
And by anything it’s trade one of Scott Tidwell or sproat…. Being bold is a suppose to hurt but he is a legit Superstar
And a franchise altering move… yes you over pay and you don’t look back
We never did with Piazza when we gave up the farm